I think we are good at 2B for 2024

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D-train
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Re: I think we are good at 2B for 2024

Post by D-train » Thu Sep 21, 2023 9:53 pm

bpj wrote:
Thu Sep 21, 2023 8:17 pm
harmony wrote:
Thu Sep 21, 2023 7:26 pm
bpj wrote:
Thu Sep 21, 2023 4:49 pm


Do you understand the differences between extrapolation based on actual data and baseball projections?

I showed the rate at which they accumulated WAR.

I didn't guess a rate at which they will perform, I showed the rate at which they did perform.
A commendable sophomoric projection, based on small cherry-picked samples, overlooking age progression/regression, among other variables.

But commendable nonetheless.
Please do tell us what I'm wrong about.
You are supposed to predict that the three part time guys put up 77 wRC+ and -0.1 WAR for the rest of the season! Duh! :lol:
dt

GL_Storm
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Re: I think we are good at 2B for 2024

Post by GL_Storm » Thu Sep 21, 2023 11:11 pm

I think there's a decent chance the Yankees move Gleyber in the offseason and if that's the case I would hope the Mariners are at least in that discussion, even for a one-year rental. And then it also looks like Jorge Polanco will be available as a free agent so they might want to look at him as well, though if he's doing the one-year showcase contract thing he'll likely go to the best hitters park available.

But assuming an actual, clear-cut, no-lie upgrade at the position can't be had, then yeah, just stick with what you have. The position is a fucking desert right now. There's like 5-6 good players, a group of fringe replacement-level bodies, and a whole lot of garbage.

ice99
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Re: I think we are good at 2B for 2024

Post by ice99 » Thu Sep 21, 2023 11:13 pm

bpj wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2023 3:35 pm
Taking a look at how these guys have done since the start of 2022, second base is the least of our problems besides CF.

Both Dylan Moore and Jose Caballero have been better players than JP Crawford according to WAR/600.

Dylan has been worth 2.5 WAR in 403 plate appearances.
JP has been worth 6.5 WAR in 1193 plate appearances.
Cabby has been worth 2.2 WAR in 271 plate appearances.

Dylan has a higher OPS (.746) since the beginning of 2022 than JP (.743) or France (.737), and just behind Geno (.751) and Teo (.760).

Mike Ford has the third highest OPS (.780) in that time, behind only Tom Murphy and Julio.

It's crazy to me to see how they play Ty, Geno and Teo every day, but they hardly use Dylan Moore or Mike Ford.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major ... &pagenum=1
It seems too small of a sample size. How about 2021-2023?

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major ... 3&qual=100

The problem with Cabby playing everyday is he hasn't hit RHP.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major ... geitems=30

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D-train
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Re: I think we are good at 2B for 2024

Post by D-train » Thu Sep 21, 2023 11:24 pm

ice99 wrote:
Thu Sep 21, 2023 11:13 pm
bpj wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2023 3:35 pm
Taking a look at how these guys have done since the start of 2022, second base is the least of our problems besides CF.

Both Dylan Moore and Jose Caballero have been better players than JP Crawford according to WAR/600.

Dylan has been worth 2.5 WAR in 403 plate appearances.
JP has been worth 6.5 WAR in 1193 plate appearances.
Cabby has been worth 2.2 WAR in 271 plate appearances.

Dylan has a higher OPS (.746) since the beginning of 2022 than JP (.743) or France (.737), and just behind Geno (.751) and Teo (.760).

Mike Ford has the third highest OPS (.780) in that time, behind only Tom Murphy and Julio.

It's crazy to me to see how they play Ty, Geno and Teo every day, but they hardly use Dylan Moore or Mike Ford.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major ... &pagenum=1
It seems too small of a sample size. How about 2021-2023?

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major ... 3&qual=100

The problem with Cabby playing everyday is he hasn't hit RHP.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major ... geitems=30
Great point on Cabby
dt

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bpj
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Re: I think we are good at 2B for 2024

Post by bpj » Thu Sep 21, 2023 11:59 pm

ice99 wrote:
Thu Sep 21, 2023 11:13 pm
bpj wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2023 3:35 pm
Taking a look at how these guys have done since the start of 2022, second base is the least of our problems besides CF.

Both Dylan Moore and Jose Caballero have been better players than JP Crawford according to WAR/600.

Dylan has been worth 2.5 WAR in 403 plate appearances.
JP has been worth 6.5 WAR in 1193 plate appearances.
Cabby has been worth 2.2 WAR in 271 plate appearances.

Dylan has a higher OPS (.746) since the beginning of 2022 than JP (.743) or France (.737), and just behind Geno (.751) and Teo (.760).

Mike Ford has the third highest OPS (.780) in that time, behind only Tom Murphy and Julio.

It's crazy to me to see how they play Ty, Geno and Teo every day, but they hardly use Dylan Moore or Mike Ford.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major ... &pagenum=1
It seems too small of a sample size. How about 2021-2023?

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major ... 3&qual=100

The problem with Cabby playing everyday is he hasn't hit RHP.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major ... geitems=30
Depends what you're trying to do with it I suppose.

I'm not forecasting how they will do. It's just looking at how they have done.

It wouldn't make any of them full time players.

They'd be splitting Geno's 700 plate appearances among multiple players, Moore, Caballero, Rojas, Bliss, even Ty France if I had my way, because we'd get an actual 1B that could hit.

What I'm saying is it wouldn't have been hard to replace Geno's (or Ty's) production. Doesn't even seem that debatable.. he's been a league average player.

Maybe Geno would be better next year. I'm not counting on it, so I wouldn't hold the spot for him.

He turns 33 during next season. You don't have to look at the projections to see that he's not trending up.

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Donn Beach
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Re: I think we are good at 2B for 2024

Post by Donn Beach » Fri Sep 22, 2023 12:01 am

I think if Gleyber was going to come to Seattle he'd been here by now. They would have cut a deal at the deadline.

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bpj
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Re: I think we are good at 2B for 2024

Post by bpj » Fri Sep 22, 2023 12:08 am

Geno, Teoscar and Ty France are among the league leaders in plate appearances.

Geno (653 PA's) (16th most in MLB)
Teo (641) (25th)
Ty (625) (36th)

And two of them have dragged us down more than they've helped.

Less than one page of qualified players that are his age or older in MLB, and he has one of the lowest SLG% in the bunch-
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GL_Storm
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Re: I think we are good at 2B for 2024

Post by GL_Storm » Fri Sep 22, 2023 1:23 am

Donn Beach wrote:
Fri Sep 22, 2023 12:01 am
I think if Gleyber was going to come to Seattle he'd been here by now. They would have cut a deal at the deadline.
Are you responding to me? It's hard to tell since you're not quoting me, which is something you do fairly frequently with me and with others. You're also not really engaging with what I said, which is kind of annoying.

ice99
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Re: I think we are good at 2B for 2024

Post by ice99 » Fri Sep 22, 2023 2:12 am

bpj wrote:
Thu Sep 21, 2023 11:59 pm
ice99 wrote:
Thu Sep 21, 2023 11:13 pm
bpj wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2023 3:35 pm
Taking a look at how these guys have done since the start of 2022, second base is the least of our problems besides CF.

Both Dylan Moore and Jose Caballero have been better players than JP Crawford according to WAR/600.

Dylan has been worth 2.5 WAR in 403 plate appearances.
JP has been worth 6.5 WAR in 1193 plate appearances.
Cabby has been worth 2.2 WAR in 271 plate appearances.

Dylan has a higher OPS (.746) since the beginning of 2022 than JP (.743) or France (.737), and just behind Geno (.751) and Teo (.760).

Mike Ford has the third highest OPS (.780) in that time, behind only Tom Murphy and Julio.

It's crazy to me to see how they play Ty, Geno and Teo every day, but they hardly use Dylan Moore or Mike Ford.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major ... &pagenum=1
It seems too small of a sample size. How about 2021-2023?

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major ... 3&qual=100

The problem with Cabby playing everyday is he hasn't hit RHP.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major ... geitems=30
Depends what you're trying to do with it I suppose.

I'm not forecasting how they will do. It's just looking at how they have done.

It wouldn't make any of them full time players.

They'd be splitting Geno's 700 plate appearances among multiple players, Moore, Caballero, Rojas, Bliss, even Ty France if I had my way, because we'd get an actual 1B that could hit.

What I'm saying is it wouldn't have been hard to replace Geno's (or Ty's) production. Doesn't even seem that debatable.. he's been a league average player.

Maybe Geno would be better next year. I'm not counting on it, so I wouldn't hold the spot for him.

He turns 33 during next season. You don't have to look at the projections to see that he's not trending up.
Yes, but other than replacing Geno with a committee, who are you going to get? Chapman seems the only 3B out there, but he seems like he's going to be like Teoscar, but with better defense and lower offense. I'm not so sure about getting defense first player, other than SS and CF.

I guess it comes down to what they can get for Geno. Dipoto/Stanton would like it as it would reduce payroll.

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Donn Beach
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Re: I think we are good at 2B for 2024

Post by Donn Beach » Fri Sep 22, 2023 2:20 am

GL_Storm wrote:
Fri Sep 22, 2023 1:23 am
Donn Beach wrote:
Fri Sep 22, 2023 12:01 am
I think if Gleyber was going to come to Seattle he'd been here by now. They would have cut a deal at the deadline.
Are you responding to me? It's hard to tell since you're not quoting me, which is something you do fairly frequently with me and with others. You're also not really engaging with what I said, which is kind of annoying.
In what way, you're talking about this off season? Maybe, again, I think they must have talked about it, Gleyber been on the market, and Dipoto went and got a second baseman.

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