My Arenado trade

[D-train]

[Bil522]

I think they'd want two arms...Logan and Emerson instead of Rojas

[D-train]

I think they'd want two arms...Logan and Emerson instead of Rojas

Sure. That would leave us with no SP depth but might still be worth it. Would they change their closer? Are they taking a step back with the NA salary dump?

[Seattle or Bust]

I doubt the Cardinals would have to add that much, or would be willing to add that much, in order to trade Arenado.

MLBTV has a real issue with these negative sum contracts. Players with this sort of $$, age, etc... are so seldom traded that I doubt they have a good baseline for it.

I bet you they can trade Arenado, attach a couple mid-tier prospects to him, throw in $10 million and call it a day.

[Pharmabro]

Hell yes, it takes care of three needs all at once!

3B: Nolan had a down year with the bat but there is reason to expect regression. (fly balls down, %HR down, etc) He is still an excellent defender at 3B. The Rockies are slated to pay 10M of the 74M he is owed, it looks good to me. M's would be on the hook for 27M, 22M, and then 15M. And because it is a salary dump you could see the M's pushing for the Cards to kick in say 10M? To me it all boils down to if Nolan A. regresses back to a guy that hits 25 bombs for you. If 8 more balls in play would have turned into HRs. vs outs he would have hit .284, .337, .450 =.787, (121 OPS+ and probably bumps him from 2.5 WAR to 3.5 or more. This trade depends on if you think he regresses to the norm with the power production at least a little bit. If not, last year's production from Dilly+ Rojas is nearly identical.
The BP guy being in hist last year of Arb. coming off a career year means he is not a bargain, and Brandon is a bump over Moore, Rivas, Bliss, Rojas at 2B to warrant taking on 64M in salary.

BP: Helsley is another back-end of the BP type. I see popping up on a lot of wish list. He was paid 3.8M for 2024 so before checking 5-6M in his last Arb. year? (6.9M for 2025) With a salary of 6.9M for one year that Calc figure of 14M looks off to me. It means if he was a free agent he would garner a 1year 21-million-dollar salary and that just doesn't compute.

2B/3B/OF Brendan Donavan: He has a decent bat 116 OPS+ career and is entering Arb 1 this year 3 to go. In 153 games this year he had 34 doubles, 1 triple, and 14 HR. (3.6M in 2025)

You know with the low # of prospect capital given up in place of a salary dump. This really shapes up for making a hell of a push. 37.5M in salary added in this trade for 2025.

Do my usual stuff: Just the big 5 Arb guys. (Randy, Kirby, Gilbert, Cal, & JTC), dump Jorge, and trade Mitch for prospects that has the M's sending 3-6M depending on trade package going out.

M's after salary dumps 123-126M +37.5M = 160-164M +/-.

1. Robles RF
2. Julio CF
3. Raley* 1B
4. Randy LF
5. Cal ** C
6. Nolan 3B
7. Donavan* 2B
8. ????????"?
9. JP* SS

??????? DH I could see the organization going cheap and slotting in Garver, T-Lock, Canzone, or rotating again. Garver/Canzone DH rotation might be OK.

But, I have an almost finished plan with Rooker in it where I said 4 top 100's totaling 60-ish M in MLB Trade Calc. gets it done. Rooker only adds 5M in 2025, but he is a top 10 hitter the league.

Bench: Garver C, Moore Utility, Bliss Inf., best of (Canzone, Marlowe, T-Lock, etc)

Thanks for the trade proposal DT. It caused me to have an interesting little adventure.

[Pharmabro]

I doubt the Cardinals would have to add that much, or would be willing to add that much, in order to trade Arenado.

MLBTV has a real issue with these negative sum contracts. Players with this sort of $$, age, etc... are so seldom traded that I doubt they have a good baseline for it.

I bet you they can trade Arenado, attach a couple mid-tier prospects to him, throw in $10 million and call it a day.

What do you mean by mid-tier? If you could provide a couple of mid-tier M's prospects that would be great.

The reason I ask for clarification is that some people will say there are only 5 Aces in the league at time X. I would counter that there are 30 #1 starters out there. I also appreciate that any number of starters are injured every year and sometimes you could say things like "DeGrom if healthy would be the best in the game".
For example, if I made the statement: "Aces are guys who have at least 5 FWAR" it means there are only 3 "Aces in baseball"
4-FWAR and above are "Aces" = the M's have 2 Kirby and Gilbert /10 Aces in MLB
And if I use FWAR for starters and the top 30, #30 is Kevin Gausman who had 2.9 WAR and is that the same bin as Chris Sale #1 with 6.4 F-WAR?

[Seattle or Bust]

I doubt the Cardinals would have to add that much, or would be willing to add that much, in order to trade Arenado.

MLBTV has a real issue with these negative sum contracts. Players with this sort of $$, age, etc... are so seldom traded that I doubt they have a good baseline for it.

I bet you they can trade Arenado, attach a couple mid-tier prospects to him, throw in $10 million and call it a day.

What do you mean by mid-tier? If you could provide a couple of mid-tier M's prospects that would be great.

I'm saying the Cardinals could do that and maybe get a lower-end MLB player back in the trade. I sincerely doubt they're trading Arenado thinking they'll have to attach legitimate prospects or big leaguers to him to get it done.

I don't the M's want to be on the hook for Arenado as he ages however.

[Pharmabro]

I doubt the Cardinals would have to add that much, or would be willing to add that much, in order to trade Arenado.

MLBTV has a real issue with these negative sum contracts. Players with this sort of $$, age, etc... are so seldom traded that I doubt they have a good baseline for it.

I bet you they can trade Arenado, attach a couple mid-tier prospects to him, throw in $10 million and call it a day.

What do you mean by mid-tier? If you could provide a couple of mid-tier M's prospects that would be great.

I'm saying the Cardinals could do that and maybe get a lower-end MLB player back in the trade. I sincerely doubt they're trading Arenado thinking they'll have to attach legitimate prospects or big leaguers to him to get it done.

I don't the M's want to be on the hook for Arenado as he ages however.

I don't know. I just don't know. To me it all comes down to if you are a big believer in a return of Nolan's ISO.

[D-train]

[GL_Storm]

I don't think Arenado is coming here. It isn't impossible, but it strikes me as very far-fetched that the Mariners would be willing to take on that salary, even with the Rockies paying some of it. And they should know by now that declining players and T-Mobile Park don't mix well.