https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/uw- ... subscriberIs Michael Penix Jr. as good as gone? Assessing the star Husky QB’s looming NFL draft decision
Mike Vorel By Mike Vorel
Seattle Times staff reporter
Is Michael Penix Jr. as good as gone?
That may seem like the sentiment, considering UW’s electric lefty leads the nation in passing (3,640 yards) and has set single-game records for passing yards (516) and completions (36, twice) in a dominant debut season in Seattle. The redshirt junior cemented his local legacy last weekend as well, throwing for 408 yards and two touchdowns in a 37-34 win at then-No. 6 Oregon.
With games against Colorado and Washington State still to come, Penix has completed 67.1% of his passes and totaled 27 touchdowns and six interceptions.
But will the redshirt junior — who has one season of eligibility remaining — leverage his ascension into an entry in the 2023 NFL draft?
“I’m just locked into the present and what I can do for this week to help this team get a win against Colorado,” Penix said Tuesday, embracing the politically savvy approach. “So I really haven’t been thinking about it. I’ve just been locked in on this team. After the season, that’s when those thoughts and those questions will come up for me.”
Privately, those questions are already being asked — and answered. UW coach Kalen DeBoer said Monday “there’s certainly conversations that position coaches or myself are having (with players considering declaring for the draft) as the season’s gone on. We’re trying to help them out. We’re just trying to educate them, and we’re doing some things this week as well. We try to do that continually on a year-round basis, have different moments throughout the year where we’re educating the masses, and then narrowing it down to help (the possible early entrants) with the scope of what’s going on.
“It’s too late, I think, if you wait until after the season’s completely over, because people are going to be all over these guys to try to figure out what they’re doing.”
Regarding Penix, that intrigue marks a stark contrast to the quarterback’s deflated draft stock last summer. The 6-foot-3, 213-pounder threw just four touchdown passes and seven interceptions in five games at Indiana in 2021, before a separated shoulder prematurely ended his season.
“He’s forcing scouts to reevaluate their previous opinions, because he really had no buzz over the summer,” said Dane Brugler, an NFL draft analyst for The Athletic. “He wasn’t really considered a draftable player at Indiana. Then you factor in the medicals, which are still an unknown variable at this point. What are the long-term concerns? Those are all things that get worked out at the combine.
“But just focusing on what he has put on tape at Washington, the tape shows a draftable player, no doubt. Above average velocity on his throws, has no trouble making out throws from the far hash. I really like what he does on the move — sprint outs, any type of backfield action. He’s not a top tier athlete, but he has enough mobility. He can scramble for the sticks. He’s a good-sized player, verified 6-2 and a quarter, 216 pounds. There are some things working against him. His mechanics are not ideal. He’s got a long delivery. He’s guilty of over-striding or not following through or not driving through his hips. But what he’s doing is working for him.”
On Nov. 3, Penix was listed at No. 10 on ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr.’s 2023 quarterback big board — behind No. 1 CJ Stroud (Ohio State), No. 2 Will Levis (Kentucky), No. 3 Bryce Young (Alabama), No. 4 Anthony Richardson (Florida), No. 5 Hendon Hooker (Tennessee), No. 6 Bo Nix (Oregon), No. 7 Jaren Hall (BYU), No. 8 Max Duggan (TCU) and No. 9 Jayden Daniels (LSU). Stroud, Levis and Young are considered consensus top-10 picks.
But Penix’s stock may also be limited by his injury history. The Tampa product’s four seasons at Indiana each ended in injury — ACL tears in 2018 and 2020, a sternoclavicular joint (connecting the clavicle to the sternum) injury in 2019, and the AC joint shoulder issue in 2021. Penix completed 59.4% of his passes and threw for 4,197 yards with 35 total touchdowns and 15 interceptions in 20 games at Indiana.
His best football, by far, has been played this fall.
But might Penix’s injury issues provide more motivation to declare for the draft — considering the precariousness of his skyrocketing success?
“With the medical situation, no one knows more than him that you never know when the next hit could be it for you,” Brugler said. “With what he’s gone through and all the times working back from those injuries, it’s such a personal decision. You could understand either way. You could understand if, when you see the talent on this team, he says, ‘I could come back and we could fight for a Pac-12 title. I can get better in the process. More reps is exactly what I need.’
“But at the same time, if he says, ‘My time is now. I’ve put together a really strong 2022. I put some really good tape out there. With the injury situation, now is the time to go,’ you could make a case either way. And with NIL, it really makes these decisions a lot tougher. Because it isn’t strictly a money issue.”
In the NIL era, might Montlake Futures — UW’s donor-led collective — provide enough opportunities to entice the Huskies’ star quarterback to stay? The fan base certainly understands Penix’s importance to an offense that leads the nation in passing (374 yards per game) and completions of 10 yards or more (154) and ranks third in third down conversions (54.68%), fourth in first downs (27 per game), fifth in pass attempts (43.9 per game), 13th in scoring (38.4 points per game) and 15th in passing touchdowns (25) and yards per play (6.7).
On Tuesday, senior left guard Jaxson Kirkland said what separates Penix is “his preparation and his details. It’s very rare that man makes a mistake when it comes to the X’s and O’s of the offense. As soon as we come out for practice in the morning he’s dialed. He’s already ready to go for the week. It’s never, ‘Dang, I’ll get it right.’ No, he’s already prepared for the practice, and he limits his mistakes and he’s extremely consistent.”
Penix’s consistency has paid dividends at UW this fall.
Time will tell whether that continues to be the case.
“I really like the veteran awareness that he shows,” Brugler said. “He does a really nice job identifying vulnerable match ups pre-snap. He knows where the blitz is coming from. It’s a spread-out offense, so I think that really stretches the defense, when you have a mobile quarterback with his experience, with his arm talent. So you want to see him continue to improve the decision making and accuracy throughout the year.
“But there’s no question, he’s been impressive and put himself into position to force scouts to reevaluate. He’s on a draftable trajectory right now, as long as the medicals are OK.”
Mike Vorel: mvorel@seattletimes.com; on Twitter: @MikeVorel. Mike Vorel is the UW football beat writer for The Seattle Times.
Sometimes I don't understand these guys. One sentence about NIL, but no mention about if he has already received any? Maybe Michael has been asked and declined to comment, but even that would be news worthy. I realize NIL $ isn't public knowledge, but I happen to know the young girl from Cashmere that plays hoops at Louisville is doing very well. Maybe that is just because I know the family and the situation? I just don't think these things are hidden.
Why not dive deeper? Where is Pennix slated to be drafted, and what is the salary look like at that spot, compared to potential NIL $? If he is the #10 QB this year, is there any indication that he could jump way up next year? Could he be looking at 4th or 5th round this year, but another year of proving health and talent moves him way up, and if so, what does that do to the money?
I like Vorell, but recently he has written two articles about NIL that have been extremely lacking. The one a few days ago about Billy Joe and the money that ended the Dynasty. He pretty much types a bunch of words that say nothing.
https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/uw- ... -football/In a May presentation to the University of Washington Board of Regents, athletic director Jen Cohen noted that “people are still breaking the rules with inducement. They’re taking kids away from schools. And I think [the NCAA] will make an example of a couple schools. I think they have to. There’s a lot of pressure to do that.
“But we’re not going to be in that lane. You don’t want us to be in that lane. We are in the lane of trying to find every student-athlete at Washington who wants an NIL deal, an NIL deal.”
Still, because of the NCAA’s inability to enforce its guidelines — and the debatable definition of “improper inducements” — Caspino is unconvinced the metaphorical hammer will ever fall.
“No. 1, they can’t prove why a kid went somewhere,” said Caspino, who claims to have represented 200-plus college athletes. “No. 2, it violates antitrust laws, so I doubt they will ever enforce it under any circumstances.”
· · ·
Which means, according to Caspino, “this is the new norm.”
Your available choices: respond or rot.
“I think there’s a couple quarterbacks in our league making more than I am, and I accept that,” joked Washington State coach Jake Dickert, who earns an annual salary of $2.7 million, in a news conference last month. “But at the end of the day, it’s something we need to evolve with, and do it our way.”
Last offseason, the Cougars’ collective extended a $90,000 deal — via $50,000 in cash for promotional appearances, plus a provided apartment and a pickup truck — to secure the services of Incarnate Ward quarterback Cameron Ward, according to radio host and columnist John Canzano. (Players are not required to publicly disclose NIL deals.)
Many of the Pac-12’s premier quarterbacks — including UW’s Michael Penix Jr., Oregon’s Bo Nix, USC’s Caleb Williams and Arizona’s Jayden de Laura — arrived via the transfer portal as well.
For collectives and programs, that may present a more proven and affordable option — considering “you’re not seeing the big multimillion dollar deals out of the portal,” Caspino said.
High school recruiting is not so simple. And yet, UW coach Kalen DeBoer and Co. have secured commitments from a pair of three-star quarterbacks in Lincoln Kienholz (2023) and Caminong.
“We’re still going after the top quarterbacks, the ones we feel really can come in here and be great,” DeBoer said last week. “I feel like we’ve done that. We couldn’t be more fired up about the quarterbacks we got coming into our program in the years to come.”
Added offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Ryan Grubb, when asked how NIL factors into his evaluation and recruitment of quarterbacks: “We talk about their actual recruitment piece first. Is there a possible relationship? Would they take the money part out of it first and try to see if there’s something there — both in the scheme that we run, the school that we have, the people that are around? Is there a mutual fit there? OK, if there is [a fit] you have to gauge the level where the money piece comes in.”
Besides, there’s more than one way to win. Huffman noted that “you’re going to have 10 to 12 potential generational quarterbacks on the front end [of any recruiting class], when you’re looking from a high school standpoint. But then there ends up still being 30, 40 impact college quarterbacks in any one class. It just may not be the obvious one. That’s where it’s still about development and scheme and play calling that help you offset it.
“You look at the teams playing in the national championship last year. One was the No. 1 quarterback in the country [Alabama’s Bryce Young], and the other was a guy who walked on the first time, transferred, then came back [Georgia’s Stetson Bennett]. You can win with the guy who’s not highly touted, especially if you have a good offensive system.”
The closest I could find was from the Athletic, and leads me to believe we won't really be using the NIL to our advantage. Great idea since the University of Nike in PUgene was doing it BEFORE it was legal!
https://theathletic.com/3261170/2022/04 ... ecruiting/The Athletic reported last month that an unnamed five-star prospect had agreed to an NIL deal with a booster collective at an unnamed SEC school that could pay him up to $8 million by the end of his junior year. Tennessee’s donor collective, Spyre Sports, proudly proclaims its goal of raising upward of $25 million each year for NIL opportunities.
Can Washington compete on that front — particularly with regard to contractual guarantees for high school prospects, no matter the written rules?
Does it need to?
Does it want to?
“We’re not going to do stuff like that,” says Emmy Armintrout, the executive director and general manager of Montlake Futures, Washington’s independent donor collective, asked specifically about the QB deal. “And we’re not going to compete with that. That’s never really been our lane, anyway, even pre-NIL. … I want to create something that’s sustainable, and that builds on Washington’s strategic position in the college marketplace already.”