Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

[D-train]

[D-train]

Brock suggests Xander should be signed to play 2B. So sick of these lazy clowns so I replied.

[Big_Maple]

**Spoiler Alter **

I imagine not everyone is happy at posts of paid articles here, so I won't post the text of the Athletic article D-Train referenced. I will say that they present 3 intriguing options for the M's to pursue in the off-season ranging from the absurd to the budget-friendly. None of them involve signing Judge.

The pie-in-the-sky plan would be to sign Xander (and D-Train, I know he won't move to 2B like Brock thinks he will, but there is growing evidence that they will "manage" JP there...so this could work), trade for Bryan Reynolds, and sign Jose Abreu.

The dumpster diving, budget friendly plan is to sign Drury (2B), Profar (LF) and re-sign Mitch (RF).

The plan he settled on was to sign Benentendi and Abreu, and then trade for Reynolds and Espinal.

As Linda Richman would say "talk amongst yourselves".

[D-train]

**Spoiler Alter **

I imagine not everyone is happy at posts of paid articles here, so I won't post the text of the Athletic article D-Train referenced. I will say that they present 3 intriguing options for the M's to pursue in the off-season ranging from the absurd to the budget-friendly. None of them involve signing Judge.

The pie-in-the-sky plan would be to sign Xander (and D-Train, I know he won't move to 2B like Brock thinks he will, but there is growing evidence that they will "manage" JP there...so this could work), trade for Bryan Reynolds, and sign Jose Abreu.

The dumpster diving, budget friendly plan is to sign Drury (2B), Profar (LF) and re-sign Mitch (RF).

The plan he settled on was to sign Benentendi and Abreu, and then trade for Reynolds and Espinal.

As Linda Richman would say "talk amongst yourselves".

Its TWalk amongst yourselves. I think it is fine to post paywall stuff every now and then. I have no issue post Times stuff since I battled with them for years about spam and they didn't do shit.

[D-train]

Here it is with my comments:

By Corey Brock

In the past calendar year, consider what the Mariners have done with long-term contracts.

They gave free-agent starting pitcher Robbie Ray $115 million over five years. They followed that up by inking rookie Julio Rodríguez to a contract that guarantees him $210 million with an opportunity to earn more. Then, after trading for starting pitcher Luis Castillo, Seattle gave him a five-year contract worth $108 million.

Does this mean that the Mariners — coming off consecutive 90-win seasons and a postseason series victory — have moved on from working the roster fringes (hello, Ryon Healy, Dee Gordon and others) with the hope of improving their team by way of much greener ($$$) pastures?

We’re about to find out.

The Mariners head into this offseason with the opportunity to improve the roster and have several spots where they can address their most glaring needs (specifically, the offense). Will they swing big with one or more free-agent signings (including one of those shortstops you really want?) or pull off a big trade to help augment the offense? What about both?

Will ownership continue its recent spending spree knowing that interest in the team hasn’t been this high in decades and that their competitive window is wide open? That window won’t remain open forever (unless, apparently, you’re the Astros). At any rate, now is the time to be decisive.

go-deeper
GO DEEPER

How the Mariners might navigate their 40-man roster, Rule 5 decisions

With that in mind, let’s dive into three distinct plans the Mariners might utilize this winter to build a stronger roster for 2023.

Plan 1: Hey, look at us!
This is the all-in, we’re-going-for-it plan. But before you head on down to the team store to get your new jerseys, understand this: I don’t know how fathomable this is, but if the Mariners find a way to complete all three of these deals, you can never ever complain about them not spending again. Deal?

Sign INF Xander Bogaerts (7 years, $185 million): Bogaerts will play next season at age 30 and while the back end of this contract might not look great (few actually do), there’s no reason to think he can’t continue to be a force offensively moving forward. Bogaerts has posted a wRC+ of 130 or higher in each of the past five seasons and had a 6.1 fWAR in 2022. He could have a big impact on this offense, allowing other hitters to settle in spots in the order that match their skill sets better. The cost is steep but it’s worth it. How do you sort out who slides to second base in the near term — Bogaerts or J.P. Crawford? Sorry, I don’t make the lineup. Eventually, he’ll probably settle in at third base. But he’s fine at shortstop for now (or … second baseman!). Good signing but stfu already about him moving

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Trade for OF Bryan Reynolds (Pirates): It’s finally time to go get Reynolds, who slots in much better in left field defensively than anywhere else. This guy is two years removed from a 6.1 fWAR season and is spinning his wheels in Pittsburgh. As these things go, the cost will be steep — but it will be worth it for what he adds. To land Reynolds, let’s start with these four prospects: RHP Taylor Dollard, LHP Adam Macko, infielder Michael Arroyo and outfielder Jonatan Clase. Dollard had a monster season in Double A and is close to big-league ready. Love it

Sign 1B/DH José Abreu (2 years, $35 million): Sure, Abreu will be 36 in January and his power essentially disappeared in the second half of last season, but he would still be a boon for this offense, playing some first base or serving as the primary DH in 2023. This guy has a career wRC+ of 133 and Steamer has him pegged for a 126 wRC+ and a 2.6 fWAR in 2023. His plate discipline fits exactly with what the Mariners like and he’ll be a massive hit in the clubhouse with many of the team’s younger players. Fine with it

Plan 2: This works, too!
I still think the trade route is the preferred method of doing business for the Mariners (and it opens up a bigger and entirely different catalog of potential player acquisitions), but this plan still involves two free-agent signings to go along with one trade. It might not be the Bogaerts-Reynolds-Abreu bonanza, but this still figures to make Seattle better in 2023.

Trade for 2B Santiago Espinal (Blue Jays): We covered this Tuesday when I collaborated with our Blue Jays writer, Kaitlyn McGrath. I can’t say exactly what the Mariners can get for pitcher Chris Flexen (a free agent after 2023), but we tossed in reliever Penn Murfee to sweeten the deal for Espinal, who plays a Gold Glove second base, is the kind of bat-to-ball guy the Mariners covet and doesn’t strike out much. Espinal was an All-Star in 2022, is under club control and his bat should add production to the lower part of the order. why tf does he have a hard on for this guy?

Sign LF Andrew Benintendi (4 years + mutual option, $60 million): With Mitch Haniger set to test the open market and no assurances that Jarred Kelenic will be able to take left field and run with it, the Mariners need another outfield bat who offers many of the things they covet — line drives, a strong on-base profile, won’t strike out a lot. I mean, really, this should be everyone’s type. I would go out and do this deal today if I’m the Mariners. Run, don’t walk, Jerry/Justin. So Espinal had 7 HRs and Andrew had 5. FFS


Sign OF Michael Brantley (1 year, $15 million): Come home, Michael. Brantley’s father, Mickey, played four seasons for the Mariners (1986-89) and was one of my favorites as a kid. The younger Brantley was limited to 64 games this past season with the Astros and missed the postseason, but he’s still got something left in the tank. He’ll be 36 in May but don’t let that scare you. Steamer has him projected with a wRC+ of 117. He walks, doesn’t strike out much and can play right field or DH on occasion. And he’ll be a mentor à la Carlos Santana, who was such a hit in Seattle last season. Oh and Brantley had 8 his last full season. Does he think it is 1916 and this is the dead ball era or what???

Plan 3: It’s not you, it’s me This plan is such a complete joke I am not even going to waste my time on it
I know that no one wants to hear this, but sometimes free-agent targets prefer to sign elsewhere (even if the money is close). It happens. So this is a back-up plan for 2023. Also, this is the only plan we’re currently offering where Haniger returns to Seattle.

Sign 2B Brandon Drury (2 years, $17 million): I was really hoping the Brewers would decline their option on Kolten Wong, who would have been a good fit with the Mariners. But they didn’t, so here we are. Drury was far better in a hitter-friendly ballpark in Cincinnati than in San Diego, where his wRC+ dropped from 131 to 105. He’s OK defensively and could benefit from time with Mariners infield coach Perry Hill.

Sign LF Jurickson Profar (2 years, $22 million): I was pulling hard for the Mariners to find a way to add Profar last winter. A highly touted prospect as an infielder early in his career, Profar has reinvented himself into a plate-discipline machine and, actually, a pretty good defensive left fielder. Doesn’t chase, doesn’t strike out, will take a walk. This isn’t a sexy signing by any means, but Profar can certainly help.

Sign RF Mitch Haniger (3 years, $26 million): You wanted Haniger back, you got him! You didn’t think we’d rule out a return for Haniger in 2023, did you? The fact is the Mariners like him. He likes the Mariners. But Haniger is also at the point where he should see what the open market will yield for him after finally reaching free agency. This guy was a 6.0 WAR player in 2018 but has dealt with some injuries. I would still love to see what Haniger can do with another 500 plate appearances.

What we would do This plan is ok but pretty meh other than Reynolds.
In our world, we write the checks but the money comes out of John Stanton’s account. Honestly, the haul below feels like a very nice winter for the Mariners if they can pull it off. You won’t like that the big shortstop targets aren’t included. I think they will sign elsewhere and not with Seattle. It’s just my hunch and I’m trying to be as realistic/pragmatic as possible. This plan makes the offense better in 2023. There’s no disputing that.

Sign Benintendi: Let Benintendi hit second behind Julio Rodríguez and you’re looking at a runner on third base with no outs a lot in 2023 (or, at least that’s the hope). Gold Glove-caliber defense in left field and everything the Mariners want in a hitter (minus the power). Makes sense to me.

Trade for Espinal: Sticking to my guns on this one. Again, I just don’t think Carlos Correa/Dansby Swanson/Bogaerts come to Seattle. I think Espinal is better than his projected 106 wRC+ in 2023.

Sign Abreu: Love the bat, love the personality, love the competitiveness. There’s still production left in Abreu’s bat and he’ll certainly love joining a team on the rise.

Trade for Reynolds: Adding Benintendi takes care of left field (or you can move him to right field), but adding Reynolds makes sense if you’re hoping for a Benintendi-Julio-Reynolds outfield. Lots of production there. If Kelenic is still a question mark and you have no plans to let Jesse Winker play the outfield again, doesn’t all of this make sense?

[ice99]

I wouldn't choose TMobile if I were Bogaerts. He has the best chance of the FA shortstops to get 3000 career hits.

[D-train]

I wouldn't choose TMobile if I were Bogaerts. He has the best chance of the FA shortstops to get 3000 career hits.

I know ballparks impact hits but I don't think I will ever fully understand why.

[D-train]

I wouldn't choose TMobile if I were Bogaerts. He has the best chance of the FA shortstops to get 3000 career hits.

If you could get 3000 hits OR get 2900 hits AND play with Julio for 7 years, what would you choose?

[Big_Maple]

I wouldn't choose TMobile if I were Bogaerts. He has the best chance of the FA shortstops to get 3000 career hits.

I know ballparks impact hits but I don't think I will ever fully understand why.

I sort of get the heavy marine air keeping balls in the park, and the thin air in Denver letting them carry. But I guess it must be the dimensions of the outfield. Baseball is the only sport I know that doesn't have exact dimensions for its entire playing area.

I always thought that TMobile had a big outfield which allowed for more singles and doubles, but which made it hard to hit homeruns. So this park wouldn't be the first choice for buys with big bats (...like Judge...?) But I don't really know.

[ice99]

I wouldn't choose TMobile if I were Bogaerts. He has the best chance of the FA shortstops to get 3000 career hits.

I know ballparks impact hits but I don't think I will ever fully understand why.

There's also less plate appearances due to the ballpark suppressing offense.