More Than One Outcome- Trade Up The #5 Pick

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Cascade Kid
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More Than One Outcome- Trade Up The #5 Pick

Post by Cascade Kid » Thu Jan 12, 2023 11:52 pm

Any road taken for the Seahawks will likely be an exorbitant one, so may as well explore any opportunity to trade up the #5. Or move forward with signing a Geno that could eat up most of the 2023 cap space and beyond.

Either the Hawks pay either side of $30M per year x whatever number of years, structured in whichever way it make sense for both parties. Geno's leverage is his Pro Bowl season resume and teams like the Raiders and Jets looking to strongly invest in QB but don't have the means via draft capital. The result of this option will most certainly leave little money leftover to sign a proven FA to fill a critical need and retain any guys the Hawks desire that otherwise would be set for UFA.

Or trade up, as long as you have a willing partner. That partner could be the Chicago Bears who are drafting #1 overall. The draft capital to make this trade happen will likely require the Seahawks' first three picks #5, its other first-round, and #36. Why would the Bears do this? Perhaps they may value having the additional draft capital and still find a guy they need at #5.

This obviously opens all draft opportunities wide open for the Hawks to draft any QB they see fit, and saves them considerable payroll in the procees which could be used to fill critical holes via FA, and the flexibility to resign others that would otherwise had been unsignable due to cap space. And lastly, they draft a long-term QB with the draft capital they received for Russ. But this would be at the expense of three picks that could fill multiple starter holes at a low cost across mulitple year.

This isn't likely a real possibility, but neither is winning the $1.2B Mega Millions. However, I still buy a ticket just to fantasize between now and till the time the numbers are drawn. So I thought I'd share this outside possibility to all you dreamers. :D

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Donn Beach
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Re: More Than One Outcome- Trade Up The #5 Pick

Post by Donn Beach » Fri Jan 13, 2023 1:53 am

I think they are serious about wanting to re-sign Geno. I think they feel they have their QB situation solved if they can manage to do that

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Cascade Kid
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Re: More Than One Outcome- Trade Up The #5 Pick

Post by Cascade Kid » Fri Jan 13, 2023 5:42 am

Perhaps. But maybe there's another outcome. One that doesn't involve patchworking draft picks from the Russell trade around an expensive middle-aged QB that isn't truly the long-term franchise solution. That other outcome could be converting the current draft capital from Denver into the #1 pick and use that pick as intended- to absolutely replace Russell.

In this scenario the Hawks would be trading half of the asset value received in the Russell Wilson trade (pick #5 and #36) plus a later 1st round pick on a potential franchise QB. This would be a fair sacrifice in order to move the team in a sustainable direction.

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Donn Beach
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Re: More Than One Outcome- Trade Up The #5 Pick

Post by Donn Beach » Fri Jan 13, 2023 6:01 am

Can't imagine them investing that much in a single draft pick, but who knows

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Cascade Kid
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Re: More Than One Outcome- Trade Up The #5 Pick

Post by Cascade Kid » Fri Jan 13, 2023 6:19 am

Donn Beach wrote:
Fri Jan 13, 2023 6:01 am
Can't imagine them investing that much in a single draft pick, but who knows
Qualitative vs quantitative, so effectively they would be invested equally. However, in the former you must be 100% right, whereas you need to be at least 33% right in the latter. So it's very important to know what you're targeting in this case.

Pharmabro
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Re: More Than One Outcome- Trade Up The #5 Pick

Post by Pharmabro » Fri Jan 13, 2023 7:14 am

We could negotiate for a favorable deal.
If we don't get him at a decent price we could franchise tag him.
The teams that do value him as a temporary franchise QB will gladly offer up draft capitol.
What would be the offer for a such a deal?

I would imagine multiple picks near the top at least 1st plus others.

Either way a good proble to have on our hands that we did not see coming.

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Cascade Kid
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Re: More Than One Outcome- Trade Up The #5 Pick

Post by Cascade Kid » Fri Jan 13, 2023 7:45 am

Pharmabro wrote:
Fri Jan 13, 2023 7:14 am
We could negotiate for a favorable deal.
If we don't get him at a decent price we could franchise tag him.
The teams that do value him as a temporary franchise QB will gladly offer up draft capitol.
What would be the offer for a such a deal?

I would imagine multiple picks near the top at least 1st plus others.

Either way a good proble to have on our hands that we did not see coming.
But how would this fill the hole at QB?

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Donn Beach
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Re: More Than One Outcome- Trade Up The #5 Pick

Post by Donn Beach » Fri Jan 13, 2023 9:19 am

Cascade Kid wrote:
Fri Jan 13, 2023 6:19 am
Donn Beach wrote:
Fri Jan 13, 2023 6:01 am
Can't imagine them investing that much in a single draft pick, but who knows
Qualitative vs quantitative, so effectively they would be invested equally. However, in the former you must be 100% right, whereas you need to be at least 33% right in the latter. So it's very important to know what you're targeting in this case.
You're trading draft picks in order not to pay Geno, but how about filling the positions the draft picks would have taken care of such as the dline? You going to free agency for that? I'm keeping the QB I've got now if possible and yeah, filling around him, particularly the defense. In fact i think that's going to be the outcome, the dull one. Retaining Geno and Lock and not drafting a QB.

I think what's missing here is the value Pete puts in his system, it's the system that matters. He feels comfortable changing players so long as they are adept at his system. Geno for RW being the case in point. I think he feels comfortable with the outcome. And if they feel Lock is grasping it there is another in the pipeline. I think that's what's important to him as opposed to investing all his draft capital in an Uber talent he would then have to indoctrinate in the system.

Its interesting, PCJS methods would be questioned in terms of not having a QB on the roster being developed. That had been a staple of Ron wolf and the Packers, where he JS came from. But it turns out they in fact were doing it all along. And I'm wondering if they feel they have another along the way.

We shall see, I don't think they feel the need to invest large sums of draft capital in a QB at this point. But that could change of course depending how contract negotiations go.

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D-train
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Re: More Than One Outcome- Trade Up The #5 Pick

Post by D-train » Fri Jan 13, 2023 11:32 am

Cascade Kid wrote:
Fri Jan 13, 2023 5:42 am
Perhaps. But maybe there's another outcome. One that doesn't involve patchworking draft picks from the Russell trade around an expensive middle-aged QB that isn't truly the long-term franchise solution. That other outcome could be converting the current draft capital from Denver into the #1 pick and use that pick as intended- to absolutely replace Russell.

In this scenario the Hawks would be trading half of the asset value received in the Russell Wilson trade (pick #5 and #36) plus a later 1st round pick on a potential franchise QB. This would be a fair sacrifice in order to move the team in a sustainable direction.
If the Chargers hadn't handed the Broncos the game Sunday we wouldn't even need this thread. I hope the Jags kick the shit out of them. btw couldn't believe the Jags have a home game. I didn't even know they were in the playoff hunt.
dt

Michael K.
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Re: More Than One Outcome- Trade Up The #5 Pick

Post by Michael K. » Fri Jan 13, 2023 4:07 pm

I would rather they resign Lock than trade away picks to move up one or two spots for a QB, especially if it's Young. I just don't think he is THAT guy, to weaken this draft. No, I don't think Lock is that guy either, but I would rather use those picks to load up around the QB, or get one later, than burn capital this year. No one has been harder through the years on this organization for bumbling fucking drafts than I have. But, based on what they did last year? I can't name one person in here, including myself, that wasn't very happy with last year. National pundits critiqued the Walker pick, but most of us thought it was stupid to question. Why NOT take the best RB in college football there? Reaching for players just because we liked them and making trade after trade has not every panned out for this team. The best drafts? They have taken players that are valued at the spot in the draft that makes sense and often times at a position of need. I don't see the QB in this draft that makes burning another first round pick just to move up a spot or two worth it.

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