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Re: Remaining schedule
Posted: Wed Oct 11, 2023 1:31 pm
by douche
Re: Remaining schedule
Posted: Wed Oct 11, 2023 1:44 pm
by Michael K.
Sibelius Hindemith wrote: ↑Wed Oct 11, 2023 2:54 am
Odds are Bosa and McCaffrey will suffer season-ending injuries by week 12 and the Niners will be a different team late in the season.
McCaffrey played all of last year. Boss has only been hurt in one season. Not sure about that statement.
Re: Remaining schedule
Posted: Wed Oct 11, 2023 1:46 pm
by D-train
I can't believe we are still bad on third downs offensively. That has to be a play calling issue, right???
I bet if they committed to gaining 1 yard more than they needed for a 1st down EVERY third down instead of throwing behind the line to gain or a low % long pass it would go up dramatically.
Re: Remaining schedule
Posted: Wed Oct 11, 2023 2:53 pm
by Donn Beach
I doubt the biggest issue in gaining first down on a 3rd down play is falling short by a yard. 3rd down is pretty much an obvious pass play, the most obvious. I would guess its a function of issues with the passing offense generally. That and it's SSS. That's what I could deduce from this article.
So if we want to know a team's ability to covert 3rd downs, we're far better off looking at passing stats than previous 3rd down conversion rates. And a prediction model is far better off using those passing stats (pass efficiency, interception rate, sack rate) and excluding to-date 3rd down percentage
http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.co ... d.html?m=1
Re: Remaining schedule
Posted: Wed Oct 11, 2023 3:18 pm
by Sibelius Hindemith
But if they run pass plays that by design are likely to come up short of the necessary yards to gain then wouldn't it be fair to say it's more of a 3rd down issue than a passing execution issue?
Re: Remaining schedule
Posted: Wed Oct 11, 2023 4:26 pm
by Donn Beach
I don't think running pass plays that are designed to come up short is at the heart of the issue. One could probably watch a few hours of film and determine if it was
Re: Remaining schedule
Posted: Wed Oct 11, 2023 4:41 pm
by SeattleAddict
third down efficiency is mostly a product of the yards to gain... if you're always at 3rd and 1, you'll convert a higher percentage than 3rd and 10. In the Rams game especially we seemed to constantly get penalties and have 3rd and very long to kill drives. Being only 4 games into the season, that hasn't had a chance to even out.
It didn't help that the entire O-Line was out, so the running game wasn't consistent. It was either 1 yard or 10 every time they ran. Those consistent 4 yard runs that Pete wants put you in good position for short yardage.
The 3 yard passes on 3rd and 4 still happens once in a while, but not nearly as much as when Russ was pulling the trigger.
Re: Remaining schedule
Posted: Wed Oct 11, 2023 4:48 pm
by D-train
Re: Remaining schedule
Posted: Wed Oct 11, 2023 5:17 pm
by Donn Beach
SeattleAddict wrote: ↑Wed Oct 11, 2023 4:41 pm
third down efficiency is mostly a product of the yards to gain... if you're always at 3rd and 1, you'll convert a higher percentage than 3rd and 10. In the Rams game especially we seemed to constantly get penalties and have 3rd and very long to kill drives. Being only 4 games into the season, that hasn't had a chance to even out.
It didn't help that the entire O-Line was out, so the running game wasn't consistent. It was either 1 yard or 10 every time they ran. Those consistent 4 yard runs that Pete wants put you in good position for short yardage.
The 3 yard passes on 3rd and 4 still happens once in a while, but not nearly as much as when Russ was pulling the trigger.
That's true in terms of the yardage needed, that's a function of the previous plays.
Re: Remaining schedule
Posted: Wed Oct 11, 2023 6:57 pm
by Sibelius Hindemith
D-train wrote: ↑Wed Oct 11, 2023 4:48 pm
What do you conclude from that? It's not like Geno's tearing it up the few times he does throw to the middle of the field.