Seattle is Lost

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bpj
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Re: Seattle is Lost

Post by bpj » Tue Jul 13, 2021 8:24 pm

Sibelius Hindemith wrote:
Tue Jul 13, 2021 6:00 am
gil wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 1:20 pm
Sibelius Hindemith wrote:
Sun Jul 11, 2021 5:10 pm
The Earth's axis of rotation wobbles.

One wobble involves the axis (relative to space)on a 26,000 year cycle where it moves along an angular radius of 23.4 degrees..
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axial_precession

There are also changes in the location of the axis relative to fixed points on Earth's surface which have periods of one year and 433 days..
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandler_wobble

There are other smaller deviations in the axis described here..
https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/nasa-stud ... ling-earth
Interesting stuff. But does it explain increased temperature on a world-wide scale? Change in the axis of rotation would seem to make some places warmer and others cooler (not an overall increase in temperature).
The tilt and wobble of the axis are two causes of large-scale climate trends such as ice ages, along with orbital variations due to the pull of Jupiter which are on a 96k year cycle.
gil wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 1:20 pm
As to distance from the sun:
At different times of the year, the Earth either moves closer or farther away from the Sun. At perihelion, the Earth’s closest distance to the Sun, the distance between the Sun and the Earth is 91.4 million miles. The Earth is closest to the Sun in early January. At aphelion, when the Earth is furthest to the Sun, the distance between them is about 94.5 million miles. The Earth is furthest from the Sun in early July. https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/how ... e-sun.html
Obviously this would suggest that the average temperature in January is warmer than in July.
That is just the current arrangement. The Earth's orbit varies from near-circular to elliptical over a cycle with a long time span of tens of thousands of years. I'm not sure if the figures you quoted are nearer to the circular extreme or the elliptical extreme of this cycle.
gil wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 1:20 pm
Again, I understand that these phenomena exist and I understand that there is natural variation and things must be looked at over time. One heat wave or one rainy month do not prove anything. But there is pretty strong evidence of increased temperatures, and I don't know of an explanation that is better than increased carbon dioxide concentration.
Yes, there is a correlation between atmospheric CO2 levels and average global temperature but it isn't clear with regard to causality. For instance, when oceans are shallower due to more land ice they lock up more CO2 and when they are deeper due to melting ice they circulate more and release CO2. Also, other gases like methane seem to have a greater impact. I agree though that continuing to pump carbon dioxide into the air at this rate is unwise if not dangerous for the long term, but the only practical alternative to burning fossil fuels currently is nuclear power.
This is what I think explains varying temperatures over a 100 year+, long time span.

Similar to how the moon is closer at times, there are times we're relatively closer to or further from the sun. Maybe in 1900 we were 94.5 million miles away and now we're 94.4 million miles away on the 10,000 year cycle (or whatever it is).

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Sibelius Hindemith
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Re: Seattle is Lost

Post by Sibelius Hindemith » Tue Jul 13, 2021 9:51 pm

Right, and also increased solar activity that ddraig brought up. Those things have been the primary engine of ice age cycles. There were times in the past million years that they have been able to determine that atmospheric CO2 levels were as much as 8 times higher than they are now due to volcanic eruptions and yet this did not prevent subsequent periods of glaciation. That's on a scale of thousands of years though and i'm not sure what the shorter term impact was. The popular theory with climate hand-wringers now seems to be that man-made global warming will stave off the next glacial cycle (ice age?) which wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing would it?

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ddraig
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Re: Seattle is Lost

Post by ddraig » Wed Jul 14, 2021 4:07 am

There have been multiple instances of high CO2 levels and global warming that preceded past Ice Ages. I wish I could locate the chart that shows this, but off hand I can't. I know I have it somewhere in my school lesson plans. The Earth's warmth causes ocean currents to change directions, and the result is an Ice Age. Anthropomorphic weather is only a small fraction of the causes of global warming. The major impetus is from the Sun and Sun Spots. Our production of carbon pollution is a drop in the bucket compared to the output of the Sun.

I am NOT a Global Warming Skeptic. It is happening and has been for the past 20,000 years. I AM skeptical that this warming trend is man made. And there is literally no data that can point to man caused climate change. How can you isolate it from other factors and measure it?

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D-train
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Re: Seattle is Lost

Post by D-train » Wed Jul 14, 2021 11:26 am

ddraig wrote:
Wed Jul 14, 2021 4:07 am
There have been multiple instances of high CO2 levels and global warming that preceded past Ice Ages. I wish I could locate the chart that shows this, but off hand I can't. I know I have it somewhere in my school lesson plans. The Earth's warmth causes ocean currents to change directions, and the result is an Ice Age. Anthropomorphic weather is only a small fraction of the causes of global warming. The major impetus is from the Sun and Sun Spots. Our production of carbon pollution is a drop in the bucket compared to the output of the Sun.

I am NOT a Global Warming Skeptic. It is happening and has been for the past 20,000 years. I AM skeptical that this warming trend is man made. And there is literally no data that can point to man caused climate change. How can you isolate it from other factors and measure it?
And if it is man Made ~70% of those men live in China.....
dt

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ddraig
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Re: Seattle is Lost

Post by ddraig » Wed Jul 14, 2021 4:12 pm

D-train wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 1:38 pm
Love how they scale these graphs to make it look like temps are just SKYROCKETING when it has actually gone up 1 degree Celsius in 40 years.

Here is what the graph looks like with a normal scale. The average temp on earth is 57 degrees or 14 C. Here it is with the scale going from 0-100 Fahrenheit or 38 to -17 Celsius. Not quite as dramatic is it. Now you know how these scientists/propaganda gurus push the narrative by manipulating how they present the data. Of course almost nobody questions it.

temp.JPG
Thank you, Darren. The guy who came up with the "Hockey Stick" graph did the same thing. He cherry picked the past 100 years, leaving off the previous couple of hundred years that actual temps were recorded. When a real scientist called him on his data, the took the scientist to court for defamation. Over the course of the two and a half years of court proceedings, the scientist asked the guy to prove his statements questioning the data was wrong. The judge asked the guy three times to provide his data and he couldn't, so the case was dropped. People still use the "Hockey Stick" graph to "prove" their point. They don't realize that graph has been debunked.

Oh, and one other point. If people like former President Barak Obama actually believed the sea level was rising because of "Global Warming," why did he purchase a beach front home a few years back? It's all bull shit for the peons to absorb. Look at the flucking data, people!

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ddraig
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Re: Seattle is Lost

Post by ddraig » Wed Jul 14, 2021 4:31 pm

One of the things I teach my kids is how to generally calculate the difference between fahrenheit and clesius. Basically fahrenheit is double celsius plus 30. So if I take celsius and double it, then add 30 I come up with an approximate correlation between the two. 14 degrees celsius is approximately 58 degrees fahrenheit. The difference between Darren's 57 degrees and my 58 degrees is less than a half degree celsius. MY GOD! A WHOPPING 1 DEGREE CELSIUS IN 140 YEARS!
MUST BE GLOBAL WARMING! OH, THE HUMANITY!

And no way is Saint Greta of Thunberg a moderate.

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gil
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Re: Seattle is Lost

Post by gil » Wed Jul 14, 2021 5:21 pm

ddraig wrote:
Wed Jul 14, 2021 4:31 pm
One of the things I teach my kids is how to generally calculate the difference between fahrenheit and clesius. Basically fahrenheit is double celsius plus 30. So if I take celsius and double it, then add 30 I come up with an approximate correlation between the two. 14 degrees celsius is approximately 58 degrees fahrenheit. The difference between Darren's 57 degrees and my 58 degrees is less than a half degree celsius. MY GOD! A WHOPPING 1 DEGREE CELSIUS IN 140 YEARS!
MUST BE GLOBAL WARMING! OH, THE HUMANITY!

And no way is Saint Greta of Thunberg a moderate.
I was attempting to be funny. Emphasize attempting. :)

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gil
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Re: Seattle is Lost

Post by gil » Wed Jul 14, 2021 5:27 pm

So in summary ...

Changing global temperatures are caused by a lot of things, and carbon dioxide concentration is not a major cause of increased temperatures.

But if increased carbon dioxide contributes to increased temperatures, human activity didn't do it.

And even if human activity did do it, then it's China's fault.

:?:

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gil
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Re: Seattle is Lost

Post by gil » Wed Jul 14, 2021 5:42 pm

I respect the work of Cliff Mass, who is a professor at UW. He has concluded that the SMALL increase in global temperatures to date is indeed due to increased greenhouse gases, and that temperatures will SLOWLY be increasing further over at least the next century (due to the increase levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere). But he strongly criticizes he media and some scientists for being alarmist and attributing extreme weather events to this temperature rise. This is a nice piece criticizing a recent highly publicized study about the heat wave. https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/07/ ... false.html I'd say that Prof. Mass argues we should be worried about "global warming" over the long term, but the tendency to blame every heat wave on it is #1 bad science and #2 bad in the sense that it makes people skeptical about what he sees as a true long term problem for society.

By the way, here is the 800,000 year estimates of carbon dioxide concentration. You can see the decreasing CO2 during the period (100,000 years ago to 10,000 years ago) when there were Ice Ages. And of course, we are now at higher CO2 levels than any time in 800,000 years.
Attachments
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auroraave
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Re: Seattle is Lost

Post by auroraave » Wed Jul 14, 2021 5:49 pm

ddraig wrote:
Wed Jul 14, 2021 4:12 pm
D-train wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 1:38 pm
Love how they scale these graphs to make it look like temps are just SKYROCKETING when it has actually gone up 1 degree Celsius in 40 years.

Here is what the graph looks like with a normal scale. The average temp on earth is 57 degrees or 14 C. Here it is with the scale going from 0-100 Fahrenheit or 38 to -17 Celsius. Not quite as dramatic is it. Now you know how these scientists/propaganda gurus push the narrative by manipulating how they present the data. Of course almost nobody questions it.

temp.JPG
Thank you, Darren. The guy who came up with the "Hockey Stick" graph did the same thing. He cherry picked the past 100 years, leaving off the previous couple of hundred years that actual temps were recorded. When a real scientist called him on his data, the took the scientist to court for defamation. Over the course of the two and a half years of court proceedings, the scientist asked the guy to prove his statements questioning the data was wrong. The judge asked the guy three times to provide his data and he couldn't, so the case was dropped. People still use the "Hockey Stick" graph to "prove" their point. They don't realize that graph has been debunked.

Oh, and one other point. If people like former President Barak Obama actually believed the sea level was rising because of "Global Warming," why did he purchase a beach front home a few years back? It's all bull shit for the peons to absorb. Look at the flucking data, people!
For those of you who are Neil deGrasse Tyson fans - he absolutely debunks the 'global warming' nonsense by following the money. he says if global warming was true, and the seas were rising, like the 'narrative' tells us, why would they be giving loans out to developers building beach front condos all across the coastal states? They would know that they would never get their loans back because the properties would be underwater - a very high risk - and they don't give out massively risky loans. It's nonsense. It was the best push back I've ever heard. Banks ain't gonna loan money for beach front condo's if their data tells them that property will be under water in 20-30-40 years. Not gonna happen. Guess what? Beach front condos are going up all over the coastal areas.

But I'm sure clowns like AOC are much smarter than an actual astro-physicist - and money-hungry banks who hire real MBA's to crunch REAL data because they literally have to put their money where their mouth is.

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