When will the election be decided

[D-train]

Looking at the Battle Ground polls every State is insanely close.

[trharder]

How is it even possible that counting is getting harder?

[D-train]

How is it even possible that counting is getting harder?

Elon is launching and catching rocket ships and old ladies with letter openers are manually counting ballots. And some people want more government...

[Walla Walla Dawg II]

I said "a few weeks later", but in reality it all depends on how close the election is in all these states.

The reality of the situation is that the historic view of the polls always has Republicans as 5-6 point underdogs. If this holds, I see Trump winning in just about all the close races....but we'll see.

Historically speaking, the Republicans are also more likely to go to the polling places, so any counted early returns hardly count for "whoever is going to win".

[douche]

This is incredibly interesting. From the article...

'If there’s a prototypical Kamala Harris voter it might seem to be Charles Johnson, a 23-year-old Black college student.

Johnson is informed and politically engaged; he went to hear former President Barack Obama speak Friday at a Democratic campaign rally on the University of Arizona campus.

Yet he isn’t all that impressed with Obama, the nation’s first Black president, nor Harris, who would be the second. He says he’s leaning toward voting for Donald Trump.'

“The media says he [Trump] is horrible and he’s racist and he’s going to bring us back, but he’s only gaining support with Black voters,” Johnson said in an interview. “He’s only gaining support with Black men.”

https://www.yahoo.com/news/obama-campai ... 00195.html

[Captain 97]

I said "a few weeks later", but in reality it all depends on how close the election is in all these states.

The reality of the situation is that the historic view of the polls always has Republicans as 5-6 point underdogs. If this holds, I see Trump winning in just about all the close races....but we'll see.

Historically speaking, the Republicans are also more likely to go to the polling places, so any counted early returns hardly count for "whoever is going to win".

[Captain 97]

I said "a few weeks later", but in reality it all depends on how close the election is in all these states.

The reality of the situation is that the historic view of the polls always has Republicans as 5-6 point underdogs. If this holds, I see Trump winning in just about all the close races....but we'll see.

Historically speaking, the Republicans are also more likely to go to the polling places, so any counted early returns hardly count for "whoever is going to win".

I like to look at real clear politics because they compile all of the polls and it gives a more comprehensive picture. They have trump ahead in all of the battleground states.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/electi ... und-states

To your point above, Trump outperformed the polls almost accross the board in these battleground states both 2016 and 2020.

Here is what trump did in the actual results compared to the final polls in 2016 and 2020
Arizona 2016 -.5, 2020 +.6
Georgia 2016 +.3, 2020 -.7
Michigan 2016 +3.7, 2020 +2.4
Nevada 2016 -3.2, 2020 +0
North Carolina 2016 +2.7, 2020 +1.1
Pennsylvania 2016 +2.8, 2020 +0
Wisconsin 2016 +7.2, +6

Obviously this is a different election and a different opponent but the trends make it seem Like Trump should have a pretty good hold on most of these states. Particularly Michigan and Wisconsin where he has performed way ahead of the polls in both elections.

[Captain 97]

I feel that there will be a couple of close states that might be worthy of a recount but I actually think the electoral vote wont be close enough for that to matter and that Harris will concede on election night. There are generally considered to be 7 battleground states. I think Georgia is in the bag. If that's the case than Trump would be up 9 electoral points with 6 battleground states remaining. Trump has a significantly easier path to victory than Harris. With 2 possible outcomes for each state that means there are 64 possible combinations of results. 36 of those combinations favor Trump.

Any of the following combinations would get Trump to 270.

Pennsylvania and North Carolina
Any three battleground states not including Nevada
Nevada, Pennsylvania and any other battle ground state
Nevada, North Carolina and Michigan.

Harris would need one of the following to win
Pennsylvania, North Carolina and any other state not including Nevada
Pennsylvania, Michigan and any other state not including Nevada
Pennsylvania and three other states
North Carolina and three other states Not including Nevada
North Carolina, Nevada, Michigan and either Arizona or Wisconsin

[bpj]

Do you guys think it's going to happen peacefully?

[bpj]

Personally I think things are going to get pretty messy over the next few months.