Finally! Official Hot Stove League Thread

[bpj]

That's what I'm saying.

wRC+ and other "park adjusted" stats could be accurate if they compared like hitters. But I don't believe they do.

They credit Pittsburgh right handed hitters with a 100 park factor when RH hitters have a 96. Which is close, but could obviously be more accurate.

Using a players specific Home and Away OPS leaves no guesswork.

[harmony]

That's what I'm saying.

wRC+ and other "park adjusted" stats could be accurate if they compared like hitters. But I don't believe they do.

They credit Pittsburgh right handed hitters with a 100 park factor when RH hitters have a 96. Which is close, but could obviously be more accurate.

Using a players specific Home and Away OPS leaves no guesswork.

An MLB front office undoubtedly is able to run those numbers.

But not casual fans dependent on publicly available information.

The front office and the fan do not share the same information and expertise.

[bpj]

That's what I'm saying.

wRC+ and other "park adjusted" stats could be accurate if they compared like hitters. But I don't believe they do.

They credit Pittsburgh right handed hitters with a 100 park factor when RH hitters have a 96. Which is close, but could obviously be more accurate.

Using a players specific Home and Away OPS leaves no guesswork.

An MLB front office undoubtedly is able to run those numbers.

But not casual fans dependent on publicly available information.

The front office and the fan do not share the same information and expertise.

Yes, and the numbers teams run are probably accurate.

But you saying this to refute actual numbers SoB was showing just isn't the own you acted like it was, because fWAR and wRC+ are park adjusted, in a very general way that isn't all that accurate-

And everyone knows that fWAR and wRC+ take park factors into account.

[Pharmabro]

So, I think I could be satisfied if we went out and signed 3 guys still available:

So
Conforto: He has a bat that that can play 2-3-4-5 in a lineup 2017 to 2020 148, 122, 127, 154///in 2021 he was a 100 OPS+ and was out for 22. He is the left-handed bat we need, and the Metz home park is not Coors I think his numbers transfer. And, he can probably be had on a 1 year 10 to 18M deal.

Chaffin is a good target, and we should have had him last year. Another target is Lucas L. the Yanks put him on DFA so a trade for him could be done.

Myers or even Longoria could be a nice add. Longoria has gone 124 and 114 OPS+ the last 2 years in SF and that park plays a lot like our and the number probably transfer over. Same story with Myers.

[harmony]

So, I think I could be satisfied if we went out and signed 3 guys still available:

So
Conforto: He has a bat that that can play 2-3-4-5 in a lineup 2017 to 2020 148, 122, 127, 154///in 2021 he was a 100 OPS+ and was out for 22. He is the left-handed bat we need, and the Metz home park is not Coors I think his numbers transfer. And, he can probably be had on a 1 year 10 to 18M deal.

Chaffin is a good target, and we should have had him last year. Another target is Lucas L. the Yanks put him on DFA so a trade for him could be done.

Myers or even Longoria could be a nice add. Longoria has gone 124 and 114 OPS+ the last 2 years in SF and that park plays a lot like our and the number probably transfer over. Same story with Myers.

Wil Myers reportedly will sign with the Cincinnati Reds:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/ ... -deal.html

[Coeurd’Alene J]

The Dodgers have until January 6 to add him to the roster……They just added $32 Big ones

[Donn Beach]

.The #Dodgers plan to release Trevor Bauer but have not announced a decision.

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale)

[Sexymarinersfan]

Bryan Reynolds is five months younger than Jesse Winker was last offseason when the Mariners traded for Winker coming off a 2021 season of 2.9 fWAR and 145 wRC+ in 110 games.

Reynolds is coming off a 2022 season of 2.9 fWAR and 125 wRC+ in 145 games.

There is no guarantee that Reynolds can make a successful transition from the NL Central to Seattle.

Then again, there are no guarantees in any move ... or non-move.

I read stuff about how Winker’s work ethic fell off a cliff after he made it as an all star. That, and his apparently toxic personality led to struggles in Seattle. Don’t work? Don’t get better. Asshole in the clubhouse? No one wants to be with you.

Don’t know how much validity there is to any of that, nor do I know much about Reynolds’ work ethic, but he might thrive in Seattle if he tries. Equally, Winker could get his shit together and be an all star again next season.

Not only that, but Winker played in what has been the no. 1 friendliest ballpark to lefty hitters over the past 3 seasons. Winker also hit in a lineup that featured .939 OPS Nick Castellanos, .938 OPS Joey Votto, .835 OPS Jon India, and .809 OPS Tyler Naquin in '21.

In Winker's first 3 seasons, his mid .800 OPS's were the product of a clear home-field advantage where he dropped .900+ OPS's in Cinci but low .700's away. In '21 he had his first true great season on the road (I don't count 2020 for much).

Bryan Reynolds on the other hand... has always been a better hitter on the road. In '19, Reynolds had a .820/.938 home/road split, in '21 .901/.925 and in '22 .759/.851... indicating that he's not simply a product of an easy ballpark to mash in. And he's hit in FAR worse lineups through out his career than Winker did.

But Harmony knows this about Reynolds... I explained this to him the other day.

Winker also faced a lot of shit pitching in the NL Central.

Annnnnd there goes Conforto to the Giants. At least he's close to home.

[Optimistic Ms Fan]

I'm sure most of you would disagree but IF the Dodgers are cutting Bauer I'd consider giving him a shot. Doesnt cost us anything and puts your num 5 as an ace. I know there would be some heat about it but he's served his time and is pretty damn good. The NFL and nba have brought back worse people that have been fine afterwards. Imagine that rotation.... then we only need to trade for at least 1 decent hitter and thats a team with a real world series chance. I know the hippies in Seattle would complain but its worth a thought at least.

[Hasslecracked]

Conforto to Giants for 2 years, 36 mill. What is Dipoto doing?