Vorel, being Debbie Downer! LOL...not really, but he highlights my biggest fear

Michael K.
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Vorel, being Debbie Downer! LOL...not really, but he highlights my biggest fear

Post by Michael K. » Mon Oct 17, 2022 5:39 pm

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/uw- ... subscriber

Basically tells us to get ready for these guys to go pro. My fear is that we fix the defense and then I still have to watch Dylon Morris and a shitty offense bring the season down. The fact that Morris' popgun arm is still the backup leaves me no hope at all that Huard is the savior. So, if Penix doesn't stick around, and we don't bring someone like him in, we again have the Dylon Morris show to look forward to, and no matter how much better the defense gets, we won't go bowling.
Appreciate them while you can, Husky fans.

Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and wide receiver Rome Odunze produced a pair of record-setting performances Saturday, lifting the Huskies to a 49-39 homecoming victory over Arizona. Penix — a redshirt junior and Indiana transfer — completed 36 of 44 passes (81.8%) and threw for 516 yards, obliterating Cody Pickett’s single-game record (455 yards in 2001). The 6-foot-3, 213-pounder accounted for five touchdowns, four through the air and one on the ground.

Penix’s 516 passing yards, by the way, are the most in college football against any FBS defense this season.

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When it was over, Odunze said, “I don’t know if I’ve ever seen that in person, seeing someone be so dialed (in). It just goes to show how much of a talent Mike is and how much he puts into the game and prepares for the game. The hard work he puts in is paying off, and I’m sure he’ll continue to do that.”

Odunze, too, made Husky history — becoming the first UW player to produce 100-plus receiving yards in four consecutive games. Mario Bailey didn’t do it. Reggie Williams didn’t do it. Jaydon Mickens, Jermaine Kearse, John Ross and Dante Pettis didn’t do it.

Odunze did it — again. The 6-3, 201-pound sophomore piled up nine catches, 169 receiving yards and two touchdowns (from 45 and 48 yards out). The Las Vegas product has amassed 33 catches, 561 receiving yards, 17 yards per reception and five touchdowns in his past four games.

https://twitter.com/UW_Football/status/ ... 1840177154
Indeed, this was not an outlier against a dreadful Arizona pass defense. Penix currently leads the country in both total passing yards (2,560) and pass yards per game (365.7), while ranking fifth in passing touchdowns (20), fifth in completions of 20 yards or more (35), seventh in pass attempts per game (41.1), 19th in pass efficiency rating (162.17) and 22nd in yards per pass attempt (8.9).

But let’s dive deeper. Assuming he starts 13 games this fall, Penix is on pace to surpass Pickett’s season passing record (4,458 yards in 2002) by more than 300 yards … despite attempting 78 fewer passes. He’s on a second-place pace in completions, touchdown passes and pass efficiency rating as well.

Odunze, too, is trending toward setting a school record for receiving yards per game (his 115.5 would top Reggie Williams’ 111.8 in 2002), while ranking second in catches per game (Williams’ 7.4 in 2003) and receiving yards (Williams’ 1,454 in 2002).

For a program that has not produced a 1,000-yard receiver since John Ross in 2016, both Odunze and Jalen McMillan could accomplish that feat this fall.

The conclusion? UW’s pass game is clicking at a near-unprecedented level.

Now, we need to notice.

Because it would be easy, admittedly, to watch these performances and accept them as the norm — a ho-hum touchdown downpour from the pass-happy Huskies. It would also be easy to expect an indefinite passing parade, considering coach Kalen DeBoer is in his first season at UW and both Penix and Odunze have eligibility beyond this fall.

Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. makes a pass against Arizona during the second half on an NCAA football game, Saturday, Oct. 15, 2022, in Seattle. Washington won 49-39. (John Froschauer / The Associated Press)

Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. makes a pass against Arizona during the second half on an NCAA football game, Saturday, Oct. 15, 2022, in Seattle. Washington won 49-39. (John Froschauer / The Associated Press)
But Penix’s injury history, for one, highlights the precariousness and difficulty of such consistent success. And with success comes individual opportunity. It would not be a surprise to see both Penix and Odunze declare for the NFL draft this winter, and it’s conceivable offensive coordinator and play-caller Ryan Grubb could be coveted as a head coach as well.

“It’s just execution, and coach Grubb,” Penix said, explaining the success Saturday. “Man, I say it all the time: he’s a wonderful OC. Every time I get the ball in my hands, I know I have an opportunity to do something great with it. He makes me feel real comfortable in the pocket and in the game, just based on the preparation leading up to it. He truly gets us ready. He gets the whole offense ready.”

The same cannot be said of UW’s pass defense — which ranks 10th in the Pac-12 in opponent yards per game (258.3) and completion percentage (64.7%), 11th in opponent pass efficiency rating (155.80) and last in passing touchdowns allowed (17) and opponent yards per pass attempt (8.4). UW also ranks 126th nationally in third-down defense (48.96% conversions).

This is a flawed, frustrating team — and the worst Washington defense in more than a decade. It’s a program that has to win in a particular way (by hoping Penix’s arm outlasts the opposing passer). It’s a roster with glaring needs and precious little depth at several spots.

But none of that should diminish what Penix and Odunze are doing.

The Huskies, after all, scored a total of 258 points in 2021.

They’ve scored 295 points in seven games this season.

That’s thanks, in part, to Penix and Odunze — who are producing two of the best offensive seasons in Husky history.

But be warned: their excellence is not indefinite. At some point — whether it’s next month or next year — this pair will stop producing highlight touchdowns. The fun won’t last forever.

That’s all the more reason, then, to savor these Saturdays. Because soon enough, Penix and Odunze will reside in the record books, rather than Husky Stadium. It’ll be on to the NFL.

For now, though, something special is happening in Seattle.

Mike Vorel: mvorel@seattletimes.com; on Twitter: @MikeVorel. Mike Vorel is the UW football beat writer for The Seattle Times.

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Sibelius Hindemith
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Re: Vorel, being Debbie Downer! LOL...not really, but he highlights my biggest fear

Post by Sibelius Hindemith » Mon Oct 17, 2022 6:57 pm

No way DeBoer is dumb enough to hitch his wagon to Dylan Morris next year. Either Huard steps up or it will be another transfer.

Fungo
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Re: Vorel, being Debbie Downer! LOL...not really, but he highlights my biggest fear

Post by Fungo » Mon Oct 17, 2022 7:20 pm

Who knows, Penix may stick around for another year out of loyalty to DeBoer thus forcing Morris or Huard or both to go portal. I'm just wondering what is wrong with Huard? Is he that bad or has he just not been coached up to his talent level yet?

Michael K.
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Re: Vorel, being Debbie Downer! LOL...not really, but he highlights my biggest fear

Post by Michael K. » Tue Oct 18, 2022 6:04 am

Fungo wrote:
Mon Oct 17, 2022 7:20 pm
Who knows, Penix may stick around for another year out of loyalty to DeBoer thus forcing Morris or Huard or both to go portal. I'm just wondering what is wrong with Huard? Is he that bad or has he just not been coached up to his talent level yet?
I firmly believed this staff was going to get ahold of him and he would take off. Maybe not beat out Penix, and that was before I saw Penix tear it up, but at least beat out Morris. I am really worried about the fact that he is still behind Morris. I now it was limited action, but in the game they both played I thought Morris looked like shit and Huard looked pretty good. Morris didn't get as much time either...but then? Every time there have been minutes for the backup? It's been Morris. Crazy. Sorry, he is just bad, not arm, and the problem is? He thinks he does. The only thing worse than a QB with no arm is one with no arm that thinks he can make the throws.

I know I harp on it, but when we watched them warm up before the game I was at live...I was relived that at least he didn't have the worst arm of the four. Then I realized the guy I thought was Morris was the walk on kid from Wenatchee, Sirmon. And they moved him to RB! His arm is just not D 1 caliber.

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D-train
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Re: Vorel, being Debbie Downer! LOL...not really, but he highlights my biggest fear

Post by D-train » Tue Oct 18, 2022 12:07 pm

Fungo wrote:
Mon Oct 17, 2022 7:20 pm
Who knows, Penix may stick around for another year out of loyalty to DeBoer thus forcing Morris or Huard or both to go portal. I'm just wondering what is wrong with Huard? Is he that bad or has he just not been coached up to his talent level yet?
No way a guy is going sacrifice millions and risk that he is injured yet a again after getting advice that he will be picked in the top three rounds for "Loyalty" reasons.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/new ... versation/
dt

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Re: Vorel, being Debbie Downer! LOL...not really, but he highlights my biggest fear

Post by Fungo » Tue Oct 18, 2022 6:45 pm

D-train wrote:
Tue Oct 18, 2022 12:07 pm
Fungo wrote:
Mon Oct 17, 2022 7:20 pm
Who knows, Penix may stick around for another year out of loyalty to DeBoer thus forcing Morris or Huard or both to go portal. I'm just wondering what is wrong with Huard? Is he that bad or has he just not been coached up to his talent level yet?
No way a guy is going sacrifice millions and risk that he is injured yet a again after getting advice that he will be picked in the top three rounds for "Loyalty" reasons.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/new ... versation/
You never know. Penix seems to be of a different character than your average college football player. I'm not predicting he will opt to stay but it is a possibility.

Michael K.
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Re: Vorel, being Debbie Downer! LOL...not really, but he highlights my biggest fear

Post by Michael K. » Tue Oct 18, 2022 9:39 pm

Fungo wrote:
Tue Oct 18, 2022 6:45 pm
D-train wrote:
Tue Oct 18, 2022 12:07 pm
Fungo wrote:
Mon Oct 17, 2022 7:20 pm
Who knows, Penix may stick around for another year out of loyalty to DeBoer thus forcing Morris or Huard or both to go portal. I'm just wondering what is wrong with Huard? Is he that bad or has he just not been coached up to his talent level yet?
No way a guy is going sacrifice millions and risk that he is injured yet a again after getting advice that he will be picked in the top three rounds for "Loyalty" reasons.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/new ... versation/
You never know. Penix seems to be of a different character than your average college football player. I'm not predicting he will opt to stay but it is a possibility.
He wont stay to be loyal. He will stay if someone he trusts tells him he is a third rounder this year, but he could easily be a first rounder the following year. Let's hope that if that is the case, that someone he trusts isn't blowing smoke up his ass.

I remember Locker being a potential high first round draft pick. He came back a year because he thought he could be first overall. He had a shitty year, and the only thing that saved him was a real dumb GM drafted him early. That said, had he come out the year prior he might have had another year of income?

It's easy for us to say they should stay, and that is not me putting words in your mouth Fungo, I know that isn't what you are saying. But damn, for most of these kids, fifth round draft pick salaries is life changing money.

This article is over two years old. https://heavy.com/sports/2020/04/nfl-dr ... -7-rounds/ Odd that I couldn't find anything more recent. I even googled "NFL average salary for a fifth round draft pick" and the first search result was for the #5 overall pick!
The top pick in the fifth round gets a $698,619 salary and a four-year, $3.64 million contract. The fifth-round salaries range from $698,619 to $669,444. Players selected in the sixth round will get a salary ranging from $662,972 to $642,353. The first pick of the sixth round gets a $662,972 salary as part of a four-year, $3.5 million deal.

Finally, seventh-round picks secure a salary ranging from $638,424 to $628,873. The first seventh-round pick is paid a $638,424 salary and a four-year, $3.4 million contract. The final pick of the NFL draft is often referred to as Mr. Irrelevant but the player still receives a $628,873 salary as part of a four-year, $3.37 million contract.
So, on average, a fourth rounder makes 3.5 million over the course of his deal. Two rounds later he is only losing a couple hundred thousand? I understand this isn't guaranteed, and he can be cut, blah blah. But dang, that is pretty good money to play a game. Something that he would have to do for the price of room and board if he comes back. Maybe we will start seeing big deals in NIL locally, but I sure don't hear about it. Not many stepping up in Seattle to make it a place to play. How strange, coffee sipping laid back hippy motherfuckers! :lol: :lol:

Fungo
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Re: Vorel, being Debbie Downer! LOL...not really, but he highlights my biggest fear

Post by Fungo » Wed Oct 19, 2022 1:00 am

Yeah, for sure loyalty alone won’t cut it. My only point was that it is possible. If that were to happen it would be very interesting seeing the collateral damage. I had no idea the salaries were that high through those drafting rounds. Mind boggling.

Michael K.
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Re: Vorel, being Debbie Downer! LOL...not really, but he highlights my biggest fear

Post by Michael K. » Wed Oct 19, 2022 5:10 pm

Fungo wrote:
Wed Oct 19, 2022 1:00 am
I had no idea the salaries were that high through those drafting rounds. Mind boggling.
Me either! That said, the first round is pretty damn lucrative!

The first pick of the first round will make $42 million. Pennix is better than Kenny Pickete, and he will make over $15. The last pick of the first round from last year will make just under $13.

So, again, let's get that kid an NIL deal to make it worth his while to stick around a year, because if he has any shot at the first round?

https://en.as.com/nfl/nfl-draft-2022-ho ... -values-n/

This is from an article in 2020, so not current, but look at it per round!

First round: $18.4 million
Second round: $6.9 million
Third round: $4.4 million
Fourth round: $3.3 million
Fifth round: $2.95 million
Sixth round: $2.8 million
Seventh round: $2.7 million

The problem? I think guys leave early because they look at the difference between Third and Fifth round money and figure who cares? So, again, let's get this Pennix kid some NIL money.

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/30/ ... cale-draft

Fungo
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Re: Vorel, being Debbie Downer! LOL...not really, but he highlights my biggest fear

Post by Fungo » Thu Oct 20, 2022 5:28 am

Michael K. wrote:
Wed Oct 19, 2022 5:10 pm

The problem? I think guys leave early because they look at the difference between Third and Fifth round money and figure who cares? So, again, let's get this Pennix kid some NIL money.

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/30/ ... cale-draft
I agree Michael, I've got $20 to kick in, how bout' you?

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