Where do we stand on Kelenic?

[D-train]

I think it is moot because there is no way in hell JK doesn't wait until FA after all he has been through.

[Big_Maple]

Have we learned nothing? I don't understand Jerry's fascination with overpaying for young talent without a long track record of success while they still have multiple years of cheap control left. He did it with White, Gonzalez and JP and we haven't gotten value out of any of those deals. You can even put Julio in that camp. He had five years of control left and Jerry gave him a lifetime contract after 4 Good months. Hopefully we aren't regretting that contract down the line as we are these others. I just don't understand this mindset of paying unproven guys before you have to. Especially when they then turn around and say they can't afford any free agents. That's not the model for winning baseball. You win by having young cost controlled guys and supplementing that with quality FA. Instead Jerry prefers paying young guys more than he has to and then he supplements it with dumpster diving.

Good points, all.

Look, the kid has come around, no doubt. He's still doing well in mid-May, so I'm convinced he just needed a year to get his head screwed on right, realize he didn't own the game, eat a slice of humble pie and then get coached on improving his swing. If he keeps putting numbers like he has up for the next 3 years, then great - he'll be a fantastic, cheap addition to the roster, and will help us win a ton of games.

But there's no way that kid is going to stay with the team a millisecond longer than he has to, contractually. Between the service time fracas, and the little hissy fit he pitched last season when he removed the Mariners from his social media accounts - he's one unhappy chappy.

I wouldn't jettison him in 4 years at the trade deadline; I'd wait until the end of the season 3 years from now. You'll get a greater return on the investment. Get what you can out of him - he should be a fantastic LFer for several years. Then move him when his value is high. Like I say, he'll never sign an extension with the M's.

[Donn Beach]

And the record here with JK predictions has been right on the mark so far!

[Big_Maple]

And the record here with JK predictions has been dead on so far!

Well, as Yogi Berra would say, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."

Yeah, there's a shit ton of variables. Maybe he crashes and flames out in 12 months. Maybe he quits baseball and becomes an accountant. Maybe he offers to play for the M's for free after 4 years. All of these are unlikely, but still possible versions of reality.

But here's the thing: we actually have a little data to help us. Consider the following:

• The M's already tried to offer him a long term deal. He turned it down. Service manipulation. One unhappy Kelenic.

• Statistically, he is almost certainly going to make more money in the FA market if his numbers are great than staying with the M's.

• JK has, in the past, expressed dissatisfaction with the Mariners - publicly.

You get good players to stay with a franchise if they are happy, and if you offer them a dump truck of cash. In philosophy terms, if the antecedents are false, so's the proposition (if he's happy and rich, then he stays).

So yeah, it's life, and life is complicated, especially 4 years down the road. But we do have a little data to make a logical assumption about what he may or may not do.

[bpj]

Kelenic has a .687 OPS over his last 15 games.

I wouldn't let that kid in sight of a contract.

Let him produce for a couple years and talk extension before he gets expensive in arbitration, if he's still around.

[Donn Beach]

And the record here with JK predictions has been dead on so far!

Well, as Yogi Berra would say, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."

Yeah, there's a shit ton of variables. Maybe he crashes and flames out in 12 months. Maybe he quits baseball and becomes an accountant. Maybe he offers to play for the M's for free after 4 years. All of these are unlikely, but still possible versions of reality.

But here's the thing: we actually have a little data to help us. Consider the following:

• The M's already tried to offer him a long term deal. He turned it down. Service manipulation. One unhappy Kelenic.

• Statistically, he is almost certainly going to make more money in the FA market if his numbers are great than staying with the M's.

• JK has, in the past, expressed dissatisfaction with the Mariners - publicly.

You get good players to stay with a franchise if they are happy, and if you offer them a dump truck of cash. In philosophy terms, if the antecedents are false, so's the proposition (if he's happy and rich, then he stays).

So yeah, it's life, and life is complicated, especially 4 years down the road. But we do have a little data to make a logical assumption about what he may or may not do.

Sure, like how it was explained to me that even if he turned things around it be impossible for him to improve to being even a replacement level player. As I see it all those indicators probably show him signing an extension any day now. lol

[bpj]

Since he was moved up in the batting order on 4/26 Kelenic has a 78 wRC+ with an OPS of .634 and -0.1 WAR.

Jury's still out on him imo. No chance I'd offer him an extension or guaranteed contract at this point.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx? ... &page=5_30

[Pharmabro]

So JK so far
ST (51 ABs) .353 .389 .706 1.095
regular season (165 ABS)So JK so far.297 .350 .564 .914

That is a .960 OPS this year in 216 ABs I'd like to see him get up over .300 and stretch the walks to 10%.
It has been a long time since we had an Edgar like 300/400/500 bat in the lineup.

[Donn Beach]

Since he was moved up in the batting order on 4/26 Kelenic has a 78 wRC+ with an OPS of .634 and -0.1 WAR.

Jury's still out on him imo. No chance I'd offer him an extension or guaranteed contract at this point.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx? ... &page=5_30

I'm not adept at splits but I see May is at 284/.329/ .500/.829 so he seems to have turned things around?

[Pharmabro]

Kind of like the playoff drought the M's have not had a legit 300/400/500 hitter since Edgar in 2001 last accomplished this feat. Coincidence? I think not.

Best by year
23 .297 .350 .564 .914 jk
22 .284 .345 .509 .853 146 Julio
21 .291 .368 .445 .813 128 France
20 .306 .373 .531 .903 151 OPS+ Nola
19 .241 .356 .531 .888 137OPS+ EE
18 .285 .366 .493 .859 139 Mitch but Cano and Cruz were also in the 130s OPS+
17 288 .375 .549 .924 149 OPS+ Cruz
2016 .287 .360 .555 .915 147 Cruz Seager and Cano were also close
2015.302 .369 .566 .936 159 Cruz
2014 .314 .382 .454 .836 142 Cano
2013 .242 .306 .487 .793 123 Ibanez
2012 .276 .394 .456 .850 142 Jaso
11 .273 .348 .417 .766 120 Ackley
10.215 .319 .483 .802 123 Branyan
2009 .352 .386 .465 .851 129 Ichiro
2008 .293 .358 .479 .837 124 Ibanez
2007 .351 .396 .431 .827 122 Ichiro
2006 .289 .353 .516 .869 125 Ibanez
2005 .263 .369 .541 .910 144 Richie S.
2004 .372 .414 .455 .869 130 Ichiro
2003 .294 .406 .489 .895 141 Edgar / Boone was close as well
2002 .300 .403 .490 .893 140 Olerud / Ichiro and Edgar were also close
2001 .306 .423 .543 .966 160 OPS+ (116 wins) Edgar Close (Olerud, Ichiro, Cameron, Boone)