Off Season Plan 2.0 She's spicy.
Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2024 7:47 pm
Trade 1: Mariners trade 1B Tyler Locklear, RHP Luis Castillo to the Braves for 1B Matt Olson.
MLBTV Breakdown: I'm going to follow the MLBTV model that had Castillo at -$7.5 million on September 7th before his hamstring deal. The trade works out to $-7.5 million in Castillo + $12.4 million in Tyler Locklear = $4.9 million. Olson's trade value is $5.2 million on MLBTV, making the trade a wash.
M's Rationale: Yes, this means the M's do indeed trade from their starting rotation to upgrade positionally. If it's going to happen, Castillo is the piece that will be moved. The rationale is simple for the M's... you swap cash to add a major offensive upgrade to an infield you say needs a makeover. Olson had a down '24 but still hung 2.6 fWAR, 4.0 bWAR. He slashed .247/.333/.457/.790 with 29 homers and 98 RBI... but that doesn't tell the whole story. He hung a .911 OPS in August and a .954 OPS in September with 48 RBI's and 12 homers over those 2 months. Olson is known for DT's favorite stat, which is the opposite year production. 2017: 1.003 OPS, 2019: .896 OPS, 2021: .911 OPS, 2023: .993 OPS. So does the trend continue? We hope so. Olson is also a bat that does not need to be platooned as he hits lefties quite well.
Braves Rationale: The Braves are 2 starters short while heading into an offseason with the 3rd most committed money in baseball. Max Fried and Charlie Morton are both F/A's. While they will be looking to shed payroll, they could also be looking to swap payroll to get their rotation built out. The money and years are very similar on both contracts. Locklear gives them an MLB-ready option at 1B right away.
Trade 2: Mariners trade Harry Ford and Cole Young to the White Sox for LHP Garrett Crochet.
MLBTV Breakdown: Ford is valued at $21.4 million, Young at $22.1 million for a $43.5 million total. Crochet is valued $42.2 million, making this trade a wash.
M's Rationale: You've just traded Luis Castillo away and now fill the void with an arm that might make the M's rotation the best in MLB history. Easily the most dominant 1-5 anyone would have ever put out there. Crochet has had some injuries in his past, but pitched a full season in '24 and was dominant. He's cheap and controlled over the next 2 seasons. He'll only make $2.9 million this year and who knows in '26, but it won't be anything crazy. Ford is blocked and the M's have multiple middle infielders in the pipeline.
White Sox Rationale: I think this is a pretty damn good package for Crochet and it should be what Chicago is looking for. 2x top 50 prospects right on the cusp of being MLB ready as they rebuild.
Trade 3: Mariners trade OF Mitch Haniger, $6.5 million cash, RHP Troy Taylor, and RHP Michael Morales to the Angels for RHP Robert Stephenson.
MLBTV Breakdown: I'm not sure what Stephenson is valued at. But it has to be in the negative by a big margin... I'll guess somewhere in the ballpark of -$11 million which is what he's paid yearly. Haniger is valued at -$15.6. I'm accounting for the overpay you'd need for a team to take on Haniger and the fact that it's the Angels. I realize this is unlikely, but I'm trying to find teams that aren't competitive who can take on Haniger to shed veteran payroll off their current rosters.
M's Rationale: The M's have to get out from under Haniger's $17.5 million. Here is the dreaded trade where you attach some solid prospects to Haniger to make your money work better. Stephenson was signed to a 3-year $33 million deal heading into '24 but sat out all of '24 with an elbow injury and is slated to miss some early time in '25. In '23, Stephenson pitched to a 3.11 ERA with a .0879 WHIP. He's owed $22 million over the next 2 seasons which is expensive... but you're essentially making year one of Stephenson a wash with Haniger's money and then paying him the $11 million he's owed in '26.
Angels Rationale: They have no use for an expensive reliever over the next 2 seasons. They can afford to take on Haniger's money for 1 year and trade some of Stephenson's remaining contract for future salary relief and some solid pitching prospects in return. Their farm is a joke and needs building.
F/A Signing 1: M's sign 3B Yoan Moncada to a 1-year $5.5 million deal.
Rationale: Similar money to what Urias got. Moncada has delt with a lot of injuries but remains a young player with some positive upside. He's a solid defender with upside in the bat. Low-risk signing that could be a boom.
Roster:
1. Victor Robles RF
2. Randy Arozarena LF
3. Julio Rodriguez CF
4. Matt Olson 1B/DH
5. Cal Raleigh C
6. Luke Raley 1B/DH/OF
7. Yoan Moncada 3B
8. JP Crawford SS
9. Ryan Bliss 2B
Bench: Dylan Moore, Mitch Garver, Jason Vosler
1. Logan Gilbert
2. Garrett Crochet
3. George Kirby
4. Bryce Miller
5. Bryan Woo
CL: Andres Munoz
HL: Robert Stephenson, Matt Brash, Gregory Santos
ML/LL: Austin Voth, JT Chargois, Collin Snider
MLBTV Breakdown: I'm going to follow the MLBTV model that had Castillo at -$7.5 million on September 7th before his hamstring deal. The trade works out to $-7.5 million in Castillo + $12.4 million in Tyler Locklear = $4.9 million. Olson's trade value is $5.2 million on MLBTV, making the trade a wash.
M's Rationale: Yes, this means the M's do indeed trade from their starting rotation to upgrade positionally. If it's going to happen, Castillo is the piece that will be moved. The rationale is simple for the M's... you swap cash to add a major offensive upgrade to an infield you say needs a makeover. Olson had a down '24 but still hung 2.6 fWAR, 4.0 bWAR. He slashed .247/.333/.457/.790 with 29 homers and 98 RBI... but that doesn't tell the whole story. He hung a .911 OPS in August and a .954 OPS in September with 48 RBI's and 12 homers over those 2 months. Olson is known for DT's favorite stat, which is the opposite year production. 2017: 1.003 OPS, 2019: .896 OPS, 2021: .911 OPS, 2023: .993 OPS. So does the trend continue? We hope so. Olson is also a bat that does not need to be platooned as he hits lefties quite well.
Braves Rationale: The Braves are 2 starters short while heading into an offseason with the 3rd most committed money in baseball. Max Fried and Charlie Morton are both F/A's. While they will be looking to shed payroll, they could also be looking to swap payroll to get their rotation built out. The money and years are very similar on both contracts. Locklear gives them an MLB-ready option at 1B right away.
Trade 2: Mariners trade Harry Ford and Cole Young to the White Sox for LHP Garrett Crochet.
MLBTV Breakdown: Ford is valued at $21.4 million, Young at $22.1 million for a $43.5 million total. Crochet is valued $42.2 million, making this trade a wash.
M's Rationale: You've just traded Luis Castillo away and now fill the void with an arm that might make the M's rotation the best in MLB history. Easily the most dominant 1-5 anyone would have ever put out there. Crochet has had some injuries in his past, but pitched a full season in '24 and was dominant. He's cheap and controlled over the next 2 seasons. He'll only make $2.9 million this year and who knows in '26, but it won't be anything crazy. Ford is blocked and the M's have multiple middle infielders in the pipeline.
White Sox Rationale: I think this is a pretty damn good package for Crochet and it should be what Chicago is looking for. 2x top 50 prospects right on the cusp of being MLB ready as they rebuild.
Trade 3: Mariners trade OF Mitch Haniger, $6.5 million cash, RHP Troy Taylor, and RHP Michael Morales to the Angels for RHP Robert Stephenson.
MLBTV Breakdown: I'm not sure what Stephenson is valued at. But it has to be in the negative by a big margin... I'll guess somewhere in the ballpark of -$11 million which is what he's paid yearly. Haniger is valued at -$15.6. I'm accounting for the overpay you'd need for a team to take on Haniger and the fact that it's the Angels. I realize this is unlikely, but I'm trying to find teams that aren't competitive who can take on Haniger to shed veteran payroll off their current rosters.
M's Rationale: The M's have to get out from under Haniger's $17.5 million. Here is the dreaded trade where you attach some solid prospects to Haniger to make your money work better. Stephenson was signed to a 3-year $33 million deal heading into '24 but sat out all of '24 with an elbow injury and is slated to miss some early time in '25. In '23, Stephenson pitched to a 3.11 ERA with a .0879 WHIP. He's owed $22 million over the next 2 seasons which is expensive... but you're essentially making year one of Stephenson a wash with Haniger's money and then paying him the $11 million he's owed in '26.
Angels Rationale: They have no use for an expensive reliever over the next 2 seasons. They can afford to take on Haniger's money for 1 year and trade some of Stephenson's remaining contract for future salary relief and some solid pitching prospects in return. Their farm is a joke and needs building.
F/A Signing 1: M's sign 3B Yoan Moncada to a 1-year $5.5 million deal.
Rationale: Similar money to what Urias got. Moncada has delt with a lot of injuries but remains a young player with some positive upside. He's a solid defender with upside in the bat. Low-risk signing that could be a boom.
Roster:
1. Victor Robles RF
2. Randy Arozarena LF
3. Julio Rodriguez CF
4. Matt Olson 1B/DH
5. Cal Raleigh C
6. Luke Raley 1B/DH/OF
7. Yoan Moncada 3B
8. JP Crawford SS
9. Ryan Bliss 2B
Bench: Dylan Moore, Mitch Garver, Jason Vosler
1. Logan Gilbert
2. Garrett Crochet
3. George Kirby
4. Bryce Miller
5. Bryan Woo
CL: Andres Munoz
HL: Robert Stephenson, Matt Brash, Gregory Santos
ML/LL: Austin Voth, JT Chargois, Collin Snider
