Heisman Odds Favorites

[D-train]

7-1 to win it all feels like a good return.

[Cascade Kid]

We will soon know, 5pm today.

[D-train]

We will soon know, 5pm today.

LOL Very aware..

[D-train]

Not a big Calkins fan but this is the best piece I have ever read of his work.

By Matt Calkins
Seattle Times columnist
When you just watched the most exhilarating game of the year, and a host of Huskies are all chanting “Heis-man!” in unison, it’s probably best to take a breath. No need to make rash decisions based on the magnitude of the moment.

But now that there’s been a night’s sleep, now that there’s been a good 16 hours to process the situation, I feel comfortable saying it: Michael Penix Jr. is getting my Heisman vote.

I say that knowing that readers from many parts of the country just tagged me with a giant “HOMER” label. Understandable. LSU’s Jayden Daniels is an overwhelming Vegas favorite to win the trophy for a reason.

In 12 games, the Tigers QB posted 3,812 passing yards with 40 touchdown throws against four interceptions. He also crossed the goal line on foot 10 times, giving him 50 TDs total.

Penix’s stats, while damn impressive, don’t quite measure up. Yes, he has thrown for a nation-leading 4,218 yards, but the 33 touchdowns against nine interceptions aren’t in Daniels’ sphere. Neither are the three rushing TDs — or the fact that he has minus-18 yards on the ground for the season.

But Daniels never played in the type of high-stakes circumstances that Penix did all year long. And just about every time LSU went up against an elite team, it lost.

How many Heisman moments did Daniels have this season? You might have to rack your brain. But Penix — who just led the Huskies to their 20th straight victory and an all-but-guaranteed berth in the College Football Playoff — has a Rolodex. Nobody was better this season when it mattered most. Not. Even. Close.

Forget, for a moment, about Friday night, when Penix threw for 319 yards in UW’s Pac-12 Championship Game win over Oregon. Let’s go back to the initial meeting with the Dawgs and Ducks this season on Oct. 14.

With his team down four with 1:49 to go, and the ball on Washington’s 47, Penix connected with Ja’Lynn Polk on a 35-yard pass. One play later, he found Rome Odunze for an 18-yard TD that gave the Huskies the win.


After the game, Odunze acknowledged Penix as he was fielding questions on the podium.

“Hey, you’re looking at the Heisman Trophy winner right there.”

One game earlier, Penix threw for 363 yards on 30-of-40 passing in Tucson against Arizona, which didn’t seem like an impressive win at the time. But now that the Wildcats are 9-3 and ranked 15th by the CFP committee, it should be viewed as one of the more notable road performances in college football this year.

By that point, Daniels had already lost two games. The first was a 21-point defeat against Florida State in Week 1, when he was conspicuously outplayed by Seminoles quarterback Jordan Travis. The second was a six-point loss to Ole Miss, where — OK, not really his fault as Jayden threw for 414 yards and four touchdowns. But he did fumble a possession away.

The fact of the matter is Daniels had already lost twice before the end of September. Doesn’t mean the rest of the games didn’t matter, but he never shouldered national-championship expectations. Penix has been doing that for three and a half months.

Remember that first-quarter touchdown pass against USC, when Penix eluded the Trojan pass rush for a good eight seconds before his miracle, 22-yard throw to Devin Culp in the end zone? That’s the type of play that keeps a season alive.

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How about the fourth-and-two against Utah, when the Utes led by one in the third quarter before Penix completed a 10-yard pass to Jack Westover? The Huskies scored the winning TD two plays later.

Penix’s stat-line against Oregon State a week later was middling. But that was mainly because of dropped passes and a rain-soaked field that would sully anybody’s numbers. Didn’t matter on third-and-three with 1:58 left in the game, though. Penix found Odunze for a 19-yard pass that sealed the 22-20 win.

Don’t for a minute think that the pressure didn’t weigh on this man. Penix refusing to watch the game-winning field goal against Washington State two Saturdays ago confirmed as much.

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Yes, he has perhaps the best receiving corps in the nation — particularly with a healthy Jalen McMillan on the field. But no playoff contender has relied on one player as Washington has Penix this year.

Winning matters — and that’s all Penix has done. He’s 4-0 against ranked CFP teams this year. Daniels is 1-3.

It was starting to look bleak Friday for Washington after Oregon scored 21 unanswered points to go up 24-20 late in the third quarter. Then, Penix led back-to-back touchdown drives and engineered consecutive first downs on the Huskies’ final possession to secure the conference title. Why would anybody have expected anything different after everything No. 9 has done? He has been college football’s wire-to-wire clutch king.

This Heisman race feels very much like Wilt Chamberlain vs. Bill Russell to me. One guy has all the numbers, the other guy has all the wins. Give me the latter all day.

If I were a betting man, I’d put my money on Daniels to win the Heisman. But as a voting man, I’m going with Penix. Not a hard decision.

[Cascade Kid]

I think it's hard to ignore the fact that Penix has had a 60.4% completion rate in his last 8 games. All while nearly getting ousted by 3 conference cellar dwellers. But there was enough overall talent on UW to pull out close, primarily low scoring, victories.

Jayden Daniels' only setback, on the other hand, is that his team has 3 losses in the SEC.

[Sibelius Hindemith]

Calkins gets a Heisman vote? I thought he was just the editorial guy like Steve Kelly. Don't they have a beat reporter for Husky athletics?

[D-train]

[D-train]

I think it's hard to ignore the fact that Penix has had a 60.4% completion rate in his last 8 games. All while nearly getting ousted by 3 conference cellar dwellers. But there was enough overall talent on UW to pull out close, primarily low scoring, victories.

Jayden Daniels' only setback, on the other hand, is that his team has 3 losses in the SEC.

ONLY setback is THREE losses.

[Cascade Kid]

I think it's hard to ignore the fact that Penix has had a 60.4% completion rate in his last 8 games. All while nearly getting ousted by 3 conference cellar dwellers. But there was enough overall talent on UW to pull out close, primarily low scoring, victories.

Jayden Daniels' only setback, on the other hand, is that his team has 3 losses in the SEC.

ONLY setback is THREE losses.

... in the SEC. By one team in the CFP, another team snubbed from the CFP when they were at full strength, and by the currently ranked #11 Ole Miss. And it certainly wasn't a lack of offensive production that caused these three defeats.

[D-train]

Fucking Legend