Winker good as gone?

[bpj]

Yeah agree and that's why I don't think you can say they can just trade Winker, Marco and Flexen to pay for Judge or someone else who will get a 5-8 year deal. Works for year 1 and then it falls apart. I hate they think like that but its their loot.

To me it is nearly that simple because it's basically just eating up the salary that drops off of the payroll when those guys leave.

It's more just an example of how the same dollars could be better spent in the time they are here than blindly acting like there are no further encumbrances going forward.

The end result is that instead of those guys leaving and the payroll dropping, the payroll doesn't drop the following year, but you already have Aaron Judge on your team, and he was nearly free for the first year because we shed the payroll of guys we didn't really need (Winker/Marco/Flexen) to help pay for it.

If they traded Winker/Flexen/Marco for salary relief and then pay Judge $37.5M, he'd be a payroll hit of $15M the first season.

Marco also gets paid $12M in 2024, so Judges net for 2024 is $25.5M.

Makes sense to me We don't need Winker, Marco or Flexen anyways, especially with Judge here.

Right, but what I was saying is that the Mariners concern wouldn't be so much for that first year as all the other years and the increasing risk as the player ages and declines, but is still taking up 38 mil per year on the payroll.

Yeah, their main priority would certainly be whether they think he is going to bring value back for the dollars they commit going forward.

Sending those 3 guys packing just helps them pay for it without a significant bump in the payroll for 2023, and some of 2024.

My point being that it wouldn't be a large boost in payroll going forward. The Mariners committed payrolls go from the high $60M's in 2023/2024 down to $39M by 2025/2026, so signing him still represents a somewhat steady payroll the next 6-8 years. They would definitely need to go up from the $100M current to $150M to continue adding around him by the end, unless of course more youth continues coming.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... g/htmlview

[ice99]

I was wondering how much protection Judge would have in the dodgers lineup, or would he lead the majors in walks. He's almost a triple crown winner.

Dodgers if they sign a ss like Correa.
Correa
Judge
Betts
Freeman

Phillies
Harper
Judge
Schwarber
Hoskins

[GL_Storm]

This is an argument I think for keeping Flexen around and trading Marco instead, which I personally think was always the better idea but we all know how much they love Marco. Though there was that rumor that JD was shopping him. But when a pitcher has a pitch that is literally one of the best pitches in baseball, that sounds like a recipe for a plateau leap from innings eater to frontline starter if he can elevate the slider to #2 in his pitch mix.

This would also explain why Toronto fans and media are matching Teoscar Hernandez with the Mariners. It's much more clear.

[Donn Beach]

Okay well we shall see, talk about selling low.

I am sure many said the same about selling Enron for $10 a share or Evan White or JK after the 2021 seasons. Getting something is better than nothing..

It has nothing to do with Enron. The guy has hit his entire career, two seasons removed from starting in the all star game. I'd rather gamble on a rebound than trade him. But you're saying I can't because I'm required to trade him due to his impact in the clubhouse. So we got a guy we are trying to move because he struggled and oh by the way he's a clubhouse cancer, if that's not selling low I don't know what is

[Donn Beach]

Understand this thing about his being sent home is entirely Divishs personal opinion, it's not like he bothered to verify it with an actual source

."I think he was home. I was curious because he didn't make the trip when we went to Toronto and then Houston, and I asked. And they said, 'Well, he wanted to get a second opinion on his neck.' … I think they probably just told him to go home.

What dipoto had to say...

.

“He had a knee surgery on the 11th of October in New York, spent six days in New York while we were on our playoff train,” Dipoto said. “And while I do understand some of the frustrations that surround Jesse’s season – he didn’t have the kind of season he wanted to have or that we expected – but he was dealing with the knee. And it is not a potential surgery that he’s waiting for on his neck, it’s an actual surgery.”

Additionally, Dipoto said Winker, “Was dealing with with real issues that not a lot of people around the club – and even the players in the clubhouse – were aware of because that’s not stuff that you naturally share every day.”
“It was unfortunate that train got a little out of control there, but Jesse’s a good player who didn’t have a particularly good year, and he was dealing with some physical ailments along the way,” Dipoto said. “We urged him to have the knee surgery when he did because the neck was going to keep him on the IL, and we thought it made the most sense to get it done now so that he can recover and be back and ready to go.”

So can Winker recover and have a bounce back year in 2023?

“I don’t know why it would change. As I said yesterday during our presser, Jesse is 28 years old and has historically been not just a good major league hitter, but an excellent major league hitter,” Dipoto said.

Throughout his career, Winker has been an offensive “metronome” with consistent metrics and numbers, Dipoto said.

“He gets on base and slugs. We didn’t see that.”

But Dipoto and Co. saw many good things from Winker that could lead to a good year in 2023 after recovering from his injuries.

“His pitch selection, his ability to identify what to swing at what to take, his walk percentage, all these things are very similar, if not better, than they’ve ever been. So his process was very good,” he said. “Unfortunately, what we saw was a decreased bat speed and a decreased exit velocity and a decreased exit angle that affected the result.”

And Dipoto thinks those decreased metrics may be in large part to the injuries.

“They’re strength-based issues that I think can easily be chalked up to struggling through injury,” Dipoto said. “And I would also add that Jesse played more than he’s ever played in his career. Whether it was through need because we needed him to face lefties because we were shorthanded or the fact that we wanted to give him that opportunity to go out there and get it done, and he wanted to show that he can be an everyday player rather than simply a high-end platoon … But all the underlying information suggests if we can get him back to a healthy, strong base, then all of the results should start to flow like they always have.”

[D-train]

If the only issue was that he hit like shit this year? I'd agree with you. BUT, if he hit like shit because he is a bad team mate, doesn't work hard and doesn't care? Then fuck him. Send him to Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Washington or Oakland or some other waste land.

I totally agree. I would like to be rid of him.

But it's a double edged sword. We try to get rid of him for all the reasons you just stated. But who wants to take our turds? The league is not that big that other teams don't know what they're trading for. So who would take him? I would love to trade my 1996 Tercel that leaks oil and fart-fails emission tests for a 2022 Tesla Model X. Sure, the Tercel used to be a nice car, but still...

The other edge of the sword is that a team might want to take him because he is an single-season-removed All-Star who has a history of hitting, and he's on the right side of 30, and he could likely turn it around if he applies himself. But those are the same reasons we would want to hold on to him. The fact that he's an apparently shitty teammate notwithstanding, he's a decent outfielder and a pretty good hitter. Basically, he still has the potential to be the kind of player we'd hope to get if we traded him.

The dude's a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma. Or enema. I can never remember which.

Was thinking Divish cost the org millions in value in one radio interview. But the value is still well above ZERO. If you recall we once traded for Milton freakin Bradley...

[D-train]

Yes, probably. But there could be some nuance there as well. My guess is that they're probably more concerned about long term payroll management than they are about the payroll in one or two particular seasons, and that's why they're not jumping to break the bank in both dollars and years for good but not great players, even though the conventional wisdom is that you need to overpay to get free agents to come here.

Yeah agree and that's why I don't think you can say they can just trade Winker, Marco and Flexen to pay for Judge or someone else who will get a 5-8 year deal. Works for year 1 and then it falls apart. I hate they think like that but its their loot.

To me it is nearly that simple because it's basically just eating up the salary that drops off of the payroll when those guys leave.

It's more just an example of how the same dollars could be better spent in the time they are here than blindly acting like there are no further encumbrances going forward.

The end result is that instead of those guys leaving and the payroll dropping, the payroll doesn't drop the following year, but you already have Aaron Judge on your team, and he was nearly free for the first year because we shed the payroll of guys we didn't really need (Winker/Marco/Flexen) to help pay for it.

If they traded Winker/Flexen/Marco for salary relief and then pay Judge $37.5M, he'd be a payroll hit of $15M the first season.

Marco also gets paid $12M in 2024, so Judges net for 2024 is $25.5M.

Makes sense to me We don't need Winker, Marco or Flexen anyways, especially with Judge here.

Thanks. I can see that. I wonder if they think of it that way. We are talking about 6 man rotation, DH is a field hospital Jerry after all.

[D-train]

https://theathletic.com/3740190/2022/10 ... decisions/

I appreciate you being 100% onboard with my opinion, but it wasn't really my opinion that I was sharing. However, I didn't disclose this either. But with that said, you know what they say about opinions...

My math says three. I did forget about Marlowe so my two was one short.

Let’s get to the players the Mariners are likely to protect. I think Campbell, Marlowe and Berroa make it.

Are you sure?

Yes

[Donn Beach]

. Divish got a hold of a bit of a story and tried to play it for all it was worth. This thing about winker being sent home is a figment of his imagination.

This is what I think, winker isn't going to be traded. By spring training the whole thing will be in the distant past. Winker will have a decent season next year

[D-train]

To me it is nearly that simple because it's basically just eating up the salary that drops off of the payroll when those guys leave.

It's more just an example of how the same dollars could be better spent in the time they are here than blindly acting like there are no further encumbrances going forward.

The end result is that instead of those guys leaving and the payroll dropping, the payroll doesn't drop the following year, but you already have Aaron Judge on your team, and he was nearly free for the first year because we shed the payroll of guys we didn't really need (Winker/Marco/Flexen) to help pay for it.

If they traded Winker/Flexen/Marco for salary relief and then pay Judge $37.5M, he'd be a payroll hit of $15M the first season.

Marco also gets paid $12M in 2024, so Judges net for 2024 is $25.5M.

Makes sense to me We don't need Winker, Marco or Flexen anyways, especially with Judge here.

Right, but what I was saying is that the Mariners concern wouldn't be so much for that first year as all the other years and the increasing risk as the player ages and declines, but is still taking up 38 mil per year on the payroll.

Yeah, their main priority would certainly be whether they think he is going to bring value back for the dollars they commit going forward.

Sending those 3 guys packing just helps them pay for it without a significant bump in the payroll for 2023, and some of 2024.

My point being that it wouldn't be a large boost in payroll going forward. The Mariners committed payrolls go from the high $60M's in 2023/2024 down to $39M by 2025/2026, so signing him still represents a somewhat steady payroll the next 6-8 years. They would definitely need to go up from the $100M current to $150M to continue adding around him by the end, unless of course more youth continues coming.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... g/htmlview

fyi that spreadsheet is a few fries short of a happy meal in the our years. 2026 Payroll is $97M

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/seattle-mar ... roll/2026/