Official Hot Stove League Thread

[Donn Beach]

okay, but there is a reason teams give those contracts. For Correa to earn $300 mil over the next ten years, you would need probably something like 35 more WAR out of him. He put up 7.3 WAR at age 27, a few more seasons like that and he reaches 35 WAR before the contract runs out. And there is value in just having the production locked up, you are not having to go into the market each season looking to buy 4-5 WAR. If you can just write it into the season each year, that has value. That is what he would be selling, season after season consistency

[GL_Storm]

I think Houston prefers that Correa sign somewhere else. The offer they're making to him now is just to save face with their fanbase. But this is a pretty smart baseball organization and they know that a 10-year deal could cripple them for years.

[Donn Beach]

sure, or on the other hand, lead them to more championships...looking back on Arod's $252 mil contract in 2000, he was 25 and had put up over 40 WAR.


Arod's contract delivered a 33% surplus

• 10-year contracts vs. value
  Player Age Years Contract In Progress? Contract Paid Value ($/fWAR) Surplus
  Giancarlo Stanton 25 13 $325,000,000 Yes $55,000,000 $137,600,000 $82,600,000
  Alex Rodriguez 32 10 $275,000,000 No $275,000,000 $148,500,000 -$126,500,000
  Alex Rodriguez* 25 10 $252,000,000 No $252,000,000 $335,400,000 $83,400,000
  Albert Pujols 32 10 $240,000,000 Yes $153,000,000 $48,100,000 -$104,900,000
  Robinson Cano 31 10 $240,000,000 Yes $120,000,000 $163,700,000 $43,700,000
  Joey Votto 30 10 $225,000,000 Yes $100,000,000 $186,300,000 $86,300,000
  Derek Jeter* 27 10 $189,000,000 No $189,000,000 $220,600,000 $31,600,000
  Troy Tulowitzki 26 10 $157,750,000 Yes $119,750,000 $169,000,000 $49,250,000
  AVERAGE 29 10.38 $237,968,750 -- $157,968,750 $176,150,000 $18,181,250

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2019/ ... acts-value

[bpj]

Great news about JD Martinez not opting out with the Red Sox. I was concerned he would opt out and the Red Sox would pounce on Schwarber for DH.

[D-train]

Interesting exchange here:

[bpj]

I guess we'll find out if they've been saving all those unspent payroll dollars in a sock the last couple years so they can spend it now that the team's ready like many had hoped they would

[GL_Storm]

sure, or on the other hand, lead them to more championships...looking back on Arod's $252 mil contract in 2000, he was 25 and had put up over 40 WAR.


Arod's contract delivered a 33% surplus

• 10-year contracts vs. value
  Player Age Years Contract In Progress? Contract Paid Value ($/fWAR) Surplus
  Giancarlo Stanton 25 13 $325,000,000 Yes $55,000,000 $137,600,000 $82,600,000
  Alex Rodriguez 32 10 $275,000,000 No $275,000,000 $148,500,000 -$126,500,000
  Alex Rodriguez* 25 10 $252,000,000 No $252,000,000 $335,400,000 $83,400,000
  Albert Pujols 32 10 $240,000,000 Yes $153,000,000 $48,100,000 -$104,900,000
  Robinson Cano 31 10 $240,000,000 Yes $120,000,000 $163,700,000 $43,700,000
  Joey Votto 30 10 $225,000,000 Yes $100,000,000 $186,300,000 $86,300,000
  Derek Jeter* 27 10 $189,000,000 No $189,000,000 $220,600,000 $31,600,000
  Troy Tulowitzki 26 10 $157,750,000 Yes $119,750,000 $169,000,000 $49,250,000
  AVERAGE 29 10.38 $237,968,750 -- $157,968,750 $176,150,000 $18,181,250

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2019/ ... acts-value

Correa's good, but he's not AROD good, and he's much more fragile. But if he stays healthy, his next three years should be his best.

[D-train]

Great news about JD Martinez not opting out with the Red Sox. I was concerned he would opt out and the Red Sox would pounce on Schwarber for DH.

Good call:

[D-train]

Prediction time. I like ours. In line with my contest pick. Ben, check out #12.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-prediction ... on-2021-22

[Sexymarinersfan]

Prediction time. I like ours. In line with my contest pick. Ben, check out #12.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-prediction ... on-2021-22

Haha! I mean that's his perspective. I can definitely see the allure to accepting the offer to help rebuild some value. Its not out of the realm of possibilities.