Who will win the presidential election

[Michael K.]

Whether it's by hook or by crook, if Trump loses it's in large part his own fault. He has a way of turning people off that detracts from the good things he does and that causes the more stupid voters to be ripe for the pickings by the Democrats. Even if he acted like, say, George W. Bush, his personality wouldn't have cost him the votes it has.

Yes, get off twitter and stop talking tough all the time. Last night was stupid. He was saying that voting needs to end after the polls close, which is true...but he made it sound like they needed to stop counting votes and just declare him the winner. That wasn't true...he wasn't ahead by enough to say the race was over in those pivotal states, which is made obvious by the fact that in two of them he now trails.

[DavidGee24]

Whether it's by hook or by crook, if Trump loses it's in large part his own fault. He has a way of turning people off that detracts from the good things he does and that causes the more stupid voters to be ripe for the pickings by the Democrats. Even if he acted like, say, George W. Bush, his personality wouldn't have cost him the votes it has.

Yes, get off twitter and stop talking tough all the time. Last night was stupid. He was saying that voting needs to end after the polls close, which is true...but he made it sound like they needed to stop counting votes and just declare him the winner. That wasn't true...he wasn't ahead by enough to say the race was over in those pivotal states, which is made obvious by the fact that in two of them he now trails.

Last weekend I was in AZ and two of my friends/softball teammates were talking about that very thing, we're all conservatives but looking critically at what Trump does to hurt himself as opposed to "Libtards this, libtards that". If three libs are having that same conversation it's probably 100 percent "Trump supporters this, Trump supporters that". Thankfully, if Biden wins we'll probably have some ultra right-wingers pissing and moaning but we won't have screaming, crying, rioting and looting on the streets of every freaking city in America. One good thing we've learned from all this is that in general, conservatives are a lot more grown-up, intelligent and rational than liberals. I don't think there's any argument against that at this point.

[Michael K.]

Thankfully, if Biden wins we'll probably have some ultra right-wingers pissing and moaning but we won't have screaming, crying, rioting and looting on the streets of every freaking city in America. One good thing we've learned from all this is that in general, conservatives are a lot more grown-up, intelligent and rational than liberals. I don't think there's any argument against that at this point.

Yeah, but what if racism, COVID and rioting don't just go away? You can be guaranteed the blame won't fall on the career politician.

Looking at Wisconsin and Michigan...I wonder what would have happened if these people that vote for the Libertarian, Green, Solidarity or Constitutional party understand why this could effect things? I admit, I wrote in Freed for LT Gov here...but he got a half a million votes!

Trump is losing Michigan by 46,000 or so votes right now. 58,000 voted Libertarian. He is losing Wisconsin by 20,000 or so. Over 38 K voted Libertarian. They certainly don't support Biden, but their votes may very well have gotten him elected!

[Michael K.]

Looks like they called Wisconsin. Michigan hasn't been called yet, but the lead is down to about 38 K. Unless Trump someone comes up with the vote there? This thing is over gents. Funny, last night it appeared Trump was going to win and all I heard was this will take weeks to decide. Not it comes down to a few votes in Michigan...the state that said they may need a week to count...and I bet they call the election for Biden here shortly.

[DavidGee24]

There is still Nevada, funny that a state with just six electoral votes is going to decide it. 36% of the votes still to be counted, and hopefully those are the rural areas and the Vegas folks who want things opened up again. Unfortunately, it's probably the big semi truck full of 100 percent "Biden votes" that they're holding onto just in case.

[HawkBowler 2.0]

Trump can win by taking any of the following: MI, AZ, NV

[Michael K.]

Trump can win by taking any of the following: MI, AZ, NV

Michigan now shows 99% and Biden by over 61,000. Not gonna happen.
AZ now shows 84% and Biden up by 93,000.
Nevada maybe. It is close, but it is only 6 electoral votes.

Biden is 22 Electoral Votes away. Michigan is 16 and AZ is 11.

Edit: They are showing AZ as won...that is part of the total there. So, he needs 22 and only leads in MI and NV. Which is? 22. So, yes, he needs Nevada, or to flip Trump from AK, GA, NC or PA.

Sounds like it will come down to Nevada. Which shows Trump down less than 8 K with 25% left to count.

[IStillLoveTheMs]

Welp... much closer than maybe anticipated. But probably not unrealistic. Polls were clearly wrong in Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida... Michigan and Wisconsin well off error margin, but accurate in the sense that Biden was favored to win - not really a strong victory if you're a pollster. Looking like 20-25K votes in Wisconsin, 55-65k votes in Michigan in favor of Biden. Nate Silver has some explaining to do.

Numbers for those of you/us who live in Oregon and Washington... they went WAY bluer.

Washington: Biden looks like he's going to win by about 22-24 points up from 14 points Clinton won by in 2016. Huge voter turnout in King, Bellingham, Clark county for Biden. Also a large shift in red counties... Biden trailing by only a few thousand votes in multiple counties where Clinton lost by 10's of thousands.

Oregon: Biden won Oregon by about 17 points, Clinton by 11 points in 2016. Seems the boost comes from Multnomah County where Portland is where Biden beat Clinton by 7 points. Biden gained 7 points in Washington County and Lane County... the MASSIVE swing was 17 points in Clakamas County which was close in 2016... these are the big counties in Oregon. Biden also flipped Deschutes county by 11 points... the big city there is Bend, Oregon where a massive influx of people have moved their from neighboring states.

There's also a pretty big swing in some votes:

Colorado, Delaware, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Vermont... also Oregon and Washington (like I said) all had large swings away from Trump and in favor of Biden. Montana, Kansas, Nebraska probably won't matter as much on a presidential level, but could matter in state to local races.

Illinois and maybe New York had large swings away from Biden in favor of Trump. Trump appears to be far, far more competitive thus far in New York compared to his 2016 campaign... about 85% of the vote is in so we'll see if that adjusts when all votes are counted, but it's pretty interesting to look at. These state swings will likely never matter on a presidential level though.

[IStillLoveTheMs]

Rudy Giuliani is a fucking nut bag.

What a party to be proud of...

Imagine making rules where you're not allowed to count ballots until election day and then bitching and moaning when they're counted.

[Michael K.]

For almost two hours now the AZ site has updated, and no change. Is there really 25% of the ballots still out there in the mail and we are waiting on the Post Office?