Assumptions and Conditions:
- Ownership would prefer to get players through trade. That said, I think they have cut costs so much, and they realize they are 2 or 3 impact bats away from contention that this might be the season they go after someone in free agency (sadly, not Soto – too expensive).
- None of Gilbert, Woo, Miller, Kirby, or Castillo will be traded. Our pitching staff has the lowest ERA and highest strikeouts in the majors, and Dipoto has said outright none of these guys are on the table for trade talks.
- Our outfield is set with JRod, Arozarena and Robles with Haniger as the odd man out. He is either traded or winds up getting part time service to give other guys the day off.
- I assume JP will not be traded, nor will he be moved to 2B. He’s there till his contract runs out and some of our SS prospects start knocking on the door.
- I’m guessing Polanco will not be returning. There aren’t cost effective free agents out there which leaves trade, or in-house options. My plan has DMo getting a chance at the keystone – he’s already on our roster, and he’s better than Urias or Rivas. Maybe some every day reps at 2B will lead to more consistency at the plate.
- Urias, Rojas and Rivas are good utility guys, but nothing spectacular. We could part with any or all of them if we can upgrade.
- Biggest needs right now: 2B and 3B and DH.
- Garver is Garver. Maybe his bat will wake up next season. But at best, he's a serviceable backup catcher.
Trade: Marlins trade Jake Burger (3B), the Mariners trade Josh Rojas (INF/OF), Tyler Locklear (1B, Prospect), Taylor Dollard (RHP, Prospect) and Mitch Haniger (RF).
Rationale: the Marlins have a great, talented, young rotation, but it was plagued by injuries in 2024. That said, I think it is pretty much set in 2025, and because they don’t need starting pitchers, we could engineer a trade without parting with one of our starters. The Marlins are saying Burger could be an anchor at 3B, but the Marlins also have a hot prospect in Connor Norby who could be another long term answer at 3B. Rojas provides a ton of flexibility in both the infield and outfield, while Locklear is a nearly-MLB-ready 1B. Dollard was a rising prospect until he had labrum surgery in 2023 that impacted his 2024 season as well. He looks to be an Emerson Hancock kind of guy with excellent control. Haniger is a salary dump – while 4 guys for 1 may seem like an overpay, Dollard is a risk because he is coming back from surgery, and Haniger is a veteran, toss-in guy. We save money by trading him, and we get rid of a 4th outfielder.
In return, we get Burger who was one of the best power hitters in the second half of 2024. He has tons of team control (4 years of arbitration), and he is emerging as a legitimate power hitter at the hot corner. For the season, he slashed .250/.301/.460 with an OPS+ of 103. He had 29 homers, including a 11 in a 22 game stretch after the All-Star break. He’d be a stud at 3B. The M’s need a long term answer to 3B, and while there is some risk in Burger who struggled the first half of 2024, there is a lot of potential upside in one of the best promising power hitters (a 30+ home run guy). Plus, it's just fun to say "Burger".
Sign: Anthony Santander, 5 years, $110MM
OK. We need an impact bat. We are not going to get a difference-maker through trades given that we have junk position players and none of our starters are trade bait. It will take prospects, and I already gave up a couple of them to land Burger. What we need is a legitimate hitter to bat 4 or 5, and I think we need to ante up, and we need to offer a long term deal to secure a decent hitter. We need a Nelson Cruz.
Santander checks all the boxes. He’s only 29, so a long term deal doesn’t sting as much. He’s a switch-hitting, beast with the bat (.235/.308/.505 and a 134 OPS+). He had 44 homers last season, and he’s expected to hit around 40 every year, even in a pitcher’s park like T-Mobile. He plays right field, and with Haniger gone, he can play a backup role at RF while being primarily a DH. So yeah, he’s basically a younger version of Nellie, and he and Burger combined will significantly boost our offensive output.
Santander is the best hitter available in free agency not named Soto. He will be sought after, so we will have to splurge. Most pundits are predicting 5 years and $80-100MM. We might have to call and raise to $110MM, but I think it would be money well spent.
Sign: Aroldis Chapman, 1 year, $10MM
We have an amazing bullpen, especially with the return of Brash. But I think signing Chapman to a 1 year deal makes sense – Chapman is a bone fide, late inning reliever/closer. He still brings the heat (his fastball is consistently over 100 mph). Last year he had 14 saves, 98 strikeouts in 61.2 innings of work. He gives us a left handed power reliever. Plus, we offloaded Haniger to the Marlins, and this saved us $17.5MM next year which more than pays for a year of flame-throwing Chapman.
My plan offers a little realism (I think Burger is getable, and dumping Haniger’s salary frees up a little more money for dabbling in free agency) and a little wishful thinking (Santander would be an amazing addition, and while he is totally getable and even affordable, this move doesn’t jibe with approach the M’s have taken in the offseason the last few years). But I think this is the year the M’s take a risk. Maybe not a Soto, or Bregman, or Burnes, or Snell risk, but an actual attempt to hire the services of a legitimate middle-of-the-order power hitter. If we did these 3 simple moves, we would have one of the best rotations in baseball, one of the best outfields in baseball, and serious offensive upgrades at 3B and DH and the bullpen. We’d have to settle for Moore at 2B – anything else would be too expensive or bottom of the dumpster. Raley stays at 1B for this year.
Roster:
1. Victor Robles LF: .307/.381/.433/.814
2. Julio Rodriguez CF: .273/.325/.409/.734
3. Luke Raley 1B/OF: .243/.320/.463/.783
4. Randy Arozarena RF: .219/.332/.388/.720
5. Anthony Santander DH/RF: .235/.308/.505/.814
6. Cal Raleigh C: .214/.323/.422/.745
7. Jake Burger 3B: .250/.301/.460/.760
8. Dylan Moore 2B: .201/.320/.367/.687
9. JP Crawford SS: .202/.338/.368/.707
Bench: Leo Rivas Util, Luis Urias Util, Mitch Garver, C
1. Logan Gilbert
2. George Kirby
3. Luis Castillo
4. Bryce Miller
5. Bryan Woo
CL: Andres Munoz
HL: Matt Brash, Gregory Santos, Aroldis Chapman
ML: JT Chargois, Austin Voth, Gabe Spier
LL: Emerson Hancock, Trent Thornton