Rumors about Geno extension

[Bil522]

Geno arguably played the 49ers better than Dak Prescott.

Agreed.

Not in week 2. I would say that facing a team three times might give him a bit of an edge. And if you grade it by quarters? He sucked for four quarters early in the season, had about one and a half good quarters at the end of the season and two good quarters in the playoffs. So, 3.5 out of 12? Decent, but? If Prescott gets 8 more quarters, is he not going to out perform that? I think the way Geno finished the season may not have cost him money, but it might have cost him money here. Someone is going to pay him, but we watched first hand how we went from 6 and 3 to 9 and 8. How we lost to every team in the worst division in football. How we got outscored 10 to fucking 3 in the second half against Atlanta to lose. 22 to 13 to the Saints in the second half to lose, how coming off the best stretch of football we've played in some time we scored 3 points over the first three quarters against Tampa, turned the ball over on the first two possessions to lose to Carolina, had six points in the first three quarters against the Niners, needed a last minute TD to beat a Rams team missing everyone, scored 3 points in the first 3 quarters against the Chiefs, and needed a FG in OT to score 19 against the Rams the next time.

Read that again, and then think if this really is the SAFE play that everyone wants us to believe. Geno had a decent year, but in games we lost, and there were almost as many of those as we won, he was pretty bad in many of them. Especially for stretches. The Consistency that everyone claims we had? Sorry, wasn't there, and Geno was not consistent. Hell, in the first win against the Cards he was 20 of 31 for less than 200 yards and no TDs. He greatly outperformed what I had expected, but I am not so sure he was as great as many say. Add to the above that he was terrible in the second half against Denver, and he had some stretches of bad football where the offense was real bad.

Did Geno perform well when he did not have a running game/o-line performing decently? This needs to be a balanced offense. It was the EXACT same with Russell. I know some want to throw the ball most every down....that will never happen. Geno is the epitome of game manager. He needs a better o-line and effective run game to be successful.

I think the Hawks offer him a 3yr $75 mill deal with $50 mill guaranteed and then draft a QB for the future

[ddraig]

Tier Two QB's, and I wouldn't rate Geno higher than that, pull down about $30 million. The Seahawks may be able to get him down to $25 million plus incentives, but I still think I'd go with Lock, save roughly $20 million, and then sign a couple of good, front seven, defensive players.

[Michael K.]

This needs to be a balanced offense. It was the EXACT same with Russell. I know some want to throw the ball most every down....that will never happen. Geno is the epitome of game manager. He needs a better o-line and effective run game to be successful.

I think the Hawks offer him a 3yr $75 mill deal with $50 mill guaranteed and then draft a QB for the future

So, a guy you flat out LABELED as a game manager deserves FIFTY guaranteed and $25 per year? That is my point. No one is saying he doesn't need a supporting cast, but in your own words, we now get into the EXACT same as Russ. We pay him and lose the guys around him and wonder why he isn't as good. You made my point for me. Look again at the list of rather below average games Geno put out there and tell me he needs $25 to $30 million a year. Or, better yet, that WE need to PAY him that? Does THIS team get better saving the money and upgrading elsewhere? If the money saved on Geno is used for the Hargrave or Payne, are we better or worse?

You basically said we need a game manager, then said we have to pay him. If Geno is a game manager, use the money on someone else, resign Lock and draft a guy. Paying these guys then making the excuse that the talent around them isn't good enough is what we already did. It's what the Packers have done. Notice we are both on the outside looking in right now?

[douche]

I don't think Smith is worth that kind of money, but then I don't think any QB is. When you look around the league and see Prescott making $40 mil per and Cousins making a boatload (both guys who haven't won anything), it's not hard to see that the position is overpaid. But try and sign a guy to a lot less money who's any good. Then amplify that difficulty by trying to win a championship with that guy on a low salary before his contract needs to be renewed. Not an easy thing to do. SEA did it with Wilson, but can lightning strike twice? Especially in light of the fact that these GMs have blown the going rate for a quarterback right out of the water.

Now if every team adopted the same approach and refused to overpay at the position, things would be different. But we all know that will never happen.

If SEA can't sign Smith, someone else will, and they will pay handsomely because that's what the market dictates. Either way, Smith will be paid.

Thankfully, JS and PC are saddled with the decision regarding Smith. Of course, it all depends on their vision for the roster and how it fits their salary cap.

[Michael K.]

I have to think that this organization might look at the fact that the last guy the started as a rookie was a third rounder no one wanted, and that this year they started a veteran that no one wanted? They might believe they can do it again. Sign Lock, draft a rookie either this year or next. Geno isn't taking this team to the Super Bowl. Again, if the money they save by not signing Geno gets them Hargrave and Payne? If they can get similar production out of Lock, and they might think they can.

The other side to this is, no one knows this situation better than they do. They have seen Geno and Drew all year. They may not be sold on Lock and may not believe that a rookie can come in and do what Russ did. I'm just no longer sold on Geno. Two months ago? Sure. Hell, maybe even a month ago. But he hasn't exactly been playing his best football down the stretch. And while he put up great numbers, as I pointed out earlier, this offense had some major stretches of games where it was pathetic, and not all of those were to finish the season while they went 3 and 6, with their only wins over the Rams and Jets.

[douche]

I'm just no longer sold on Geno. Two months ago? Sure. Hell, maybe even a month ago. But he hasn't exactly been playing his best football down the stretch. And while he put up great numbers, as I pointed out earlier, this offense had some major stretches of games where it was pathetic, and not all of those were to finish the season while they went 3 and 6, with their only wins over the Rams and Jets.

Can't disagree. The other thing that jumped out at me this season was Smith's propensity to fumble the ball late in the game. That said, offense is a coordinated effort.

Hey, at least they didn't lose their last four.

[trharder]

Read that again, and then think if this really is the SAFE play that everyone wants us to believe. Geno had a decent year, but in games we lost, and there were almost as many of those as we won, he was pretty bad in many of them. Especially for stretches. The Consistency that everyone claims we had? Sorry, wasn't there, and Geno was not consistent. Hell, in the first win against the Cards he was 20 of 31 for less than 200 yards and no TDs. He greatly outperformed what I had expected, but I am not so sure he was as great as many say. Add to the above that he was terrible in the second half against Denver, and he had some stretches of bad football where the offense was real bad.

Well, I'm sure as hell not sold on Geno. I wasn't seeing the "it factor". The stats seem to say I'm wrong. It is valid to wonder what
he'd look like with the same tools as Purdy and a much better defense to back him up. I really don't even know if 30 million would
prevent the Sehawks from adding pieces to the puzzle. I'm not even sure I buy the narrative that some team is for sure going
to pay him a big contract. The guy is 32 and the season we just witnessed is the best he's been. It was more likely his ceiling than
his jumping off point. Geno has been tweeting some ambiguous BS that Mike Salk thinks means he heard the first number from the
Seahawks and he's pissed. I feel like the Seahawks would be better off long term if he's gone.

[Gametime]

I'm just no longer sold on Geno. Two months ago? Sure. Hell, maybe even a month ago. But he hasn't exactly been playing his best football down the stretch. And while he put up great numbers, as I pointed out earlier, this offense had some major stretches of games where it was pathetic, and not all of those were to finish the season while they went 3 and 6, with their only wins over the Rams and Jets.

Can't disagree. The other thing that jumped out at me this season was Smith's propensity to fumble the ball late in the game. That said, offense is a coordinated effort.

Hey, at least they didn't lose their last four.

Didn’t the sane thing happen last year when he came in for Russ? Fumble issues.

[Cascade Kid]

I no longer believe Geno will get extended a contract that would allow a cap hit greater than $20M. The Seahawks may seek something closer to $15M plus incentives. There isn't a realistic market for Geno that is going to pay him $30M+ per year

Below is the list of the top paid QBs in 2022 and their cap hits. Now a couple things to note is that all of these QBs have developed a proven track record, and none of them just popped up out of the blue in terms of having 1 solid year to anchor their contracts like in Geno's case. The other thing, most of these players below are on mega deals that are 5+ years which substantially escalates their cap hits further into their contracts (in nearly all cases). Thus, having a lighter cap hit on the front side of the contract.


QB Cap Hit 2022

Player____Cap Hit___% of Total Cap
Cousins___$40.00M____19.21%
Tannehill__$38.60M____18.54%
Mahomes__$35.79M____17.19%
Rogers____$31.62M____15.19%
Goff______$31.15M____14.96%
Wentz____$28.29M____13.59%
Prescott__$19.74M_____9.48%
Carr______$19.38M____9.31%
Ryan _____$18.71M____8.99%
Wilson____$17.00M____8.17%
Allen_____$16.37M_____7.86%
Stafford___$13.50M____6.48%
Murray____$12.67M____6.09%



Bleacher Report published an article 10 years ago discussing quarterback inflation which I found interesting.
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/159 ... alary-cap
Bleacher Report Article
2000 Season
Top Cap Players: Cap Hit % of Cap Space
Drew Bledsoe $8.5M 13.7%
Mark Brunell $7.2M 11.6%
Peyton Manning $6.7M 10.8%
Chris Chandler $6.2M 10%

2006 Season
Top Cap Players: Cap Hit % of Cap Space
Tom Brady $13.8M 13.5%
Mike Vick $13M 12.7%
Carson Palmer $13M 12.7%
Brett Farve $12.6M 12.3%
Peyton Manning $10.5M 10.2%

2013 Season
Top Cap Players: Cap Hit % of Cap Space
Eli Manning $20.8M 16.9%
Matt Stafford $20.8M 16.9%
Peyton Manning $20M 16.2%
Drew Brees $17.4M 14.1%
Philip Rivers $17.1M 13.9%

[D-train]

By Matt Calkins
Seattle Times columnist
A college friend of mine lived in a house in Venice, California, for almost 20 years and generally had at least three roommates. But the tenant turnover rate was high, and to keep his own rent down, he was often tasked with finding new dwellers.

One day when I was visiting, a prospective renter looked at the place and told my buddy that he was in and would have the check for him tomorrow.

“Well, that problem is solved,” I said.

“Nah,” my friend responded. “Until that check is in my hand, none of that meant anything.”

People say a lot of different things for a lot of different reasons. This is true of renters, this is of true high-school athletes giving verbal commitments — and for the sake of this column, this can be true of NFL coaches, general managers and quarterbacks.

The talk is that Geno Smith is going to be the starting signal caller for the Seahawks next year. Ask coach Pete Carroll, GM John Schneider or the QB himself about it, and the answers indicate the Comeback Player of the Year will surely come back to Seattle.

Until that contract is signed, I’d be skeptical. Though Geno has proved himself to be worth good money — he didn’t do enough to earn great money.

ADVERTISING
The Seahawks were one of the more surprising teams in the league last season in that they vastly exceeded the basement-level expectations engendered by the Russell Wilson trade. To go 9-8 and slip into the playoffs with five rookies starting epitomized over achievement.

The primary factor in that unexpected surge was Smith, a seven-year backup who was thrust into the starting role before leading the NFL in completion percentage (69.8) and finishing fifth in passer rating (100.9).

Phenomenal story … for the first half of the season.

Something happened over the final eight games of the schedule when Seattle went from 6-3 to 9-8. There were losses to the Bucs, Panthers and Raiders — none finished with winning records — that nearly cost the Seahawks what once seemed like an assured playoff spot.

Geno wasn’t terrible over this stretch. He produced passer ratings of at least 103 in four of the final eight games he played. But there were seven interceptions over that stint, too — two of which came on the Seahawks’ first offensive play of the game — and a glaring lack of magic that was customary in the Wilson era.

It was as if the screenwriters went on strike before penning the third act of his script, leaving the rest of Smith’s story in the hands of scabs. And you have to wonder if the boon of Geno’s play last season will turn out to be a burden going forward.

If he was forgettable, the Seahawks’ brass would face an easy decision: Beef up this team through the draft and use the salary-cap space to shore up as many weaknesses as possible. There are a lot of them. From the pass rush (or the front seven in general) to the offensive line to the receiving corps — areas for improvement on this team abound.

ADVERTISING
If you look at the four teams still alive in the postseason, three have QBs playing on a rookie deal (49ers, Eagles and Bengals), while the Chiefs have the consensus best quarterback in the league in Patrick Mahomes. This is typically how you win in the NFL. Build around a young signal caller or sign one of the top three in football.

Overpaying for Smith — (sportrac.com has his market value at $39.3 million per year) would hamstring the Seahawks more than it would help.

Smith’s postgame interview after the playoff loss to the Niners was as genuine as it was poignant. Asked about his future with the Seahawks he said, “They embraced me at a time when not many people were. I feel like that means a lot to me. I’ve got a lot of loyalty in me, and I want to repay those guys for doing that.”

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Carroll and Schneider spoke with equal desire about Smith coming back. But let’s be real: What else were they supposed to say?

The reality is that Smith’s pretty good 2022 was by far the best season he’s produced since being drafted in 2013. That isn’t much to go on.

Geno returning would be heartwarming, no doubt. But if he asks for a lot — it might be asking too much.