Offseason Plans

[D-train]

They aren't trading JRod and I would be shocked if they traded JK and KLew is close to worthless until he can prove he is healthy so I don't see it.

[SeattleSportsRUs]

They aren't trading JRod and I would be shocked if they traded JK and KLew is close to worthless until he can prove he is healthy so I don't see it.

I don't think KLew is close to worthless. Injuries happen, someone will take a flyer on the former ROY.

[ice99]

Given the positional versatility our players have, I wouldn't worry about what position the players we get play. They need to add the best bats, not worry about whether they're a 2B or a DH.

Let Toro, Torrens, France battle it out with whoever they pick up for the positions. Toro/Moore/Fraley as the utility players is perfectly fine with me. I expect to see Evan White in at least a Jake Bauers role.

Best bats of the year that may be available according to wRC+:

Bryce Harper 169
Juan Soto 164
Matt Olson 147
Kyle Schwarber FA 145
Bryan Reynolds 142
Jose Ramirez 138
Freddie Freeman FA 135
Carlos Correa FA 134
Starling Marte FA 133
Ty France, for reference, 131
Marcus Semien FA 130
JD Martinez FA if opts out of contract 128
CJ Cron FA 126
Josh Donaldson 125
Nelson Cruz FA 124
Mitch Haniger, for reference, 122
Kris Bryant FA 122
Jorge Polanco 122
Jeimer Candelario (seems like an under the radar player Dipoto could target) 119
Josh Bell 116
Javier Baez 116
Mark Canha FA 115
Chris Taylor FA 112
Trey Mancini 104
Kyle Seager 100


Below that you start getting into the below average bats.

Adding pitchers.
Max Scherzer, 5.4
Carlos Rodón, 4.9
Kevin Gausman, 4.8
Robbie Ray, 3.9
Eduardo Rodriguez, 3.8
Clayton Kershaw, 3.4
Marcus Stroman, 3.4
Anthony DeSclafani, 3.0
Steven Matz, 2.8
Alex Wood, 2.5
Alex Cobb, 2.5
Jon Gray, 2.3
Tyler Anderson, 2.1
Matt Harvey, 1.9
Collin McHugh, 1.8
Rich Hill, 1.7
Danny Duffy, 1.6
Corey Kluber, 1.5

Injured:
James Paxton
Noah Syndergaard

Trade targets:
Luis Castillo, 3.7
German Marquez, 3.4
John Means, 2.5

[D-train]

They aren't trading JRod and I would be shocked if they traded JK and KLew is close to worthless until he can prove he is healthy so I don't see it.

I don't think KLew is close to worthless. Injuries happen, someone will take a flyer on the former ROY.

He has had no less than four major knee injuries and multiple setbacks and they are questioning whether he will ready for ST in 4 months. Nobody is trading for that risk.

[ice99]

Let me preface this by saying to take these WAR estimates with a grain of salt.

As a baseline with no moves (other than Seager buyout), the lineup looks something like:

JP, SS, 3.0 WAR
France, 1B, 3.5
Haniger, RF, 3.0
Toro, 2B, 2.0
Kelenic, CF, 2.0
Murphy, C, 1.5
Fraley, LF, 1.5
Torrens, DH, 1.0
Moore, 3B, 0

Current lineup, 17.5 WAR.

If they sign Gausman and trade for someone like Luis Castillo or German Marquez, then

Gausman, 4.0
Marco, 3.0
Flexen, 3.0
Gilbert, 3.0
Dunn/Sheffield/Brash/Kikuchi, 1.0

Rotation 14 WAR

According to Fangraphs top bullpen in terms of WAR was the Rays at 7.9 WAR. The M's came in at 7.0 WAR. I'm predicting some gain at 7.5 WAR.

A zero WAR team is supposed to be good for 47.7 wins. Give the bench 0.3 WAR.

This gives a baseline with Gausman is 87 wins.

Adding Semien (est. 4 WAR) allows Toro to move off 2B to 3B, displacing Moore. This brings it up to 91 wins.

[D-train]

Arb projections

[ice99]

Jon Gray is one of the FAs that could be a good buy, or good-bye, lol. If he just pitches more innings due to being away from Coors, he could provide 3 WAR.

[D-train]

Let me preface this by saying to take these WAR estimates with a grain of salt.

As a baseline with no moves (other than Seager buyout), the lineup looks something like:

JP, SS, 3.0 WAR
France, 1B, 3.5
Haniger, RF, 3.0
Toro, 2B, 2.0
Kelenic, CF, 2.0
Murphy, C, 1.5
Fraley, LF, 1.5
Torrens, DH, 1.0
Moore, 3B, 0

Current lineup, 17.5 WAR.

If they sign Gausman and trade for someone like Luis Castillo or German Marquez, then

Gausman, 4.0
Marco, 3.0
Flexen, 3.0
Gilbert, 3.0
Dunn/Sheffield/Brash/Kikuchi, 1.0

Rotation 14 WAR

According to Fangraphs top bullpen in terms of WAR was the Rays at 7.9 WAR. The M's came in at 7.0 WAR. I'm predicting some gain at 7.5 WAR.

A zero WAR team is supposed to be good for 47.7 wins. Give the bench 0.3 WAR.

This gives a baseline with Gausman is 87 wins.

Adding Semien (est. 4 WAR) allows Toro to move off 2B to 3B, displacing Moore. This brings it up to 91 wins.

Looks like a pretty good fairly conservative assessment. Are you assuming Lewis isn't healthy or is traded?

[ice99]

Let me preface this by saying to take these WAR estimates with a grain of salt.

As a baseline with no moves (other than Seager buyout), the lineup looks something like:

JP, SS, 3.0 WAR
France, 1B, 3.5
Haniger, RF, 3.0
Toro, 2B, 2.0
Kelenic, CF, 2.0
Murphy, C, 1.5
Fraley, LF, 1.5
Torrens, DH, 1.0
Moore, 3B, 0

Current lineup, 17.5 WAR.

If they sign Gausman and trade for someone like Luis Castillo or German Marquez, then

Gausman, 4.0
Marco, 3.0
Flexen, 3.0
Gilbert, 3.0
Dunn/Sheffield/Brash/Kikuchi, 1.0

Rotation 14 WAR

According to Fangraphs top bullpen in terms of WAR was the Rays at 7.9 WAR. The M's came in at 7.0 WAR. I'm predicting some gain at 7.5 WAR.

A zero WAR team is supposed to be good for 47.7 wins. Give the bench 0.3 WAR.

This gives a baseline with Gausman is 87 wins.

Adding Semien (est. 4 WAR) allows Toro to move off 2B to 3B, displacing Moore. This brings it up to 91 wins.

Looks like a pretty good fairly conservative assessment. Are you assuming Lewis isn't healthy or is traded?

Not healthy, perhaps traded. He was a first round pick, although we have a few of those in Trammel, Sheffield, and Dunn.

A trade for Castillo or Marquez isn't included in the rotation total.

[SeattleSportsRUs]

You guys know Robbie Ray has the best K/9 in Major League history for his career? That's wild.

Gausman really fumbled down the stretch... believe he had an ERA above 4.20 in the 2nd half.

I liked Rodon but he's got an injury that saw his velo dip to 89 MPH before they shut him down.

I don't see Scherzer coming here.

Maybe Ray is our best bet. His walk rate dipped from like 18% to 7% this year.