The POTUS election betting markets

Seattle or Bust
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Re: The POTUS election betting markets

Post by Seattle or Bust » Thu Oct 24, 2024 9:51 pm

Walla Walla Dawg II wrote:
Thu Oct 24, 2024 9:31 pm
I also don't believe that Corporations pay taxes. When taxes are increased on corporations, they just raise their rates...thus passing the cost on to the consumer.

The rich should pay more, only because they can afford more.

But the poor should also have to pay something, so they have some skin in the game.
The poor pay what they can afford to pay. Taxing a paycheck on someone making $7 an hour in a world where you can't even afford to live in on $20 an hour and is growing less affordable is not feasible.

I don't buy the, "don't raise minimum wage or tax corporations because they'll just increase prices."

So if you keep minimum wage at a non-livable wage and decrease corporate taxes... all of a sudden corporations will lower prices dramatically? No effin way man. Corporate goals are all about growth. They look to make the company bigger year-over-year... dropping cost in their minds = less money rolling through the door.

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D-train
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Re: The POTUS election betting markets

Post by D-train » Thu Oct 24, 2024 10:01 pm

Corporations pay a % of their profits so if they raise prices and still sell the same amount (inelastic demand) then they would pay more taxes. If demand is elastic then they would sell less at a higher price so would have no incentive to raise prices.
dt

Seattle or Bust
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Re: The POTUS election betting markets

Post by Seattle or Bust » Thu Oct 24, 2024 10:51 pm

D-train wrote:
Thu Oct 24, 2024 9:50 pm
Nobody knows who will win. It is a coin flip at this point. Very confident people are wrong all the time. Check out this counting your chickens before they hatch vid at Gasworks park election day 2016. :lol:

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-ne ... orks-park/
I think Harris has the edge but by no means am I very confident. I was way more confident in the Biden election, as evident by my posts.

Why I think Harris will win:

1. I think pollsters are dramatically underestimating how the youth and woman turnout will impact the race. The bulk of them are fully against Trump and are more motivated than ever. Women played a large part in the erasure of the "red wave" in 2022 where polls and betting markets were also wrong. Young people love Harris and think she/Walz take them into consideration. There are HUGE marketing campaigns on TikTok from the Harris/Walz ticket and they are quite popular.

2. Trump's base is more or less unchanging... I don't think he's done much to sway new voters towards himself and most reporting is that independent voters have been more likely break toward Harris. The Republican strategy has been to paint the last 4 years as the worst thing that has ever happened to the world... but I do not believe that non-conservatives share that viewpoint in the slightest. Neutral parties also don't really look back at the Trump presidency as any great success that made their lives categorically better... The optics of his Presidency are also marred by the pandemic... unfair or not.

3. Republicans painted Joe Biden as the 100 year old with dementia as their key strategy for winning the race... now Trump is 78 year old who will be 82 when he leaves office... now he's the guy on stage looking old, falling asleep, speaking about Hanibal Lecter and Arnold Palmer's penis, and calling his incoherent rants the "weave." I feel that people are going to be more motivated by a youthful Harris than the old, tired Trump act.

4. Trump and Vance just lack overall favorability... hell, Trump always has. Difference in 2016 was he represented supposed big shakeup in American politics... his star power motivated people who wanted to shake up the status quo and I think he earned a lot of meme votes. There's reporting that even his campaign didn't think they were going to win and were surprised by the result.

5. I do think people are turned off by Trump's lawlessness... despite the Republican effort to discredit the many legal filings against Trump, I think people understand he's not really a stand up person and I don't think that reality manifested much before the 2016 election.

Why I think Trump has a chance:

1. Republicans are great at messaging and not wavering from their message. When Harris or Walz put something out on X or speak publicly, there's 100+ accounts ready to pounce on them and violently discredit the information. Right-wing media is also extremely sensationalist and I think that message resonates. They're not afraid to send "reporters" and show hosts out there to say pretty off-the-cuff shit about Harris or Walz and then drive that messaging into the sun. I think some people can be swayed if they're exposed to specific messaging long enough and I think Republicans realize that.

2. I think Trump and Harris are running campaigns that are measured by different standards. For whatever reason, I do feel Trump gets a pass on the bulk of the shit that comes out of his mouth where Harris does not. You can hate Harris and what liberalism represents... but in no ways is she any less than qualified than Trump to be President. The woman is a lawyer who passed the California Bar, was a Senator, is the current VP... she's not a moron. Yet (and this is why Republicans are so good as messaging), despite all of her qualifications, the narrative that Harris is incompetent has to be answered constantly by liberals despite a total lack of qualifications for Trump to president. I see, feel, and hear that narrative in media spaces every day... and like I said in the point above... it just might work on a lot of people.

3. Part of the meme of Trump still lives on. Like I said... he has his unchanging base and there are people who are motivated by the crazy shit he does and says. They love it. Perhaps that's still the case and the meme vote lives on to stick it to the status quo. I really don't think the average person pays attention enough to give a shit about policy. Sometimes the loudest, in your face message gets out there and that's how Trump won in 2016. That's how the Trump campaign figures on winning... "THEY'RE EATING YOUR DOGS!!!" works because people are dumb and easily swayed by misinformation.

4. Again on the topic of messaging... points about immigration and inflation have legitimacy... and while I don't think they're as significant as the Trump campaign makes them out to be, they've done a great job of taking those narratives, sticking them directly to Harris, and never wavering from criticism surrounding them.

5. Misogyny and racism live. There are people who will not vote for Harris because she is a woman. There are people who will not vote for Harris because she's black/Indian. It's just the reality. Clinton had a lot of short comings... but I think perhaps the biggest reason she lost is because she's female.
Last edited by Seattle or Bust on Thu Oct 24, 2024 10:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Seattle or Bust
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Re: The POTUS election betting markets

Post by Seattle or Bust » Thu Oct 24, 2024 10:55 pm

D-train wrote:
Thu Oct 24, 2024 10:01 pm
Corporations pay a % of their profits so if they raise prices and still sell the same amount (inelastic demand) then they would pay more taxes. If demand is elastic then they would sell less at a higher price so would have no incentive to raise prices.
In a world where you believe corporations aren't greedy... yes, that's how it should go.

From what I gather, the bulk of the Trump tax cuts went towards stock buy backs and did not create the trickle down effect of larger wages and lower prices to consumers.

https://www.cbpp.org/blog/record-stock- ... e-tax-rate

"Rather than use their windfalls from the 2017 tax law’s corporate tax cut to increase wages for rank-and-file workers, corporations have boosted stock buybacks, which will exceed $1 trillion in 2025, according to a recent Goldman Sachs analysis."

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D-train
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Re: The POTUS election betting markets

Post by D-train » Thu Oct 24, 2024 11:00 pm

Seattle or Bust wrote:
Thu Oct 24, 2024 10:51 pm
D-train wrote:
Thu Oct 24, 2024 9:50 pm
Nobody knows who will win. It is a coin flip at this point. Very confident people are wrong all the time. Check out this counting your chickens before they hatch vid at Gasworks park election day 2016. :lol:

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-ne ... orks-park/
I think Harris has the edge but by no means am I very confident. I was way more confident in the Biden election, as evident by my posts.

Why I think Harris will win:

1. I think pollsters are dramatically underestimating how the youth and woman turnout will impact the race. The bulk of them are fully against Trump and are more motivated than ever. Women played a large part in the erasure of the "red wave" in 2022 where polls and betting markets were also wrong. Young people love Harris and think she/Walz take them into consideration. There are HUGE marketing campaigns on TikTok from the Harris/Walz ticket and they are quite popular.

2. Trump's base is more or less unchanging... I don't think he's done much to sway new voters towards himself and most reporting is that independent voters have been more likely break toward Harris. The Republican strategy has been to paint the last 4 years as the worst thing that has ever happened to the world... but I do not believe that non-conservatives share that viewpoint in the slightest. Neutral parties also don't really look back at the Trump presidency as any great success that made their lives categorically better... The optics of his Presidency are also marred by the pandemic... unfair or not.

3. Republicans painted Joe Biden as the 100 year old with dementia as their key strategy for winning the race... now Trump is 78 year old who will be 82 when he leaves office... now he's the guy on stage looking old, falling asleep, speaking about Hanibal Lecter and Arnold Palmer's penis, and calling his incoherent rants the "weave." I feel that people are going to be more motivated by a youthful Harris than the old, tired Trump act.

4. Trump and Vance just lack overall favorability... hell, Trump always has. Difference in 2016 was he represented supposed big shakeup in American politics... his star power motivated people who wanted to shake up the status quo and I think he earned a lot of meme votes. There's reporting that even his campaign didn't think they were going to win and were surprised by the result.

5. I do think people are turned off by Trump's lawlessness... despite the Republican effort to discredit the many legal filings against Trump, I think people understand he's not really a stand up person and I don't think that reality manifested much before the 2016 election.

Why I think Trump has a chance:

1. Republicans are great at messaging and not wavering from their message. When Harris or Walz put something out on X or speak publicly, there's 100+ accounts ready to pounce on them and violently discredit the information. Right-wing media is also extremely sensationalist and I think that message resonates. They're not afraid to send "reporters" and show hosts out there to say pretty off-the-cuff shit about Harris or Walz and then drive that messaging into the sun. I think some people can be swayed if they're exposed to specific messaging long enough and I think Republicans realize that.

2. I think Trump and Harris are running campaigns that are measured by different standards. For whatever reason, I do feel Trump gets a pass on the bulk of the shit that comes out of his mouth where Harris does not. You can hate Harris and what liberalism represents... but in no ways is she any less than qualified than Trump to be President. The woman is a lawyer who passed the California Bar, was a Senator, is the current VP... she's not a moron. Yet (and this is why Republicans are so good as messaging), despite all of her qualifications, the narrative that Harris is incompetent has to be answered constantly by liberals despite a total lack of qualifications for Trump to president. I see, feel, and hear that narrative in media spaces every day... and like I said in the point above... it just might work on a lot of people.

3. Part of the meme of Trump still lives on. Like I said... he has his unchanging base and there are people who are motivated by the crazy shit he does and says. They love it. Perhaps that's still the case and the meme vote lives on to stick it to the status quo. I really don't think the average person pays attention enough to give a shit about policy. Sometimes the loudest, in your face message gets out there and that's how Trump won in 2016. That's how the Trump campaign figures on winning... "THEY'RE EATING YOUR DOGS!!!" works because people are dumb and easily swayed by misinformation.

4. Again on the topic of messaging... points about immigration and inflation have legitimacy... and while I don't think they're as significant as the Trump campaign makes them out to be, they've done a great job of taking those narratives, sticking them directly to Harris, and never wavering from criticism surrounding them.
I can understand why some people hate Trump but I can fathom why a single soul would LOVE Harris.
dt

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Re: The POTUS election betting markets

Post by Seattle or Bust » Thu Oct 24, 2024 11:06 pm

D-train wrote:
Thu Oct 24, 2024 11:00 pm
Seattle or Bust wrote:
Thu Oct 24, 2024 10:51 pm
D-train wrote:
Thu Oct 24, 2024 9:50 pm
Nobody knows who will win. It is a coin flip at this point. Very confident people are wrong all the time. Check out this counting your chickens before they hatch vid at Gasworks park election day 2016. :lol:

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-ne ... orks-park/
I think Harris has the edge but by no means am I very confident. I was way more confident in the Biden election, as evident by my posts.

Why I think Harris will win:

1. I think pollsters are dramatically underestimating how the youth and woman turnout will impact the race. The bulk of them are fully against Trump and are more motivated than ever. Women played a large part in the erasure of the "red wave" in 2022 where polls and betting markets were also wrong. Young people love Harris and think she/Walz take them into consideration. There are HUGE marketing campaigns on TikTok from the Harris/Walz ticket and they are quite popular.

2. Trump's base is more or less unchanging... I don't think he's done much to sway new voters towards himself and most reporting is that independent voters have been more likely break toward Harris. The Republican strategy has been to paint the last 4 years as the worst thing that has ever happened to the world... but I do not believe that non-conservatives share that viewpoint in the slightest. Neutral parties also don't really look back at the Trump presidency as any great success that made their lives categorically better... The optics of his Presidency are also marred by the pandemic... unfair or not.

3. Republicans painted Joe Biden as the 100 year old with dementia as their key strategy for winning the race... now Trump is 78 year old who will be 82 when he leaves office... now he's the guy on stage looking old, falling asleep, speaking about Hanibal Lecter and Arnold Palmer's penis, and calling his incoherent rants the "weave." I feel that people are going to be more motivated by a youthful Harris than the old, tired Trump act.

4. Trump and Vance just lack overall favorability... hell, Trump always has. Difference in 2016 was he represented supposed big shakeup in American politics... his star power motivated people who wanted to shake up the status quo and I think he earned a lot of meme votes. There's reporting that even his campaign didn't think they were going to win and were surprised by the result.

5. I do think people are turned off by Trump's lawlessness... despite the Republican effort to discredit the many legal filings against Trump, I think people understand he's not really a stand up person and I don't think that reality manifested much before the 2016 election.

Why I think Trump has a chance:

1. Republicans are great at messaging and not wavering from their message. When Harris or Walz put something out on X or speak publicly, there's 100+ accounts ready to pounce on them and violently discredit the information. Right-wing media is also extremely sensationalist and I think that message resonates. They're not afraid to send "reporters" and show hosts out there to say pretty off-the-cuff shit about Harris or Walz and then drive that messaging into the sun. I think some people can be swayed if they're exposed to specific messaging long enough and I think Republicans realize that.

2. I think Trump and Harris are running campaigns that are measured by different standards. For whatever reason, I do feel Trump gets a pass on the bulk of the shit that comes out of his mouth where Harris does not. You can hate Harris and what liberalism represents... but in no ways is she any less than qualified than Trump to be President. The woman is a lawyer who passed the California Bar, was a Senator, is the current VP... she's not a moron. Yet (and this is why Republicans are so good as messaging), despite all of her qualifications, the narrative that Harris is incompetent has to be answered constantly by liberals despite a total lack of qualifications for Trump to president. I see, feel, and hear that narrative in media spaces every day... and like I said in the point above... it just might work on a lot of people.

3. Part of the meme of Trump still lives on. Like I said... he has his unchanging base and there are people who are motivated by the crazy shit he does and says. They love it. Perhaps that's still the case and the meme vote lives on to stick it to the status quo. I really don't think the average person pays attention enough to give a shit about policy. Sometimes the loudest, in your face message gets out there and that's how Trump won in 2016. That's how the Trump campaign figures on winning... "THEY'RE EATING YOUR DOGS!!!" works because people are dumb and easily swayed by misinformation.

4. Again on the topic of messaging... points about immigration and inflation have legitimacy... and while I don't think they're as significant as the Trump campaign makes them out to be, they've done a great job of taking those narratives, sticking them directly to Harris, and never wavering from criticism surrounding them.
I can understand why some people hate Trump but I can fathom why a single soul would LOVE Harris.
I don't love Harris. As I've said before, she's not Trump and that's compelling to me and I think the bulk of people who are going to vote for her. I think the same applied to Biden... nobody loved Biden, but they were so tired of Trump.

I'm OK with the status quo for the next 4 years if the alternative is potential chaos. It's my hope that we get some young, sane people running for office who have actual visions for progress in future elections.

I hope the country can finally return to a sense of normalcy with Trump gone.

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Re: The POTUS election betting markets

Post by bpj » Thu Oct 24, 2024 11:21 pm

Walla Walla Dawg II wrote:
Thu Oct 24, 2024 9:28 pm
bpj wrote:
Thu Oct 24, 2024 8:45 pm
Walla Walla Dawg II wrote:
Thu Oct 24, 2024 8:39 pm


I tend to agree 100% with this (what you wrote).

We have to have a federal income tax because as a country we spend way too much. Now, I will also say that taxes are way too high, and that as a country we have A SPENDING PROBLEM, NOT A COLLECTING TAX PROBLEM.
So why not just cut the spending instead of allowing it to perpetuate?
By all means, we should cut the spending...and cut.....and cut.....and cut.

But the federal gov. has taken on so much, tariffs only will not get the job done.
Here's the model-

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D-train
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Re: The POTUS election betting markets

Post by D-train » Thu Oct 24, 2024 11:29 pm

Seattle or Bust wrote:
Thu Oct 24, 2024 11:06 pm
D-train wrote:
Thu Oct 24, 2024 11:00 pm
Seattle or Bust wrote:
Thu Oct 24, 2024 10:51 pm


I think Harris has the edge but by no means am I very confident. I was way more confident in the Biden election, as evident by my posts.

Why I think Harris will win:

1. I think pollsters are dramatically underestimating how the youth and woman turnout will impact the race. The bulk of them are fully against Trump and are more motivated than ever. Women played a large part in the erasure of the "red wave" in 2022 where polls and betting markets were also wrong. Young people love Harris and think she/Walz take them into consideration. There are HUGE marketing campaigns on TikTok from the Harris/Walz ticket and they are quite popular.

2. Trump's base is more or less unchanging... I don't think he's done much to sway new voters towards himself and most reporting is that independent voters have been more likely break toward Harris. The Republican strategy has been to paint the last 4 years as the worst thing that has ever happened to the world... but I do not believe that non-conservatives share that viewpoint in the slightest. Neutral parties also don't really look back at the Trump presidency as any great success that made their lives categorically better... The optics of his Presidency are also marred by the pandemic... unfair or not.

3. Republicans painted Joe Biden as the 100 year old with dementia as their key strategy for winning the race... now Trump is 78 year old who will be 82 when he leaves office... now he's the guy on stage looking old, falling asleep, speaking about Hanibal Lecter and Arnold Palmer's penis, and calling his incoherent rants the "weave." I feel that people are going to be more motivated by a youthful Harris than the old, tired Trump act.

4. Trump and Vance just lack overall favorability... hell, Trump always has. Difference in 2016 was he represented supposed big shakeup in American politics... his star power motivated people who wanted to shake up the status quo and I think he earned a lot of meme votes. There's reporting that even his campaign didn't think they were going to win and were surprised by the result.

5. I do think people are turned off by Trump's lawlessness... despite the Republican effort to discredit the many legal filings against Trump, I think people understand he's not really a stand up person and I don't think that reality manifested much before the 2016 election.

Why I think Trump has a chance:

1. Republicans are great at messaging and not wavering from their message. When Harris or Walz put something out on X or speak publicly, there's 100+ accounts ready to pounce on them and violently discredit the information. Right-wing media is also extremely sensationalist and I think that message resonates. They're not afraid to send "reporters" and show hosts out there to say pretty off-the-cuff shit about Harris or Walz and then drive that messaging into the sun. I think some people can be swayed if they're exposed to specific messaging long enough and I think Republicans realize that.

2. I think Trump and Harris are running campaigns that are measured by different standards. For whatever reason, I do feel Trump gets a pass on the bulk of the shit that comes out of his mouth where Harris does not. You can hate Harris and what liberalism represents... but in no ways is she any less than qualified than Trump to be President. The woman is a lawyer who passed the California Bar, was a Senator, is the current VP... she's not a moron. Yet (and this is why Republicans are so good as messaging), despite all of her qualifications, the narrative that Harris is incompetent has to be answered constantly by liberals despite a total lack of qualifications for Trump to president. I see, feel, and hear that narrative in media spaces every day... and like I said in the point above... it just might work on a lot of people.

3. Part of the meme of Trump still lives on. Like I said... he has his unchanging base and there are people who are motivated by the crazy shit he does and says. They love it. Perhaps that's still the case and the meme vote lives on to stick it to the status quo. I really don't think the average person pays attention enough to give a shit about policy. Sometimes the loudest, in your face message gets out there and that's how Trump won in 2016. That's how the Trump campaign figures on winning... "THEY'RE EATING YOUR DOGS!!!" works because people are dumb and easily swayed by misinformation.

4. Again on the topic of messaging... points about immigration and inflation have legitimacy... and while I don't think they're as significant as the Trump campaign makes them out to be, they've done a great job of taking those narratives, sticking them directly to Harris, and never wavering from criticism surrounding them.
I can understand why some people hate Trump but I can fathom why a single soul would LOVE Harris.
I don't love Harris. As I've said before, she's not Trump and that's compelling to me and I think the bulk of people who are going to vote for her. I think the same applied to Biden... nobody loved Biden, but they were so tired of Trump.

I'm OK with the status quo for the next 4 years if the alternative is potential chaos. It's my hope that we get some young, sane people running for office who have actual visions for progress in future elections.

I hope the country can finally return to a sense of normalcy with Trump gone.
He was gone for four years and there was complete Chaos. He isn't normal but the country will be more normal like it was from 2017-2019.
dt

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Re: The POTUS election betting markets

Post by D-train » Thu Oct 24, 2024 11:30 pm

bpj wrote:
Thu Oct 24, 2024 11:21 pm
Walla Walla Dawg II wrote:
Thu Oct 24, 2024 9:28 pm
bpj wrote:
Thu Oct 24, 2024 8:45 pm


So why not just cut the spending instead of allowing it to perpetuate?
By all means, we should cut the spending...and cut.....and cut.....and cut.

But the federal gov. has taken on so much, tariffs only will not get the job done.
Here's the model-
LOVE it!
dt

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Re: The POTUS election betting markets

Post by D-train » Thu Oct 24, 2024 11:44 pm

Remember when Elon bought twitter and laid off a bunch of people and all the Libs on twitter were wishing each other heartfelt good byes because they thought a website that basically runs itself was going to be destroyed and crash within weeks? Hilarious. lol
dt

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