Who will win the presidential election
Re: Who will win the presidential election
Betting from every single state in the Union picks Trump to win. Oh, except Colorado.
Re: Who will win the presidential election
I was wondering the same thing
I'm not sure how it ends up but I would be surprised if Trump doesn't improve on his 2016 numbers
Re: Who will win the presidential election
Wow, that would be amazing. How did you get to 362? I just turned every state red that I can imagine and only got to 337.Coeurd’Alene J wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:33 amMy final Trump 362
Gain one senate seat
Retake the house
dt
-
HawkBowler 2.0
- Posts: 2286
- Joined: Sat Aug 10, 2019 6:22 pm
Re: Who will win the presidential election
November 3, 2020... otherwise known as E DAY
Not since the Marines stormed the beaches of Normandy has their been a more important day for America to defeat socialists.
Not since the Marines stormed the beaches of Normandy has their been a more important day for America to defeat socialists.
Re: Who will win the presidential election
I'm figuring on a +2 for the Senate and we retain Maine.Coeurd’Alene J wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:33 amMy final Trump 362
Gain one senate seat
Retake the house
-
Coeurd’Alene J
- Posts: 5761
- Joined: Wed May 01, 2019 2:56 am
Re: Who will win the presidential election
I’d be good with that outcomeddraig wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:52 pmI'm figuring on a +2 for the Senate and we retain Maine.Coeurd’Alene J wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:33 amMy final Trump 362
Gain one senate seat
Retake the house
Re: Who will win the presidential election
And Fascists....HawkBowler 2.0 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 4:10 pmNovember 3, 2020... otherwise known as E DAY
Not since the Marines stormed the beaches of Normandy has their been a more important day for America to defeat socialists.
dt
-
IStillLoveTheMs
- Posts: 5244
- Joined: Wed May 01, 2019 11:29 pm
Re: Who will win the presidential election
You guys can mock Nate Silver and polling all you want but...
By election day Hillary Clinton's lead over Trump fell all the way to 3% nationally - largely due to the Comey letter playing so much significance. She won the popular vote by 2.1% which is well within the margins of polling errors (.9% where errors up to 3-4% are generally advertised)... and that's despite being a horrifically unpopular candidate. Silver gave trump a 29% chance to win the election on election day, which, in terms of probability, isn't a small chance whatsoever... and would you look at that, he defied some odds (I'd argue not that hard to overcome) and won the election.
Trump beat his polling averages by 2-3% in swing states, which again, were within the margin of error... he narrowly won the election. Pollsters now say they've adjusted their methods a little bit to account for the Trump voter they say they undervalued in the 2016 election. With those adjustments, Trump is losing Minnesota (-4.3), Wisconsin (-7.4), Michigan (-8.6), Pennsylvania (-5.0) all outside the margin of error of pollsters. If Biden wins those 4 states, and carries all the states Clinton won in 2016, Biden surpasses the 270 threshold. Biden could lose Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, North Carolina, Georgia and still win. My guess is, he could win a couple of these swing states and that's where you're seeing the 290 to 300+ electoral college vote predictions.
The polls would actually have to be astronomically more wrong on average than they were in 2016 for a Trump victory. Which is why Silver is giving Trump an 11% chance at pulling off a victory... which is much, much smaller than the 29% chance he gave him in 2016.
There's a couple factors that differ this time around in my opinion:
1. Trump isn't an enigma anymore... people know who he his, what he represents, and how he's been as president... his supporters love him, old rich white people love him, but I'm not sure he's done himself any favors with the pandemic, race relations, and his general demeanor among voters who were on the fence or just didn't vote in 2016... not to mention Democrats who could possibly change their vote... my guess is there are probably more conservatives who have changed their vote to Biden (the traditional Bush types). I personally don't think the "silent Trump voter" carries as much weight as they might have in 2016.
2. I think Dems got extremely complacent in 2016. After all, Clinton was a horribly unpopular candidate even among Democrat voters when it came to turnout, especially among people of color. Conservatives were invigorated, Liberals were not... as indicated by a 60% overall voter turnout which was wayyy down from previous elections. In elections where there's a large voter turnout, Democrats are almost always favored.
3. The younger generations of voters have come out in droves so far in this election... Gen Z and Millenial voters are smashing their registration and voting percentages compared to 2016... it's similar to the 2008 election where now older Millennials carried Obama to victory. In 2016, Clinton won 55% of the youth vote to 37% for Donald Trump... the numbers are set to look even worse for Trump in this category in 2020 given that 4 years later more older conservatives have passed and huge sections of Gen Z voters are now old enough to vote.
4. While people mention the "silent Trump voter"... I think there's "silent Biden voter(s)" this go around that polls are maybe not accounting for. Trump is polling terribly among suburban women for example... a category that he carried well in 2016... could they be defying their white husbands wishes and voting for Biden? And as I mentioned before, what about Conservatives who frankly found that they just don't like Trump given the last 4 years?
5. Here's one category that I think maybe? favors Trump: we don't know how effective mail-in voting is compared to voting at the polls. Democrats have voted far, far more via mail-in voting than Conservatives. Last I checked it was about a 25 point advantage for Democrats here... some argue that Conservatives will smash Democrat voters today when it comes to voting at the polls (when you account for Covid and Conservatives generally voting more on election day than early voting)... but is it enough to make up for the votes already casted by mail that again, hugely favors Dems? I guess we'll find out.
If Trump wins, I'll tip my cap, get ready for another insane 4 years... and pray for the best. But as it sits, he's seriously favored to lose... much more so than in 2016.
By election day Hillary Clinton's lead over Trump fell all the way to 3% nationally - largely due to the Comey letter playing so much significance. She won the popular vote by 2.1% which is well within the margins of polling errors (.9% where errors up to 3-4% are generally advertised)... and that's despite being a horrifically unpopular candidate. Silver gave trump a 29% chance to win the election on election day, which, in terms of probability, isn't a small chance whatsoever... and would you look at that, he defied some odds (I'd argue not that hard to overcome) and won the election.
Trump beat his polling averages by 2-3% in swing states, which again, were within the margin of error... he narrowly won the election. Pollsters now say they've adjusted their methods a little bit to account for the Trump voter they say they undervalued in the 2016 election. With those adjustments, Trump is losing Minnesota (-4.3), Wisconsin (-7.4), Michigan (-8.6), Pennsylvania (-5.0) all outside the margin of error of pollsters. If Biden wins those 4 states, and carries all the states Clinton won in 2016, Biden surpasses the 270 threshold. Biden could lose Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, North Carolina, Georgia and still win. My guess is, he could win a couple of these swing states and that's where you're seeing the 290 to 300+ electoral college vote predictions.
The polls would actually have to be astronomically more wrong on average than they were in 2016 for a Trump victory. Which is why Silver is giving Trump an 11% chance at pulling off a victory... which is much, much smaller than the 29% chance he gave him in 2016.
There's a couple factors that differ this time around in my opinion:
1. Trump isn't an enigma anymore... people know who he his, what he represents, and how he's been as president... his supporters love him, old rich white people love him, but I'm not sure he's done himself any favors with the pandemic, race relations, and his general demeanor among voters who were on the fence or just didn't vote in 2016... not to mention Democrats who could possibly change their vote... my guess is there are probably more conservatives who have changed their vote to Biden (the traditional Bush types). I personally don't think the "silent Trump voter" carries as much weight as they might have in 2016.
2. I think Dems got extremely complacent in 2016. After all, Clinton was a horribly unpopular candidate even among Democrat voters when it came to turnout, especially among people of color. Conservatives were invigorated, Liberals were not... as indicated by a 60% overall voter turnout which was wayyy down from previous elections. In elections where there's a large voter turnout, Democrats are almost always favored.
3. The younger generations of voters have come out in droves so far in this election... Gen Z and Millenial voters are smashing their registration and voting percentages compared to 2016... it's similar to the 2008 election where now older Millennials carried Obama to victory. In 2016, Clinton won 55% of the youth vote to 37% for Donald Trump... the numbers are set to look even worse for Trump in this category in 2020 given that 4 years later more older conservatives have passed and huge sections of Gen Z voters are now old enough to vote.
4. While people mention the "silent Trump voter"... I think there's "silent Biden voter(s)" this go around that polls are maybe not accounting for. Trump is polling terribly among suburban women for example... a category that he carried well in 2016... could they be defying their white husbands wishes and voting for Biden? And as I mentioned before, what about Conservatives who frankly found that they just don't like Trump given the last 4 years?
5. Here's one category that I think maybe? favors Trump: we don't know how effective mail-in voting is compared to voting at the polls. Democrats have voted far, far more via mail-in voting than Conservatives. Last I checked it was about a 25 point advantage for Democrats here... some argue that Conservatives will smash Democrat voters today when it comes to voting at the polls (when you account for Covid and Conservatives generally voting more on election day than early voting)... but is it enough to make up for the votes already casted by mail that again, hugely favors Dems? I guess we'll find out.
If Trump wins, I'll tip my cap, get ready for another insane 4 years... and pray for the best. But as it sits, he's seriously favored to lose... much more so than in 2016.
Re: Who will win the presidential election
Did you see my PM?IStillLoveTheMs wrote: ↑Tue Nov 03, 2020 5:31 pmYou guys can mock Nate Silver and polling all you want but...
By election day Hillary Clinton's lead over Trump fell all the way to 3% nationally - largely due to the Comey letter playing so much significance. She won the popular vote by 2.1% which is well within the margins of polling errors (.9% where errors up to 3-4% are generally advertised)... and that's despite being a horrifically unpopular candidate. Silver gave trump a 29% chance to win the election on election day, which, in terms of probability, isn't a small chance whatsoever... and would you look at that, he defied some odds (I'd argue not that hard to overcome) and won the election.
Trump beat his polling averages by 2-3% in swing states, which again, were within the margin of error... he narrowly won the election. Pollsters now say they've adjusted their methods a little bit to account for the Trump voter they say they undervalued in the 2016 election. With those adjustments, Trump is losing Minnesota (-4.3), Wisconsin (-7.4), Michigan (-8.6), Pennsylvania (-5.0) all outside the margin of error of pollsters. If Biden wins those 4 states, and carries all the states Clinton won in 2016, Biden surpasses the 270 threshold. Biden could lose Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, North Carolina, Georgia and still win. My guess is, he could win a couple of these swing states and that's where you're seeing the 290 to 300+ electoral college vote predictions.
The polls would actually have to be astronomically more wrong on average than they were in 2016 for a Trump victory. Which is why Silver is giving Trump an 11% chance at pulling off a victory... which is much, much smaller than the 29% chance he gave him in 2016.
There's a couple factors that differ this time around in my opinion:
1. Trump isn't an enigma anymore... people know who he his, what he represents, and how he's been as president... his supporters love him, old rich white people love him, but I'm not sure he's done himself any favors with the pandemic, race relations, and his general demeanor among voters who were on the fence or just didn't vote in 2016... not to mention Democrats who could possibly change their vote... my guess is there are probably more conservatives who have changed their vote to Biden (the traditional Bush types). I personally don't think the "silent Trump voter" carries as much weight as they might have in 2016.
2. I think Dems got extremely complacent in 2016. After all, Clinton was a horribly unpopular candidate even among Democrat voters when it came to turnout, especially among people of color. Conservatives were invigorated, Liberals were not... as indicated by a 60% overall voter turnout which was wayyy down from previous elections. In elections where there's a large voter turnout, Democrats are almost always favored.
3. The younger generations of voters have come out in droves so far in this election... Gen Z and Millenial voters are smashing their registration and voting percentages compared to 2016... it's similar to the 2008 election where now older Millennials carried Obama to victory. In 2016, Clinton won 55% of the youth vote to 37% for Donald Trump... the numbers are set to look even worse for Trump in this category in 2020 given that 4 years later more older conservatives have passed and huge sections of Gen Z voters are now old enough to vote.
4. While people mention the "silent Trump voter"... I think there's "silent Biden voter(s)" this go around that polls are maybe not accounting for. Trump is polling terribly among suburban women for example... a category that he carried well in 2016... could they be defying their white husbands wishes and voting for Biden? And as I mentioned before, what about Conservatives who frankly found that they just don't like Trump given the last 4 years?
5. Here's one category that I think maybe? favors Trump: we don't know how effective mail-in voting is compared to voting at the polls. Democrats have voted far, far more via mail-in voting than Conservatives. Last I checked it was about a 25 point advantage for Democrats here... some argue that Conservatives will smash Democrat voters today when it comes to voting at the polls (when you account for Covid and Conservatives generally voting more on election day than early voting)... but is it enough to make up for the votes already casted by mail that again, hugely favors Dems? I guess we'll find out.
If Trump wins, I'll tip my cap, get ready for another insane 4 years... and pray for the best. But as it sits, he's seriously favored to lose... much more so than in 2016.
dt