Official Mid Terms thread

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D-train
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Re: Official Mid Terms thread

Post by D-train » Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:28 pm

The electoral college is based on population so that wouldn't help if was applied to State races.
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Michael K.
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Re: Official Mid Terms thread

Post by Michael K. » Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:36 pm

gil wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:08 pm

If I understand what you are saying, winning any county would give you a certain number of "electoral votes", just like in the US as a whlle, and each county would have a number of electoral votes proportionate to its population. Then you total the electoral votes to see who won. Is that it?

I guess I have to disagree. Counties don't hate people. People hate people. Counties aren't happy. People are happy.

I think there are 18 of 39 counties that each have a population less than 50,000 - i.e, each of these 18 counties has fewer people than Bothell. No candidate has to win Bothell. No candidate has to win Capitol Hill or any other neighborhood in Seattle. It's "one man one vote" (so to speak).
Bothell has nothing to do with it, but in this State, the Eastern part is about as different to the Western part as Texas is to California. Yet, imagine if Texas didn't matter in the presidential election? Again, the canidate simply has to win King County and in years past this has put them half way there. Come visit Wenatchee, the biggest city in Chelan County, and tell me it reminds you of talking to people in Seattle. It doesn't. I don't think most States are this diverse, but even if they were, the electoral college was designed to accomplish just that...to ensure that while being assigned a larger percentage of the points needed, they couldn't skew the entire election.

7% of the Counties make up 49% of the vote. To me? As diverse as this State is? That is wrong. Again, Murray got 49% of the votes she needed from one single County. If there was an electoral college to the State, I promise you King wouldn't get 25 out of 100. But that is what she got. Half way to the number needed just by pandering to one County, or, better yet, for running as Democrat in a State that has King Fucking County. Seattle has a Mayor, but the way this State is set up, they have everything else too! The Governor wins by winning Seattle....every elected official that has a voting territory including King County wins based on that County.

Don't believe me? Well over half of Kim Schrier's votes came from King County. She won by 5% of the vote total, but won King County 65,889 to 40,070. Won King County by 25% of the vote. 66,000 of her 113,500 votes came from King County. Take just the other four Counties and Schrier loses by 43.4 to 56.6! So, lost by 13% in all but one County, and still wins Comfortably!?
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D-train
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Re: Official Mid Terms thread

Post by D-train » Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:40 pm

I hate to hell that the big Puget Sound counties are so liberal but you can't give a person's vote in Grant county more significance that one in King county.
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Michael K.
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Re: Official Mid Terms thread

Post by Michael K. » Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:45 pm

D-train wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:28 pm
The electoral college is based on population so that wouldn't help if was applied to State races.
I don't it would be slanted that much. King County goes blue at a clip of about 75%. I doubt they would own that much of the electoral number. Again, look at how many votes are needed outside of King for anyone else to win. If they assign a point scale, there is no way one County is going to influence the election as much as the total number of votes out or King County effects the popular vote.

Seriously, half of the needed votes for Murray came from King County. I don't believe half of the electoral points would be assigned to King. At least then it wouldn't be as slanted. Win Seattle, win the election.

Trust me, I think the voter turn out on the East Side is kind of shitty, but I also don't know that I blame them anymore. Now? The only real reason for people over here to vote is for the local stuff like School Levies. There just aren't enough votes outside of the big three for a Republican to win...IMO, assigning points per County might change that. If it works for the Nation, why not here? Seriously, the West Side is as much like the East Side as Texas is to California. So, knowing that this side can never impact an election certainly turns a lot of people off.

Michael K.
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Re: Official Mid Terms thread

Post by Michael K. » Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:47 pm

D-train wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:40 pm
I hate to hell that the big Puget Sound counties are so liberal but you can't give a person's vote in Grant county more significance that one in King county.
Not one vote, but how is it any different than saying winning the State of Washington is worth less than winning the State of California in a Presidential election? Break up 50 points by population, what ever, something has to give. But in any State election, the game is over once King County votes. I realize it has always been that way, and isn't going to change, but it's fucked up.

I was in downtown Seattle not that long ago, downtown Spokane last weekend. Crime and homelessness is a big time issue. Yet, let's continue to vote for the people that got us here? Insanity, but I realize that is all that King County and Seattle knows. So, I guess I am grasping at straws for a way to balance the scales a bit.

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Re: Official Mid Terms thread

Post by gil » Thu Nov 10, 2022 11:02 pm

Michael K. wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:45 pm
D-train wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:28 pm
The electoral college is based on population so that wouldn't help if was applied to State races.
I don't it would be slanted that much. King County goes blue at a clip of about 75%. I doubt they would own that much of the electoral number. Again, look at how many votes are needed outside of King for anyone else to win. If they assign a point scale, there is no way one County is going to influence the election as much as the total number of votes out or King County effects the popular vote.

Seriously, half of the needed votes for Murray came from King County. I don't believe half of the electoral points would be assigned to King. At least then it wouldn't be as slanted. Win Seattle, win the election.

Trust me, I think the voter turn out on the East Side is kind of shitty, but I also don't know that I blame them anymore. Now? The only real reason for people over here to vote is for the local stuff like School Levies. There just aren't enough votes outside of the big three for a Republican to win...IMO, assigning points per County might change that. If it works for the Nation, why not here? Seriously, the West Side is as much like the East Side as Texas is to California. So, knowing that this side can never impact an election certainly turns a lot of people off.
So I suppose what you are describing is how people in Austin feel about Texas, or how people in Jackson feel about Mississippi.

I feel the weakness of the electoral college system is that it is winner take all: winning a given state by 10 votes gives you the same number of electoral votes as winning the same state by a million. That isn't democratic.

Smiley just needed more votes, period. What county gave her the most votes? Pierce, followed closely by King. (Final total might change.)

What county gave Matt Larkin the most votes? King.

I know lots of people who would have considered a "moderate" Republican in the last election. I have friends whose kid is in the high school where there was a murder yesterday. Do you think they are happy about crime? Policing? Homelessness? Hell fucking no. But I doubt they would every vote for someone who would not say that Biden was legitimacy elected, or was wishy washy about supporting abortion rights.

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Re: Official Mid Terms thread

Post by D-train » Thu Nov 10, 2022 11:14 pm

Wishy washy about supporting about sucking a fetus out a womb when there are countless birth control options which are easily accessible. If my grand mother had chose abortion over orphanage me, my mother, my brother and all of his children would not exist.
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Re: Official Mid Terms thread

Post by GL_Storm » Fri Nov 11, 2022 12:59 am

I think the 8th Congressional District can go either way. Right now, people are voting Democrat over there, but that used to be Dave Reichert's seat and he held it pretty comfortably. Most likely, it's going Dem these days because there are more younger people with high salaries working for tech companies and there's more density in downtown Bellevue with all the high rises that have gone up. There's also probably been some flight from Seattle due to crime, homelessness and shitty local government. Most of those people would be moderate Dems, but still Dems and party affiliation is pretty difficult to break. Kim Schrier is actually pretty good fit for those people and as long as she sticks to more moderate positions, she'll probably keep winning elections. I don't live in that district but I imagine I would vote for her. I like that she has a background in medicine and understands the healthcare system.

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gil
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Re: Official Mid Terms thread

Post by gil » Fri Nov 11, 2022 6:13 pm

D-train wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 11:14 pm
Wishy washy about supporting about sucking a fetus out a womb when there are countless birth control options which are easily accessible. If my grand mother had chose abortion over orphanage me, my mother, my brother and all of his children would not exist.
Wishy washy about whether congress should approve a nation-wide ban on abortion. She "pivoted" toward a more moderate position for the general election - i.e., control of your womb should not be a federal matter. It should be between you, your doctor, and *local* government officials. It's kind of the Dr. Oz position that (I think) sunk him in PA.

Lots of people see this as much more nuanced than you do.

Michael K.
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Re: Official Mid Terms thread

Post by Michael K. » Fri Nov 11, 2022 7:24 pm

gil wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 11:02 pm

Smiley just needed more votes, period. What county gave her the most votes? Pierce, followed closely by King. (Final total might change.)

What county gave Matt Larkin the most votes? King.

I know lots of people who would have considered a "moderate" Republican in the last election. I have friends whose kid is in the high school where there was a murder yesterday. Do you think they are happy about crime? Policing? Homelessness? Hell fucking no. But I doubt they would every vote for someone who would not say that Biden was legitimacy elected, or was wishy washy about supporting abortion rights.
Again, find the last time a Republican had a chance in an election that included King County? You will have to look back some ways. Yes, Smiley needed more votes. Aint happening in this State where half the total votes come from Seattle, a place where 75% of the votes are Blue, regardless of the canidate.

And no, I don't think the majority over there care about crime. That is why they continue to vote for the people that refuse to punish it.

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