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by Bil522 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:23 pm
A roundtable from the Athletic:
The Ravens released free safety Earl Thomas on Sunday, officially ending a tumultuous one-year union between the future Hall of Famer and one of the NFL’s best-run franchises.
The pairing seemed poised to be the last ingredient for a Super Bowl contender when Thomas signed a four-year, $55 million deal with Baltimore in March 2019, but the former Seahawks great never quite seemed to fit in with his new team. An on-field run-in with teammate Chuck Clark on Friday pushed the Ravens to jettison Thomas — a decision reportedly backed by veteran leaders in the Baltimore locker room — for behavior detrimental to the team, a contractual distinction that could allow the Ravens to recoup the $10 million in base salary it owed him for 2020.
The move also came after an offseason that included an altercation between Thomas and his wife, Nina, that led to her arrest and seemed to blindside the Ravens when it was first reported in May.
We gathered our local and national NFL writers to react to the news and ponder what’s next.
What was your first reaction to the news that the Ravens had officially moved on from Thomas?
Dan Pompei, NFL writer: I’m a little surprised because he’s such a valuable player, and it’s difficult, if not impossible, to replace someone like him in late August. I knew there were some issues brewing, but last year they made it work. John Harbaugh and Earl had their moments last season, but when Harbaugh was named coach of the year at the NFL Honors ceremony, Earl called him to congratulate him; he was ecstatic for him. But there are only so many times a player can step out of line before an organization like the Ravens is going to draw a line, no matter who the player is.
Mike Sando, NFL writer: The move felt inevitable the past couple days simply by how the Ravens handled the situation, and then also based on what I’d heard was happening over an extended period of time. This release was not a reaction to a single event. It was the Ravens’ reaching a point of no return. The writing was on the wall by Friday.
Jeff Zrebiec, Ravens writer: It was inevitable. This wasn’t one of these cases where Thomas had just sparred with a coach or two. He had several confrontations over the last year-plus with teammates, he missed or was late to many meetings, he wasn’t listening to coaches and he had shown very little interest in buying into the team concept. Many of the prominent members of the organization, and that includes players, were tired of his selfish antics and no longer felt his upside as a player exceeded the issues he was creating.
Michael-Shawn Dugar, Seahawks writer: I figured there had to be more to this story. Training camp fights happen every year so I didn’t understand why Baltimore would dump such a good player after just one incident. Then I read the context Jeff and others provided, and it all made sense. I can see why the Ravens are fed up.
Sheil Kapadia, NFL writer: I’m generally in favor of coaches exploring every avenue to make things work with a player as talented as Thomas. But when I read Jeff and others report that the team’s leadership council wanted Thomas gone, it made this situation different. In my experience, teammates will often overlook a player’s faults and mistakes if they think he can help them win. But in this situation, Thomas’ peers had clearly had enough. The Ravens gave it a one-year shot and ultimately decided that the risk of keeping Thomas outweighed the potential rewards.
Amy Trask, NFL insider: My immediate thought when this possibility arose was that I hope that the organization explained to the player leaders who communicated a desire (or urged) that the team move on without Earl that a decision to do so will have cash and cap consequences which could impact roster decisions going forward. I am not suggesting that it was the wrong decision to factor in player input, simply that if a team is going to factor in player input it, is important to give the players all relevant information. All of that said, I was not surprised when I learned that the Ravens made this decision official.
It’s hard to argue that Thomas didn’t at least help to elevate Baltimore’s defense in his lone season there (the Ravens were second in Football Outsiders’ weighted defensive DVOA in 2019 after finishing fourth in 2018), but it also seems like Thomas was never quite at home in the Ravens defense. Why do you think that is?
Pompei: He was playing in a new system and with new teammates. Thomas played in one system and in one place his entire career. It was going to be a process, but I thought he made clear progress through the course of the season, and I expected him to have a big season in 2020. The other thing is Thomas is a different guy. The Ravens saw that pretty quickly.
Sando: The word on Thomas is that he’s his own guy, does his own thing, doesn’t really take to coaching. That’s fine when he’s in a Seattle system he knows best and you’ve got a great leader next to him in Kam Chancellor, who could make sure the two of them were lined up properly and playing in sync. It’s less fine when you’re learning a new system and your new team is counting on you to fit in.
Zrebiec: The Ravens run a complicated defense, and Thomas’ role for so long in Seattle wasn’t all that complicated. It took Thomas a while to get comfortable with his role on Wink Martindale’s defense, but once he did, he played pretty well. He didn’t make the regular game-changing plays that he did in Seattle, but not all of that was his fault. He wasn’t targeted a whole lot and he still was working his way back from a significant leg injury. Martindale gave Thomas more and more defensive freedom as the season went on and Thomas took advantage of it.
Dugar: In Seattle, teammates looked up Thomas. He’s a Super Bowl champ, future Hall of Famer and was the best player on one of the best defenses of all-time. He had room to march to the beat of his own drum, and everyone was OK with that. Baltimore isn’t Seattle. When you come to someone else’s territory, you have to prove yourself all over again and, most importantly, play by their rules. This may be the first time in Thomas’ career he wasn’t playing by his own rules.
Kapadia: The two schemes couldn’t have been any more different. Thomas’ job in Seattle was to patrol the deep middle of the field and take away seams and post routes. Pete Carroll made sure Thomas knew that’s what he had to do above all else. The Ravens ran a blitz-heavy, man coverage scheme that asked Thomas to do many more different things. I thought he grew into the new role as the season progressed and had high expectations for him in 2020.
How much does Thomas’ release hurt Baltimore’s defense ahead of another season with Super Bowl aspirations?
Sando: It’s a big hit if we compare his absence to what the defense could have been like if Earl Thomas were buying in 100 percent, putting in extra study work and being a great teammate. However, if we acknowledge Baltimore was never going to get that type of buy-in from Thomas, then his departure can be addition by subtraction. It all depends upon what you think Thomas was going to contribute realistically under the circumstances.
Zrebiec: It hurts them, no doubt. For all the issues they were having with him, Thomas was far and away the team’s best free safety. Through his reputation alone, he was making an impact on games. The Ravens don’t have a proven free safety behind him. However, their secondary is otherwise loaded. Martindale has proven very adept at mixing and matching and using the pieces he does have. Young safeties DeShon Elliott and Geno Stone should get better as the season goes on. The Ravens have had to replace Pro Bowl defensive players on a pretty regular basis. This is a hit, but they’ll figure it out and still have a solid defense.
Dugar: I’m sure all of the offensive coordinators in the AFC North are checking alerts on their phones while sipping cognac with huge smiles on their faces.
Kapadia: There’s no doubt that it hurts. Even though the Ravens had growing pains last season and Thomas took some time to get used to his new role, they were the fourth-ranked pass defense in the league. Martindale likes to flood the field with defensive backs and is a very creative defensive coordinator. It feels like the Ravens will try to identify their six defensive backs and then figure out how to use them. Definitely a tall task with the opener a few weeks away, but I still view them as a Super Bowl contender.
Trask: In a “normal” season, losing a player of Thomas’ caliber can of course have a negative impact on a defense, even if only for purposes of depth. This season, given all of the associated additional challenges and uncertainties, it may have a greater negative impact. As such, as to the desire on the part of player leaders that the team move on, the adage “be careful what you wish for, you might get it” comes to mind. That said, this may give other players an option to excel in his absence, but from a depth standpoint (at a minimum) the team is weaker.
(Tommy Gilligan / USA Today)
How much does Thomas still resemble the player who was arguably the most important piece of the Legion of Boom defenses in Seattle?
Pompei: He’s 31 years old. There might not be any 31-year old safeties in the history of the game who are the same athletically as when they were 25, but they usually make up for it with experience. Thomas still has the ability to be a top tier safety, I believe.
Sando: I think he can still do many of the same things athletically. There are some age and injury concerns that, coupled with Thomas’ recent erratic behavior, should lead his next team to build in protections contractually.
Zrebiec: Thomas looked closer to that player early in this training camp than he did last year. He had lost some weight, was moving better and seemed to have more confidence in his legs. But obviously, he’s not that guy anymore. He’s 31 and has broken his leg two different times. He’s still a quality safety who makes an impact, though.
Dugar: Thomas was great at playing chess with opposing quarterbacks. He studied them, read their eyes, baited them into throws and then was superhuman enough to fly all over the field and disrupt the play. Even though some of his athletic ability faded due to age and wear and tear, his smarts will still be there. It may have been harder to apply them in a more complex system, but you don’t play the way Thomas did in 2019 without a high football IQ.
Kapadia: The following two statements are probably true: 1) Thomas is in the declining phase of his career, and 2) He’s still really good. Thomas has always been a highly instinctual player. At his best, he’s a guy who can clean up his teammates’ mistakes and limit big plays by opposing offenses. I’m curious to see whether the next scheme he plays in more resembles Seattle’s or Baltimore’s.
Trask: Thomas is older now and as such, some of his skills may be waning, but he may also now be extremely motivated to perform.
Finally, what team makes the most sense for Thomas now that he’s once again a free agent? After being released this late in training camp following a turbulent couple of years, do you expect a strong market for him?
Pompei: The market for him was disappointing last year. The Chiefs and Texans were players. I would expect that unless there is an unusual circumstance (an injury, a history with a coach, an abundance of cap space), teams will try to sign him at a discount.
Sando: I expect a cautious market that could be startling for a player of Thomas’ caliber. Conventional wisdom says Dallas still makes sense, but Kris Richard’s departure affects the fit, in my opinion. In general, I’d be looking for teams with coaches who have ties to Thomas, are under pressure to win now and would welcome star power on defense. The Falcons and Chargers are two such teams. Both have “name” strong safeties. Neither has star power at free safety. I just wonder if ultimately some teams might see too much downside in adding a high-profile player who appears unready to fit into an existing culture.
Zrebiec: I don’t expect a huge market for him. The Ravens are pretty respected around the league and they also are known for being pretty tolerant of difficult personalities. There’s no doubt that some teams will ask: If they couldn’t deal with Thomas, how will we deal with him? But there will be a few teams interested. Teams are willing to bet on talent and think a change of scenery will do a player some good.
Dugar: There’s definitely going to be a market, especially when you consider that he won’t be expensive to sign. Also, teams tend to (incorrectly) think that their locker room and culture could be the change of scenery that will “fix” a player who had issues elsewhere. So, even if Thomas was a problem in Baltimore, some general manager will think their building is the perfect spot for a top-five safety on a bargain deal. I wouldn’t be surprised if San Francisco, Atlanta, Dallas and Kansas City showed some interest.
Kapadia: They have some hurdles to make it work financially, but I think Sando’s Falcons suggestion makes a lot of sense. That’s a defense without much talent, and they play a high percentage of single-high coverages. It’s a coach and GM feeling pressure to win in 2020, and Quinn obviously has a pre-existing relationship with Thomas.
Trask: I do think there will be a market for him and of course that market will become stronger if and as teams lose players to injury, etc. I think a tremendous spot for him (for oodles of reasons) is New England.
I wouldn't replace Diggs with him. There's your nickel package right there.
