Pick'em league

Michael K.
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Re: Pick'em league

Post by Michael K. » Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:41 am

D-train wrote:
Thu Jan 27, 2022 2:08 am
Michael K. wrote:
Thu Jan 27, 2022 1:52 am
Niners 19 to 17
Chiefs 36 to 23

Though that Bengals score might be a bit low.
Chiefs win in overtime after losing the coin flip! :)
What a week that would lead up to! Or, imagine if they LOST in OT after losing the coinflip. Be interesting to see if any opinions changed.

Donn Beach
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Re: Pick'em league

Post by Donn Beach » Thu Jan 27, 2022 6:16 am

Under the current overtime rules the win-loss record for teams that win the coin toss is 86-67-10, per NFL Research. There is an advantage to winning the coin toss, but just at 52.8%. But, and this is an interesting but, if you just look at playoff games, the team that wins the coin flip has won 10 out of 11 games. Seven of those wins came on the first drive and didn’t give the other team a chance. So that’s the number we probably want to focus on.

It’s a small sample size, but seven out of the 11 playoff games that went into overtime (under the current rules) didn’t give the loser of the coin toss a chance to touch the ball. There are valid arguments for and against changing the overtime rules again, especially for the playoffs

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Sibelius Hindemith
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Re: Pick'em league

Post by Sibelius Hindemith » Thu Jan 27, 2022 12:01 pm

How about they settle it this way.

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D-train
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Re: Pick'em league

Post by D-train » Thu Jan 27, 2022 12:38 pm

Donn Beach wrote:
Thu Jan 27, 2022 6:16 am
Under the current overtime rules the win-loss record for teams that win the coin toss is 86-67-10, per NFL Research. There is an advantage to winning the coin toss, but just at 52.8%. But, and this is an interesting but, if you just look at playoff games, the team that wins the coin flip has won 10 out of 11 games. Seven of those wins came on the first drive and didn’t give the other team a chance. So that’s the number we probably want to focus on.

It’s a small sample size, but seven out of the 11 playoff games that went into overtime (under the current rules) didn’t give the loser of the coin toss a chance to touch the ball. There are valid arguments for and against changing the overtime rules again, especially for the playoffs
Not a big deal but I don't like the math on that. I think the ties should be excluded which makes it 56.2%.
dt

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Sibelius Hindemith
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Re: Pick'em league

Post by Sibelius Hindemith » Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:36 pm

I've been thinking about this and i think the fairest way would be the following:

Flip a coin and the winner gets the ball at midfield. They get to run one play. Then the other team gets the ball back and gets to run two plays. Then the first team takes over possession and runs three plays and so on until one of the teams is able to get it into the endzone.

Now tell me what's wrong with that.

Michael K.
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Re: Pick'em league

Post by Michael K. » Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:46 pm

D-train wrote:
Thu Jan 27, 2022 12:38 pm
Donn Beach wrote:
Thu Jan 27, 2022 6:16 am
Under the current overtime rules the win-loss record for teams that win the coin toss is 86-67-10, per NFL Research. There is an advantage to winning the coin toss, but just at 52.8%. But, and this is an interesting but, if you just look at playoff games, the team that wins the coin flip has won 10 out of 11 games. Seven of those wins came on the first drive and didn’t give the other team a chance. So that’s the number we probably want to focus on.

It’s a small sample size, but seven out of the 11 playoff games that went into overtime (under the current rules) didn’t give the loser of the coin toss a chance to touch the ball. There are valid arguments for and against changing the overtime rules again, especially for the playoffs
Not a big deal but I don't like the math on that. I think the ties should be excluded which makes it 56.2%.
Why would you exclude a tie? It is a time that the poor unfortunates that lost the flip and were doomed, touched the ball. Had a chance to win! That is what this is all about right, the fact that the team that losses the flip doesn't get the ball because they couldn't stop the other team?

I would throw out every time the team that lost the flip didn't get to touch it. Jesus, if the next three playoff teams that lose the flip get the ball, we are now at 7 out of 14 playoff teams that lost the flip touched the ball and had a chance. So, yes, small sample size if the next THREE change it that drastically.

52.8 is the amount of times that team won the game, so...it is much smaller the amount of times the team that lost the flip in this completely unfair system and didn't get a chance. They had a chance, they just got kicked in the teeth the very first time the other team touched the ball!

Michael K.
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Re: Pick'em league

Post by Michael K. » Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:48 pm

And again, maybe we should look at the 11 OT playoff games. My guess is they may not be as drastic as allowing a game tying FG in 13 seconds, but I would venture to guess that poor unfortunate coin flip loser had chances. Dee Ford being off sides comes to mind!

SeattleAddict
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Re: Pick'em league

Post by SeattleAddict » Thu Jan 27, 2022 6:06 pm

here is a breakdown of the 11 playoff OT games;

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/nf ... ar-AAT5Uxs

Note that every one of the games would have ended with the same result with the OLD rules, too. If you allowed the other team a chance after a TD, they could score a TD and go for 2, winning the game without the other team getting a chance to reply. That would give the advantage to the LOSER of the coin toss, as they would know what needed to be done. It would effectively give them an extra down, as they would obviously go for any 4th down.

There is literally no option that would satisfy everybody every time. I'd guess that playoffs have had a slightly stronger (though statistically insignificant) amount of first-possession wins because of superstar QBs and other NFL rules that grossly favor the offense.

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D-train
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Re: Pick'em league

Post by D-train » Thu Jan 27, 2022 6:45 pm

Michael K. wrote:
Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:46 pm
D-train wrote:
Thu Jan 27, 2022 12:38 pm
Donn Beach wrote:
Thu Jan 27, 2022 6:16 am
Not a big deal but I don't like the math on that. I think the ties should be excluded which makes it 56.2%.
Why would you exclude a tie? It is a time that the poor unfortunates that lost the flip and were doomed, touched the ball. Had a chance to win! That is what this is all about right, the fact that the team that losses the flip doesn't get the ball because they couldn't stop the other team?

I would throw out every time the team that lost the flip didn't get to touch it. Jesus, if the next three playoff teams that lose the flip get the ball, we are now at 7 out of 14 playoff teams that lost the flip touched the ball and had a chance. So, yes, small sample size if the next THREE change it that drastically.

52.8 is the amount of times that team won the game, so...it is much smaller the amount of times the team that lost the flip in this completely unfair system and didn't get a chance. They had a chance, they just got kicked in the teeth the very first time the other team touched the ball!
Yeah perhaps the perception of unfairness was unique to that insane Mahomes/Allen Matchup and the two gassed Swiss cheese defenses.

How hilarious would it be if the next playoff OT is between two defensive minded teams and the team that wins the toss defers. lol
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Sibelius Hindemith
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Re: Pick'em league

Post by Sibelius Hindemith » Thu Jan 27, 2022 8:55 pm

I take it you guys didn't like the slap fight idea. :? Each team could carry one Russian or Bulgarian slap-fighter on their roster as a back-up O lineman or whatever so they could use them in the event of a tie game. This might be a way for the NFL to market its product in eastern Europe. :idea:

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