Good look at the 2023 QB draft class

[D-train]

This former Seahawk Scout warns that a lot could change but we will have options if Lock still sucks.

By Bob Condotta
Seattle Times staff reporter
As Drew Lock and Geno Smith battle to be Seattle’s quarterback in 2022, it’s hard not to also think about 2023.

Maybe, of course, Seattle’s QB a year from now will be one of Lock or Smith.

Certainly, the Seahawks are holding out every hope that Lock, who is only 25 years old, can fulfill the expectations that greeted him as the 42nd overall pick of the 2019 draft and show he could legitimately be the team’s long-term answer at quarterback in the post-Russell Wilson era.

But first, he has to beat out Smith, who during the first two weeks of OTAs (organized team activities) has been running the first team. Smith has earned that status in large part due to his three previous years with the team, which has helped make him a popular presence in the locker room with teammates; his performance in three games last year as a backup (notably, a 5-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio); and what is for now superior knowledge of the playbook.

And Pete “Always Compete” Carroll undoubtedly also sees value in challenging Lock to make him earn the job on the field.


(For now, former UW and Lake Stevens star Jacob Eason, the only other QB on the roster, doesn’t appear a legitimate contender for the starting job.)

But Smith also turns 32 in October, and fair or not, his status as a backup for the last seven years since he was the primary starter for the Jets in 2013 and 2014 leaves the impression he’d be a temporary solution if he were to win the job, a scenario that would also mean Lock isn’t the long-term future.

Which would simultaneously seem to put Seattle back at square one at quarterback, unless the team does something else at the position this season such as add Baker Mayfield. All signs, though, continue to indicate that would only happen if Mayfield is released by Cleveland, with Seattle (and apparently every other team) uninterested in making a trade and picking up his $18.8 million guaranteed salary for 2022.

And a report this week stated the Browns will not cut Mayfield, hoping (against hope?) to eventually find a trade partner to take on at least some of that salary.

The Wilson trade and Seattle’s QB depth chart had many national pundits expecting the Seahawks to take a quarterback in the 2022 draft.

But despite having four of the first 72 picks and ultimately nine overall, Seattle didn’t select a QB.

That led some to conclude the team really does believe in the potential of Lock and wants to give him a fair shot.

There’s undoubtedly truth in that.

But maybe more to the point is that the 2022 QB class ended up being considered as lackluster as any in recent memory, with only one taken in the first round — Kenny Pickett of Pitt to the Steelers at 20th overall, the first time only one QB went in the first round since 2013.

No worries, many pointed out.

With two picks in the first round in 2023 and two more picks in the second — its own and Denver’s via the Wilson trade in each round — Seattle has all the assets it needs to move up as far as it would need to get whichever QB it might want a year from now should QB still be a need then.

And that’s a class that on paper appears to be loaded at quarterback, led by 2021 Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, who was fourth in the voting.

To this, former Seahawk scout Jim Nagy, who is now executive director of the Senior Bowl, says not so fast, noting that many mock drafts this time a year ago had a handful of quarterbacks going in the first round, just as the ones do now for 2023.

And while it’s easy to criticize mock drafts, they are often largely a reflection of what is the general consensus of both analysts and NFL personnel at the time.

“I think that’s kind of a lazy narrative that happens every year,” Nagy, a Seahawks scout from 2013-18, said recently in a phone interview of the idea that teams might have passed on QBs this year because next year’s class will be stronger. “It’s almost like the Alabama running back narrative, that whoever the next Alabama running back is he’s going to be better than the last guy.

“If we rewind the calendar to a year ago, everyone was mocking Spencer Rattler as the No. 1 overall pick and Sam Howell as a top five pick and Emory Jones as a top 10 pick.”

You may not need reminding that none of that happened.

Jones, who Pro Football Focus had going sixth overall in a 2022 mock draft published in May 2021, instead had a middling season at Florida last year and recently transferred to Arizona State. Rattler, likewise, lost his job at Oklahoma and transferred to South Carolina while Howell didn’t put up the same numbers in 2021 as in 2020 and fell to the fifth round of the draft, passed over by apparently QB-needy Seattle five times.

It’s also easy to find mock drafts from this time a year ago that have other QBs taken in the first round such as J.T. Daniels (a former USC Trojan who recently transferred for a second time from Georgia to West Virginia), Kedon Slovis (who, like Daniels, began his career at USC and recently transferred to Pitt) and Carson Strong (who despite a strong statistical year at Nevada went undrafted).

And Pickett, the one QB who did go in the first round in 2022, was generally considered a mid-round pick at best at this point a year ago, further illustrating how much things can change.

“It’s premature,” Nagy says of anointing next year’s QB class as full of potential franchise saviors. “We can sit here and talk about how good next year is going to be, but only time will tell with those guys.”

The Seahawks, though, will undoubtedly be watching the top QB prospects of 2023 closely.

Here’s a look at 10 QBs who, for now, appear to be among the top prospects for the 2023 draft:

Bryce Young, Alabama
The 6-foot, 190-pound Young is rated No. 2 on ESPN draft maven Mel Kiper Jr.’s 2023 Big Board behind his teammate, linebacker Will Anderson. Seattle hopes its season won’t be that bad to draft him there, but maybe it could get him with a trade up if necessary? Whether Young can be a success in the NFL at his height, though, figures to be highly debated as the draft nears. “His size is absolutely going to get picked apart next year,” Nagy said.

C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
Stroud is right with Young as the top QB prospect in the draft, and his size is not an issue — Stroud is 6-3, 218. What will be debated is the history of Ohio State QBs struggling to make the transition to the NFL — his stock might be helped if Justin Fields has a big second year with the Bears. Said Nagy: “C.J. Stroud is going to get picked apart because he’s coming from Ohio State and he’s going to face the whole Ohio State thing they all face of when was the last good one (in the NFL?)”

Tyler Van Dyke, Miami
Kiper has Van Dyke as his third QB on his Big Board following Young and Stroud. Van Dyke has the requisite size — 6-4, 224 — and a 25-6 TD-to-INT ratio last season in his first year as a starter.

Will Levis, Kentucky
The 6-3, 232-pound Levis, who played sparingly at Penn State in 2019 and 2020, was a revelation in his first year at Kentucky in 2021, leading the Wildcats to a 10-3 season while throwing for 24 TDs and rushing for nine more.

Anthony Richardson, Florida
Richardson has yet to start a game for the Gators and has thrown just 59 passes in two seasons. But he’s already getting first-round buzz — Kiper has him 13th on his Big Board — due to eye-popping tangibles (he’s listed at 6-4, 237), a rocket arm and an impressive performance in spring practice. Oh, and check out his 80-yard TD run last September against South Florida.

Cameron Ward, Washington State
Yep, WSU fans, a QB you have yet to see play is already getting talked about as a potential first-rounder next spring. The 6-2, 223-pound Ward comes to WSU after spending two years at FCS Incarnate Word, where he averaged 357.5 passing yards per game in 2021. A recent USA Draft Wire mock draft had Ward, who is a cousin of Seahawks safety Quandre Diggs, going fifth overall — to, well, the Seahawks. College Football News, meanwhile, recently ranked Ward fourth on its list of QB draft prospects for 2023. Wrote Luke Easterling of Draft Wire: “Ward could be a superstar for the Cougars this season, and a top-10 pick wouldn’t be far-fetched.”

D.J. Uiagalelei, Clemson
His performance last season — a 9-to-10 TD-to-INT ratio — during what was for Clemson a disappointing season has raised some questions about his NFL future, and he has to prove some things this year. But then there’s that rocket arm and that 6-4, 240-pound frame coupled with enough mobility to rush for 308 yards last year.

Tanner McKee, Stanford
Stanford went just 3-7 in McKee’s 10 starts last season in his first year as the starter, so this one is all about projection. But more than a few draft analysts think he could go high next year if he declares — Pro Football Focus recently rated him third on its list of top five QB prospects for 2023 behind Young and Stroud writing “in his first season as a starter last season, he showed a number of high-end NFL traits.” Those traits included leading the Pac-12 last year with a 65.4% completion percentage. And a recent mock from The Athletic had McKee going 25th overall — to Seattle.

Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
The 6-4, 218-pounder had Russell Wilson-like stats in his first season with the Vols after transferring from Virginia Tech with an astounding 31-3 TD-to-INT ratio and 616 yards rushing on 137 attempts. That Tennessee went just 7-6 last year is the only reason there isn’t more buzz.

Jake Haener, Fresno State
Fresno State quarterback Jake Haener rolls out looking for an open receiver during the first half of the New Mexico Bowl NCAA college football game against UTEP Saturday, Dec. 18, 2021, in Albuquerque, New Mexico. (Andres Leighton / AP)

Fresno State quarterback Jake Haener rolls out looking for an open receiver during the first half of the New Mexico Bowl NCAA college football game against UTEP Saturday, Dec. 18, 2021, in Albuquerque, New Mexico. (Andres Leighton / AP)
OK, so the former Husky may not be yet considered as much of an NFL prospect as most of the others on this list. But he’s definitely on the radar, even if at 6-1, 195 there will always be questions about his size. His production, though, isn’t an issue after he threw for 4,096 yards last season at Fresno State including a combined 753 against Oregon and UCLA in a close loss to the Ducks and a win over the Bruins. But he also no longer has his coach, Kalen DeBoer, now at UW.

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/sea ... -just-yet/

[SeattleAddict]

I'd like to pin this, then get a new look right after the college season ends, then again right before the draft. The amount of change that happens in this kind of thing at those three points is always amazing. Then 2 years later, all the projections were wrong anyway.

Hell, we don't even know if we'll have the #3 overall pick, or the #30.

[D-train]

I'd like to pin this, then get a new look right after the college season ends, then again right before the draft. The amount of change that happens in this kind of thing at those three points is always amazing. Then 2 years later, all the projections were wrong anyway.

Hell, we don't even know if we'll have the #3 overall pick, or the #30.

I can make that happen.

[D-train]

I'd like to pin this, then get a new look right after the college season ends, then again right before the draft. The amount of change that happens in this kind of thing at those three points is always amazing. Then 2 years later, all the projections were wrong anyway.

Hell, we don't even know if we'll have the #3 overall pick, or the #30.

I think we will have the 1st and 32nd. Not sure which will be which.

[Sexymarinersfan]

I'd like to pin this, then get a new look right after the college season ends, then again right before the draft. The amount of change that happens in this kind of thing at those three points is always amazing. Then 2 years later, all the projections were wrong anyway.

Hell, we don't even know if we'll have the #3 overall pick, or the #30.

I can make that happen.

The 2023 quarterback class is incredibly intriguing. Although C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young get most of the attention — Will Levis and Tyler Van Dyke, for me, are the top two quarterback prospects as of today. Both players are incredibly exciting. Plus there’s always a chance more players will emerge as the new college season develops.

If you look around the internet you’ll see all kinds of weird and wonderful predictions. The hype is out of control already. So much so that pretty much any quarterback who played well in college last season is being touted as a potential first rounder.

For example, I read a list recently that had Spencer Rattler, Jake Haener and Jaren Hall projected as viable options for the ‘early first round’ as the third, fourth and fifth best prospects at the position.

It was a perfect example that silly season is here eight months earlier than usual.

None of those three players, at this point, deserve to be discussed as first round prospects. It doesn’t mean they can’t work their way into that conversation with their play in 2022. Seattleaddict is right.. Players always emerge, develop and promote their stock. After all, Joe Burrow was seen as a late day three pick before his final season at LSU. Zach Wilson emerged from nowhere to be the #2 pick in 2021. Nobody was talking about Kenny Pickett as a first rounder 12 months ago either.

Yet we also need to be realistic about these players. Even among the consensus ‘best two’ (Bryce Young & C.J. Stroud) I think there’s a lot of misinformation and hype out there.

As of today, I think there are four quarterbacks you can say with some degree of confidence deserve to be talked about as a potential day one pick…

[D-train]

I think Van Dyke is my guy at this point. Thanks for the thoughts everyone.

[Pharmabro]

From what I saw on Saturday Kenny Pickett(22) looked pretty good.
I am kinda still wondering why they did not get the speedster that went #86 Willis I guess they would have had to give up #72 OT Lucas or probably #109 Bryant+ more to get Malik Willis.

Maybe they chose correctly. Maybe Lock develops?

[SeattleAddict]

I didn't watch any, but two of our top prospects actually played against each other: Levis with Kentucky vs Richardson of Florida.

Levis went 13-14, 202 1 TD, 1 INT... QBR 40.4
Richardson: 14/35 143 0, 2..... QBR 3.8 (lol)

Obviously, this doesn't mean that much, but both teams were top 20, so it's valid tape against legit opponents (the other guys mostly played against nobodies)

[D-train]

I didn't watch any, but two of our top prospects actually played against each other: Levis with Kentucky vs Richardson of Florida.

Levis went 13-14, 202 1 TD, 1 INT... QBR 40.4
Richardson: 14/35 143 0, 2..... QBR 3.8 (lol)

Obviously, this doesn't mean that much, but both teams were top 20, so it's valid tape against legit opponents (the other guys mostly played against nobodies)

Why only 14 PAs for Levis I wonder. I'm loving Penix. Can't wait to see what he does vs. a legit D Saturday.

[D-train]

Hey Penix is available in 2023. Hopefully they are driving from the VMAC across the Pond to Montlake to scout him..

One-Liner:
QB with a booming arm that is best in a 5-wide, short passing game that attacks deep off of play-action and has solid maneuverability to his right to make off-platform throws but has poor throwing mechanics, struggles under pressure and is largely pre-determined with his reads.

Evaluation:
Michael Penix Jr has many tools of the modern-day franchise QB. It starts with his booming arm - fueled by insane upper body strength - that can make all the throws on the field, stretching defenses vertically and horizontally with ease. His deep ball accuracy is admirable and fun to watch when he drops balls into a bucket deep down the sideline. Furthermore, he has great feel for slot fades and has astute ball placement, outside and away from the CB to give his WR a chance. Penix Jr displays great timing out of 5-wide quick game concepts, especially over the middle of the field on Mesh and Spacing concepts. He shows good feel and understanding of when his receiver has a pre-snap leverage advantage and with the great velocity he puts on the ball, Penix Jr can complete passes into tight coverage with ease. In addition, his overall toughness is on display with how he likes to hang in the pocket and play within it, taking timely hits when he knows he can still deliver the ball in time. When necessary, Penix Jr shows exciting flashes of maneuvering the pocket to his right and while the technique isn’t always pretty, he makes eye-popping fadeaway throws off his back foot - 20, 30, 40 yards downfield. There are plays and drives where Penix Jr looks like a potential first-round QB; however, there are far too many moments where he also looks like he may never make the NFL. Mechanics will be his biggest needed improvement - he’s an upper-body dominant thrower who has a long windup but snappy release that doesn’t transfer energy efficiently from his lower body, causing misses high. Furthermore, Penix Jr rarely fully follows through with his hips on crossing routes, causing him to miss left-right. He also struggles with inconsistent and clunky footwork with heel clicks on his drop and loses his already shaky mechanics when under pressure, often throwing off his back foot with no balance in his base. The mental game is the next biggest improvement area for Penix Jr, as he is largely a pre-determined QB who will stare down his reads and make throws before he processes defenders post-snap leverage. In addition, while he shows good timing on throws over the middle of the field, he is often late on sideline throws like deep outs and comebacks, leading to turnover-worthy plays. QB with a booming arm that can make any throw on the field and has extremely accurate deep balls. Best in an up-tempo, 5-wide, short passing game offense that targets the middle of the field for rhythm throws, then attacks deep off of play-action. Likes to hang in the pocket but has solid maneuverability to his right to make off-platform throws. Poor throwing mechanics that rely on his upper body and lack follow-through from the hips, leading to misses high, left and right. Struggles to speed up his process and maintain mechanics while under pressure and is a largely pre-determined QB with his reads. Has the tools to become an above-average starter but needs plenty of developmental time on a patient team.

Grade:
7th Round