53 man roster projection

[D-train]

Can't fathom how Smith is still in the drivers seat to make the team because he has more horrible starts than Lynch.

The NFL preseason can sometimes feel like it’s played just to decide a handful of roster spots for every team. For all the fan and media discussion and position-battle debates, most teams usually already know at least 45 to 48 of the players who will make up their initial 53-man regular-season roster at the time camp begins.

But for the Seahawks, some of those bottom-of-the-roster battles appeared to only get more interesting during Thursday’s 22-14 win over Denver, in which backup quarterback Paxton Lynch and undrafted free-agent receiver Jazz Ferguson stole the show.

Here’s my latest guess at the Seahawks’ 53-man roster.

QUARTERBACKS
Keep: Russell Wilson, Geno Smith.

Cut: Paxton Lynch.

Comment: Lynch indeed had the better game statistically and may have closed the gap some on Smith. But it’ll take more than one game to alter the reasons why Smith is the presumed favorite for the backup job — notably, that he has significantly more experience in the NFL (31 starts to Lynch’s four). But Smith is now also having a cyst removed from his knee, and that could give Lynch some additional work in practices, and maybe even the next preseason game Aug. 18 at Minnesota, to make the race even tighter.

RUNNING BACKS
Keep: Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny, Bo Scarbrough, Nick Bellore.

Cut: C.J. Prosise, J.D. McKissic, Travis Homer, Xavier Turner.

Comment: Outside of Carson, Penny and Bellore — the assumption is Seattle will keep a fullback, and he’s all there is — little seems set at the tailback spot with Prosise, Homer and McKissic all sitting out the Denver game due to injury. Scarbrough had a few nice moments before he suffered a hand injury that isn’t serious, and for now, I’m moving him onto the 53, especially because it’s becoming clear the Seahawks could use Carson and Penny more in receiving roles this season. That might mean they don’t need to keep a specific third-down/two-minute back. But I reserve the right to change my mind on that.

RECEIVERS
Keep: Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Gary Jennings, David Moore, Jaron Brown, Jazz Ferguson.

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Cut: Amara Darboh, John Ursua, Terry Wright, Malik Turner, Keenan Reynolds.

Comment: OK, I’ll go along for the ride this week and add Ferguson, who statistically has been the best Seattle receiver in the mock game and first preseason game. But the competition figures to stiffen a bit the next two weeks as Seattle opponents play some of their regulars (or at least, the Vikings in Week 2 — it’s unclear if the Chargers will in Week 3). And how Ferguson does over the next 15 days or so in practices and preseason games will tell the real tale. Still, he’s becoming the most intriguing story in camp. Jennings may need to start producing a bit more to assure a spot. But his draft status (120th overall) and potential long-term role on the team feels as if it makes him safe.

TIGHT ENDS
Keep: Will Dissly, Nick Vannett, Jacob Hollister.

Cut: Ed Dickson, Jackson Harris, Wes Saxton.

Comment: George Fant’s sprained ankle might compel the Seahawks to keep another tight end around. But Dickson also is coming off knee surgery and is out another five weeks or so, and has a hefty contract — the team could save roughly $3.5 million releasing him. His injury complicates that decision, though — injured players can’t just be cut. For now, without knowing much more on Fant, I’ll stick with three tight ends and assume a move of some sort is made with Dickson.

OFFENSIVE LINE
Keep: Duane Brown, D.J. Fluker, Justin Britt, Mike Iupati, Germain Ifedi, George Fant, Ethan Pocic, Jamarco Jones, Joey Hunt.

Cut: Marcus Martin, Demetrius Knox, Jordan Roos, Elijah Nkansah, Jordan Simmons.

Physically unable to perform (PUP) list: Phil Haynes.

Comment: Fant’s injury also compels me to want to keep nine OLs for now. Pocic makes it as a backup at basically every spot, while the team appears to remain high on the potential of Jones — he played every snap Thursday against Denver, the only player to do so. The ninth spot is a coin flip — and as noted, the main reason I’m keeping nine is because of Fant’s injury — but for now I’ll go with Hunt, who has been a solid center and also has seen just enough time at the other spots to make the team think he could help out there in an emergency.

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DEFENSIVE LINE
Keep: Ezekiel Ansah, L.J. Collier, Poona Ford, Al Woods, Quinton Jefferson, Rasheem Green, Cassius Marsh, Earl Mitchell, Branden Jackson, Jacob Martin, Barkevious Mingo.

Cut: Jamie Meder, Nazair Jones, Jay-Tee Tiuli, Bryan Mone.

Suspended list: Jarran Reed.

PUP list: Demarcus Christmas.

Comment: OK, on the surface 11 DLs seems too many. But Mingo and Martin are both sort of hybrid guys who can also play linebacker — particularly Mingo, who started at the strongside spot last year. Injury situations for Ansah and Collier also complicate things. Who knows if either will be available Week 1 or how much they would be able to play, and also complicating things is Reed’s suspension — Seattle may want to keep four true DTs for the first six weeks while he is out, then dumping one once he returns. That had my last few decisions coming down to Jackson, Mitchell and Meder, the latter a true run-stuffing specialist who might be needed while Reed is out. I sided with Jackson and Mitchell for now — Jackson’s ability to play the five-technique end spot may also be needed if Collier isn’t ready Week 1.

Seahawks’ Shaquem Griffin tackles Denver’s Devontae Booker during the preseason game at CenturyLink Field on Thursday, August 8. (Rebekah Welch / The Seattle Times)
Seahawks’ Shaquem Griffin tackles Denver’s Devontae Booker during the preseason game at CenturyLink Field on Thursday, August 8. (Rebekah Welch / The Seattle Times)
LINEBACKERS
Keep: Bobby Wagner, K.J. Wright, Mychal Kendricks, Austin Calitro, Cody Barton, Shaquem Griffin.

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Cut: Ben Burr-Kirven, Justin Currie, Chris Worley, Juwuan Johnson.

Comment: Wagner, Wright and Kendricks are set as the starting three. But the news that Kendricks will be sentenced on Sept. 25 adds yet another complication to the roster construction, and may assure Mingo — who, as noted, started last year at the same SLB spot that Kendricks has been handling this season — will make it (if you assume he’s in any trouble). Calitro had a quietly solid game against Denver and has been quietly solid all of camp while Barton was an early training-camp star who got some action Thursday and whose roster spot is secure. A final LB spot may well come down to Shaquem Griffin or Burr-Kirven. Seattle’s investment in the two is almost exactly the same — Griffin was pick 141 in 2018 and Burr-Kirven was pick 142 in 2019. Griffin also for now has a specific special-teams role that could give him an edge as the up back on the punt team (he handled it most of Thursday before DeShawn Shead took over at the end). For today, a slight lean to Griffin for his special-teams roles and that he has played more SLB. But that could change weekly. And it’s worth noting how Carroll volunteered praise of how Burr-Kirven helped set up Shead’s blitz that resulted in a safety. That’s the kind of headiness Burr-Kirven was known for at UW. If he shows a bit more of that, he may be hard to keep off the roster.

CORNERBACKS
Keep: Shaquill Griffin, Tre Flowers, Akeem King, Neiko Thorpe.

Cut: Jeremy Boykins, Jamar Taylor, Simeon Thomas, Kalan Reed.

Comment: One quick note is that Ugo Amadi, who I have making the team as a safety, can also play nickel. So that’s sort of like 4½ corners on the roster. King has been used increasingly as a backup on the outside as well as a nickel, where he appears to be the starter. Thorpe remains one of the team’s best special-teams players — he had a really nice tackle in punt coverage early Thursday. All the other corners seem like players Seattle might be able to call on later in the year, if needed.

SAFETIES
Keep: Bradley McDougald, Tedric Thompson, Lano Hill, Marquise Blair, Ugo Amadi.

Cut: Shalom Luani, Marwin Evans, Jalen Harvey, DeShawn Shead

Comment: For now, I’m sticking with Hill as one of the five to make it even though he has yet to do anything in camp. But he will be one of the most interesting players to watch over the next two weeks, especially after Seattle got a good, early look at both Blair and Amadi on Thursday. If the team thinks Blair is ready for everything now than maybe Seattle only needs to keep four safeties. Blair is obviously a keeper (he already was, but Thursday just reinforced what a key role he figures to play for the franchise going forward) and Amadi appears to be, as well. And given that he’s basically been the only safety healthy and available the entire offseason, Thompson seems a keeper, too, along with the obvious lock of McDougald. So that could make a final call between Hill and Shead. Shead proved he still has a lot to offer with his play Thursday, and that he can handle some significant special-teams roles only increases his potential value. Luani also is a tough one to cut given how dependable he has been so far in the offseason. Maybe Seattle keeps 10 defensive backs and gets one or the other of Shead or Luani on the roster.


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SPECIAL TEAMS
Keep: PK Jason Myers, P Michael Dickson, LS Tyler Ott.

Comment: These are the only kicker, punter and snapper the Seahawks have on the roster, so the special-teams battery is set. One aside — it seemed somewhat surprising the early angst over Myers missing a 56-yard field goal Thursday considering no Seahawk has ever made one as long as that in the history of CenturyLink Field (the longest is 55 by Josh Brown in 2005, the same distance Myers hit from later in the game).

[D-train]

Thoughts on Ferguson. I would love two big WRs. Was it just a fluke vs. guys that will never see the light of the regular season or does he make the team and contribute?

PFF SEA Seahawks
@PFF_Seahawks
·
38m
WR Jazz Ferguson was the #Seahawks' highest-graded player in the preseason opener with an elite overall grade of 90.2.

He generated a perfect passer rating of 158.3 and forced two missed tackles.

[ThePro]

Thoughts on Ferguson. I would love two big WRs. Was it just a fluke vs. guys that will never see the light of the regular season or does he make the team and contribute?

PFF SEA Seahawks
@PFF_Seahawks
·
38m
WR Jazz Ferguson was the #Seahawks' highest-graded player in the preseason opener with an elite overall grade of 90.2.

He generated a perfect passer rating of 158.3 and forced two missed tackles.

I wouldn't say fluky but he has to actually do something against somebody that is gonna make the other teams roster.

[Michael K.]

I love it that Geno's history of sucking is why we should keep him. Huh? He has started a lot of games, he was terrible in those games, but the fact that he played means we should keep him? Yep because the Jets always make amazing decisions.

Sorry, that is stupid. He looked like shit Thursday, and now magically he has a cyst on his knee? The dude sucks, he sucked his entire pro career, but a bad Jets team drafted him high, so let's keep giving him chances?

[ThePro]

I love it that Geno's history of sucking is why we should keep him. Huh? He has started a lot of games, he was terrible in those games, but the fact that he played means we should keep him? Yep because the Jets always make amazing decisions.

Sorry, that is stupid. He looked like shit Thursday, and now magically he has a cyst on his knee? The dude sucks, he sucked his entire pro career, but a bad Jets team drafted him high, so let's keep giving him chances?

Spit water everywhere..

[D-train]

I love it that Geno's history of sucking is why we should keep him. Huh? He has started a lot of games, he was terrible in those games, but the fact that he played means we should keep him? Yep because the Jets always make amazing decisions.

Sorry, that is stupid. He looked like shit Thursday, and now magically he has a cyst on his knee? The dude sucks, he sucked his entire pro career, but a bad Jets team drafted him high, so let's keep giving him chances?

Well he did do this in the mock game. Never in my life have I seen a QB throw a ball off a cross bar so perfectly that it ricocheted all the way back to the LOS!!! That takes some skills bro.

The highlight of the day came near the end of scrimmaging, when a ball by quarterback Geno Smith ricocheted hard off the crossbar into the hands of Poona Ford. The second-year defensive tackle, urged on by the crowd and his teammates, ran the length of the field for the touchdown.

The play didn't count, but it still elicited the loudest cheers on Saturday.

"He's going to do that again sometime," Carroll joked. "He looked pretty good. He was a running back in high school, just so you know."

[D-train]

I brought it up with Condotta and he had a predictable response.................

https://twitter.com/DarrenWarner2/statu ... 2376517632

begs the question, would you rather be throwing to 1st team receivers vs. a 1st team D or throwing to backup receivers vs. a back up D. Seems to be pretty much a wash to me.

[HawkBowler 2.0]

Cut: Jamie Meder, Nazair Jones, Jay-Tee Tiuli, Bryan Mone.

I hope this is not the case. Losing Naz Jones would be a bummer.

[D-train]

Cut: Jamie Meder, Nazair Jones, Jay-Tee Tiuli, Bryan Mone.

I hope this is not the case. Losing Naz Jones would be a bummer.

Dude! Welcome! Glad you finally came to your senses and the promised land!!!!!!!!!

[ThePro]

I brought it up with Condotta and he had a predictable response.................

https://twitter.com/DarrenWarner2/statu ... 2376517632

begs the question, would you rather be throwing to 1st team receivers vs. a 1st team D or throwing to backup receivers vs. a back up D. Seems to be pretty much a wash to me.

Geno sucks.. I like Paxton Lynch's energy. And it seems like he has completely bought in. Isn't that what Carroll wants from his players?