Hey stretch, did the air get too thin of oxygen up there where you're at to keep your game thread in mind?
How do you think the M's will spend money?
-
Coeurd’Alene J
- Posts: 5649
- Joined: Wed May 01, 2019 2:56 am
Re: How do you think the M's will spend money?
Stretch is a horse race gambler. He took a look at the horses and decided to return to the stable
Re: How do you think the M's will spend money?
Coeurd’Alene J wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 5:15 pmStretch is a horse race gambler. He took a look at the horses and decided to return to the stable
dt
-
Coeurd’Alene J
- Posts: 5649
- Joined: Wed May 01, 2019 2:56 am
Re: How do you think the M's will spend money?
Nottingham just got dfa’d
We hardly knew ye........
We hardly knew ye........
Re: How do you think the M's will spend money?
May be the plan, try and sneak him through waivers to add a free catcher to the organizationCoeurd’Alene J wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 10:08 pmNottingham just got dfa’d
We hardly knew ye........
Re: How do you think the M's will spend money?
Yeah, guessing it is now unlikely he gets his number retired as a Mariner. lolCoeurd’Alene J wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 10:08 pmNottingham just got dfa’d
We hardly knew ye........
dt
Re: How do you think the M's will spend money?
The Brewers who just waived him lost two catchers this week so they may be inclined to reclaim.bpj wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 10:12 pmMay be the plan, try and sneak him through waivers to add a free catcher to the organizationCoeurd’Alene J wrote: ↑Sat May 01, 2021 10:08 pmNottingham just got dfa’d
We hardly knew ye........
Re: How do you think the M's will spend money?
I usually don’t answer prognostication questions, as I tend to spend too much time on them, and invariably lose interest. But I felt compelled to take a stab at this one, especially since I had a hellacious jolt of coffee this morning:
Question 1: Will they ever? If not, why not?
I think (or desperately hope) they will, but it's going to depend very much on their revenue vs operational cost margin this year. And although I have high hopes that they will delve into the FA market this coming off season, I'm preparing to be disappointed.
Question 2: If they will, how will they spend it? On what?
What I'm hoping they do:
a) Pick up Kyle Seager's option and use that as a chip to attract Corey. Let's say $33M for Corey, and the $15M for Kyle. (I don't know if one more year of Kyle here makes enough sense for Corey to come here, or for us to take that risk on an extension, but let's say Corey and a one year option pick up of Kyle is enough). That takes care of SS for 2022+, and opens up other options (see f, below).
b) If they pick up Corey, a TOR is out (unless its a Paxton-like risk/reward balanced chance on a reclamation project). I’d like a MOR on a 1 year deal for <$10M is possible; a Robbie Ray type. That would conclude work on the infield up SS and rotation.
c) If Corey isn't signed, I would want a TOR. Rodriguez (Boston) looks like he's going to have a year, so I think Boston will try to lock him up. He’s a lefty, but with Pax gone, we’re back to three lefties in the rotation if YK is re-upped, but I’m not going to count that because I don’t want it to happen. I don't think Bauer will opt out unless there's crazy money out there, which makes me think he's either back to Los Angeles or NY. If Syndergaard shows he's healthy this year, and the Mets hedge on him, I could see him as an alternate TOR target. Money vested in a FA TOR would make any more changes subject to trade, and not part of this post.
d) YK’s 3-year deal concludes at the end of this season, and being a Boras client, I’d want his contract gone if he has a fair-middling year this year, especially to make room for a more reliable pitcher (TOR or MOR), and for the money to be well-spent somewhere else on someone else. Perhaps he goes in a trade at deadline time this year, or he goes FA. Either way, his option is declined. (I don’t see him having such a dominant, turnaround type of year that makes the Ms falling over themselves to regard him as a MOR, much less TOR target.)
e) If Graveman continues to show solid results, I would hope for a $5M yearly deal on a 2-year with him. Couple that with the amount committed to Giles, and I could see the BP being set, apart from a reclamation or Spring invite spare part or two that DiPoto always seems to be tinkering with.
f) I see France alternating with White at DH/1B, so no movement at that position. If Corey is signed, then perhaps Crawford gets packaged with a pitcher for additional help at another position, but not 1B. Going for 1B would make White baggage (unless he gets relegated to bench strength) and trading both Gold Gloves in one or separate deals doesn’t seem like something DiPoto/Servais would do.
g) A 2-year deal for Dunn at $2.5M pending performance this year.
Question 3: Where do you anticipate the M's payroll will be in 2022 ?
In total, what I prognosticate above is a maximum increase of about $65Min 2022. We’re at $80M this year per Spotrac, so an increase of about 80% to $145M. The team at that point is still about $50M below the tax threshold. However, those of us who’ve had to submit or approve budgets before would probably know that an increase of 80% is a horse pill to swallow for approval, no matter *how* well the company did. Any request for that much stands a real likelihood of being cut. So, again, exec approval is going to be based on a willingness to pay up or shut up, or it’s going to be a fraction of that, which means more incremental moves. If Mariners marketing and finance detects fan sentiments shifting because of ‘playoff drought fatigue’ or something similar, it could nudge the approval in the right direction. (So could a billboard within full sight of the main T-Mo entrance excoriating the Ms front office.)
Question 4: If they don't spend money, will you continue to put up with the losing?
Probably not. I’m getting a little too old to be continually disappointed. My constant and unswerving love of this sport deserves better care and feeding at this stage in my life.
Question 1: Will they ever? If not, why not?
I think (or desperately hope) they will, but it's going to depend very much on their revenue vs operational cost margin this year. And although I have high hopes that they will delve into the FA market this coming off season, I'm preparing to be disappointed.
Question 2: If they will, how will they spend it? On what?
What I'm hoping they do:
a) Pick up Kyle Seager's option and use that as a chip to attract Corey. Let's say $33M for Corey, and the $15M for Kyle. (I don't know if one more year of Kyle here makes enough sense for Corey to come here, or for us to take that risk on an extension, but let's say Corey and a one year option pick up of Kyle is enough). That takes care of SS for 2022+, and opens up other options (see f, below).
b) If they pick up Corey, a TOR is out (unless its a Paxton-like risk/reward balanced chance on a reclamation project). I’d like a MOR on a 1 year deal for <$10M is possible; a Robbie Ray type. That would conclude work on the infield up SS and rotation.
c) If Corey isn't signed, I would want a TOR. Rodriguez (Boston) looks like he's going to have a year, so I think Boston will try to lock him up. He’s a lefty, but with Pax gone, we’re back to three lefties in the rotation if YK is re-upped, but I’m not going to count that because I don’t want it to happen. I don't think Bauer will opt out unless there's crazy money out there, which makes me think he's either back to Los Angeles or NY. If Syndergaard shows he's healthy this year, and the Mets hedge on him, I could see him as an alternate TOR target. Money vested in a FA TOR would make any more changes subject to trade, and not part of this post.
d) YK’s 3-year deal concludes at the end of this season, and being a Boras client, I’d want his contract gone if he has a fair-middling year this year, especially to make room for a more reliable pitcher (TOR or MOR), and for the money to be well-spent somewhere else on someone else. Perhaps he goes in a trade at deadline time this year, or he goes FA. Either way, his option is declined. (I don’t see him having such a dominant, turnaround type of year that makes the Ms falling over themselves to regard him as a MOR, much less TOR target.)
e) If Graveman continues to show solid results, I would hope for a $5M yearly deal on a 2-year with him. Couple that with the amount committed to Giles, and I could see the BP being set, apart from a reclamation or Spring invite spare part or two that DiPoto always seems to be tinkering with.
f) I see France alternating with White at DH/1B, so no movement at that position. If Corey is signed, then perhaps Crawford gets packaged with a pitcher for additional help at another position, but not 1B. Going for 1B would make White baggage (unless he gets relegated to bench strength) and trading both Gold Gloves in one or separate deals doesn’t seem like something DiPoto/Servais would do.
g) A 2-year deal for Dunn at $2.5M pending performance this year.
Question 3: Where do you anticipate the M's payroll will be in 2022 ?
In total, what I prognosticate above is a maximum increase of about $65Min 2022. We’re at $80M this year per Spotrac, so an increase of about 80% to $145M. The team at that point is still about $50M below the tax threshold. However, those of us who’ve had to submit or approve budgets before would probably know that an increase of 80% is a horse pill to swallow for approval, no matter *how* well the company did. Any request for that much stands a real likelihood of being cut. So, again, exec approval is going to be based on a willingness to pay up or shut up, or it’s going to be a fraction of that, which means more incremental moves. If Mariners marketing and finance detects fan sentiments shifting because of ‘playoff drought fatigue’ or something similar, it could nudge the approval in the right direction. (So could a billboard within full sight of the main T-Mo entrance excoriating the Ms front office.)
Question 4: If they don't spend money, will you continue to put up with the losing?
Probably not. I’m getting a little too old to be continually disappointed. My constant and unswerving love of this sport deserves better care and feeding at this stage in my life.