SafeCo splits home/away from 2000-2021: A Story of Road Woes?

User avatar
D-train
Posts: 79553
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:33 am
Location: Quincy, MA

Re: SafeCo splits home/away from 2000-2021: A Story of Road Woes?

Post by D-train » Tue Nov 09, 2021 10:43 pm

bpj wrote:
Tue Nov 09, 2021 10:33 pm
D-train wrote:
Tue Nov 09, 2021 10:30 pm
bpj wrote:
Tue Nov 09, 2021 10:28 pm
I don't think they will ever have a home field advantage.

But having their OPS be equal when at Home like 2013-2017 wouldn't be too much to ask.

T-Mobile clearly affects the home and away team significantly. And it's not just a lack of homeruns.

It's a lack of singles and doubles. Something is causing it.

Hard to say it's the air when it's not homeruns that are lagging at home.
Sorry I haven't read every post. Do our opponents have the same issues at T Mobile?
.777 OPS against our pitching in Away games
.684 OPS against our pitching in Home games

Mariners pitching gave up 99 HR in Home games and 98 HR in Away games, so, again, it's not homeruns that are making up the difference, it's fewer singles and doubles in T-Mobile.

Mariners batters were:

.710 OPS in Away games
.663 OPS at Home.
So we have a HFA. We are 93% of our road OPS at home and our opponents are only 88% at T Mobile.
dt

User avatar
bpj
Posts: 15275
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 12:55 am

Re: SafeCo splits home/away from 2000-2021: A Story of Road Woes?

Post by bpj » Tue Nov 09, 2021 10:50 pm

D-train wrote:
Tue Nov 09, 2021 10:43 pm
bpj wrote:
Tue Nov 09, 2021 10:33 pm
D-train wrote:
Tue Nov 09, 2021 10:30 pm


Sorry I haven't read every post. Do our opponents have the same issues at T Mobile?
.777 OPS against our pitching in Away games
.684 OPS against our pitching in Home games

Mariners pitching gave up 99 HR in Home games and 98 HR in Away games, so, again, it's not homeruns that are making up the difference, it's fewer singles and doubles in T-Mobile.

Mariners batters were:

.710 OPS in Away games
.663 OPS at Home.
So we have a HFA. We are 93% of our road OPS at home and our opponents are only 88% at T Mobile.
I'm guessing we have the only home field advantage where our OPS is still lower than the opponents in that case!

User avatar
D-train
Posts: 79553
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:33 am
Location: Quincy, MA

Re: SafeCo splits home/away from 2000-2021: A Story of Road Woes?

Post by D-train » Tue Nov 09, 2021 10:55 pm

Think about it this way, if we trade and sign bats to get us up to a .777 OPS on the road then our expected home OPS would be .93 x .777 = .726 at T Mobile. FAR Better than our opponents.
dt

SeattleSportsRUs
Posts: 646
Joined: Sat Sep 04, 2021 2:06 am

Re: SafeCo splits home/away from 2000-2021: A Story of Road Woes?

Post by SeattleSportsRUs » Tue Nov 09, 2021 11:44 pm

D-train wrote:
Tue Nov 09, 2021 10:55 pm
Think about it this way, if we trade and sign bats to get us up to a .777 OPS on the road then our expected home OPS would be .93 x .777 = .726 at T Mobile. FAR Better than our opponents.

The problem is, good luck convincing potential free agents to come here when it's almost inevitable that their numbers will drop, "but hey, you'll still have better numbers than your opponents!"

Wish we could reincarnate Edgar in his prime:

Image

Or maybe we can trade everything we have for Mike Trout:

Image

Two people who absolutely LOVE SafeCo.

User avatar
bpj
Posts: 15275
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 12:55 am

Re: SafeCo splits home/away from 2000-2021: A Story of Road Woes?

Post by bpj » Thu Jun 09, 2022 6:46 am

bpj wrote:
Tue Nov 09, 2021 6:00 pm
Home:
HR: 94
1B: 351
2B: 100
3B: 7

Away:
HR: 105
1B: 415
2B: 133
3B: 4

Difference ((Away-Home)/Home)
HR: -11.7%
1B: -18.2%
2B: -33%
3B: +47%

Triples are higher at home. The lack of data seems pretty situational, but does not back my theory on the surface in 2021.

However,
18% fewer singles at home.
33% fewer doubles at home.

Compared to 11% fewer homeruns at home. Seems to be kind of a big deal.
2022 Overall:
HR: 60 (13th in MLB)
1B: 296 (10th)
2B: 82 (25th)
3B: 8 (13th)

2022 Home:
HR: 26 (19th)
1B: 124 (26th)
2B: 33 (26th)
3B: 4 (13th)

2022 Away:
HR: 34 (7th)
1B: 172 (6th)
2B: 49 (13th)
3B: 4 (12th)

Difference ((Away-Home)/Home)
HR: -31%
1B: -39%
2B: -48%
3B: 0%

Don't forget bpj told you that it was the grass first.

Power (homeruns) obviously takes a beating in Seattle- this year more than most even- but nothing like the singles and doubles disappear.

User avatar
D-train
Posts: 79553
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:33 am
Location: Quincy, MA

Re: SafeCo splits home/away from 2000-2021: A Story of Road Woes?

Post by D-train » Thu Jun 09, 2022 10:42 am

Adam Frazier defying all laws of the universe but only 21 games so far......
af.JPG
af.JPG (32.96 KiB) Viewed 565 times
How does he suck so bad on the road???? Last season he had a .741 OPS on the road.
dt

User avatar
Sibelius Hindemith
Posts: 15510
Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 3:09 am
Location: Seattle

Re: SafeCo splits home/away from 2000-2021: A Story of Road Woes?

Post by Sibelius Hindemith » Thu Jun 09, 2022 2:07 pm

Doesn't 35 road games vs 22 home games mean they are actually getting extra-base hits at a higher rate at home?

User avatar
D-train
Posts: 79553
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:33 am
Location: Quincy, MA

Re: SafeCo splits home/away from 2000-2021: A Story of Road Woes?

Post by D-train » Thu Jun 09, 2022 2:54 pm

Sibelius Hindemith wrote:
Thu Jun 09, 2022 2:07 pm
Doesn't 35 road games vs 22 home games mean they are actually getting extra-base hits at a higher rate at home?
:idea:
dt

Donn Beach
Posts: 19275
Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 1:06 am

Re: SafeCo splits home/away from 2000-2021: A Story of Road Woes?

Post by Donn Beach » Thu Jun 09, 2022 3:10 pm

Honestly, this is the only spot on the internet I have found this preoccupation with home and away splits. I have looked and can't find anywhere that tries to analyze them like here. It certainly is a unique little feature of this place

User avatar
D-train
Posts: 79553
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:33 am
Location: Quincy, MA

Re: SafeCo splits home/away from 2000-2021: A Story of Road Woes?

Post by D-train » Thu Jun 09, 2022 3:10 pm

Sibelius Hindemith wrote:
Thu Jun 09, 2022 2:07 pm
Doesn't 35 road games vs 22 home games mean they are actually getting extra-base hits at a higher rate at home?
Adjusting home stats to 35 games

HR 43
1B 207
2B 55
3B 7

2022 Away:
HR: 34 (7th)
1B: 172 (6th)
2B: 49 (13th)
3B: 4 (12th)
dt

Post Reply