war/advanced stats

[Captain 97]

I still say WAR doesn't account for the nuance that often decides games.

No Stat does. That doesn't mean you just toss them out as worthless.

Did I say that lol?

I am referring to the whole premise of this thread.

[bpj]

There's not much about WAR or any other nerd stat that you couldn't understand by looking at an actual stat and then adjusting for handedness and park.

Like most of us could look at a guy that puts up a .750 OPS as a right handed Mariner in T-Mobile and realize that he's probably an .800 OPS hitter.

Most of us could look at a Colorado hitter and figure out that if he has an .850 OPS there, he's probably a .750 OPS hitter.

"Advanced" stats are shortcuts for lazy people that blur the lines of reality by using the same adjustments for right and left handed hitters.

It's not much of a controversy to say that looking at JP Crawfords and Julio's standalone OPS's is more accurate than giving JP and Julio the same park adjustment for T-Mobile and looking at wRC+ instead.

JP and Julio both had an .818 OPS this season, but instead of Julio getting a little boost for being a right handed hitter at T-Mobile, wRC+ gives Julio a 126 and JP a 134. Nonsensical.

[D-train]

There's not much about WAR or any other nerd stat that you couldn't understand by looking at an actual stat and then adjusting for handedness and park.

Like most of us could look at a guy that puts up a .750 OPS as a right handed Mariner in T-Mobile and realize that he's probably an .800 OPS hitter.

Most of us could look at a Colorado hitter and figure out that if he has an .850 OPS there, he's probably a .750 OPS hitter.

"Advanced" stats are shortcuts for lazy people that blur the lines of reality by using the same adjustments for right and left handed hitters.

It's not much of a controversy to say that looking at JP Crawfords and Julio's standalone OPS's is more accurate than giving JP and Julio the same park adjustment for T-Mobile and looking at wRC+ instead.

JP and Julio both had an .818 OPS this season, but instead of Julio getting a little boost for being a right handed hitter at T-Mobile, wRC+ gives Julio a 126 and JP a 134. Nonsensical.

I wonder how they have the same OPS and different wRC+. wRC+ give more weight to OBP than SLG???

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major ... =0&team=11

[bpj]

There's not much about WAR or any other nerd stat that you couldn't understand by looking at an actual stat and then adjusting for handedness and park.

Like most of us could look at a guy that puts up a .750 OPS as a right handed Mariner in T-Mobile and realize that he's probably an .800 OPS hitter.

Most of us could look at a Colorado hitter and figure out that if he has an .850 OPS there, he's probably a .750 OPS hitter.

"Advanced" stats are shortcuts for lazy people that blur the lines of reality by using the same adjustments for right and left handed hitters.

It's not much of a controversy to say that looking at JP Crawfords and Julio's standalone OPS's is more accurate than giving JP and Julio the same park adjustment for T-Mobile and looking at wRC+ instead.

JP and Julio both had an .818 OPS this season, but instead of Julio getting a little boost for being a right handed hitter at T-Mobile, wRC+ gives Julio a 126 and JP a 134. Nonsensical.

I wonder how they have the same OPS and different wRC+. wRC+ give more weight to OBP than SLG???

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major ... =0&team=11

Sure seems that way. But should be the complete opposite, "sweeping the bases" is more important than just getting on first base.

Which explains why sluggers like first basemen and designated hitters are undervalued by WAR and guys that do nothing but draw walks seem overvalued.

[D-train]

There's not much about WAR or any other nerd stat that you couldn't understand by looking at an actual stat and then adjusting for handedness and park.

Like most of us could look at a guy that puts up a .750 OPS as a right handed Mariner in T-Mobile and realize that he's probably an .800 OPS hitter.

Most of us could look at a Colorado hitter and figure out that if he has an .850 OPS there, he's probably a .750 OPS hitter.

"Advanced" stats are shortcuts for lazy people that blur the lines of reality by using the same adjustments for right and left handed hitters.

It's not much of a controversy to say that looking at JP Crawfords and Julio's standalone OPS's is more accurate than giving JP and Julio the same park adjustment for T-Mobile and looking at wRC+ instead.

JP and Julio both had an .818 OPS this season, but instead of Julio getting a little boost for being a right handed hitter at T-Mobile, wRC+ gives Julio a 126 and JP a 134. Nonsensical.

I wonder how they have the same OPS and different wRC+. wRC+ give more weight to OBP than SLG???

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major ... =0&team=11

Sure seems that way. But should be the complete opposite, "sweeping the bases" is more important than just getting on first base.

Which explains why sluggers like first basemen and designated hitters are undervalued by WAR and guys that do nothing but draw walks seem overvalued.

It should also be opposite because of the LH vs. RH factor you mentioned. REALLY Bizarre.

[bpj]

I wonder how they have the same OPS and different wRC+. wRC+ give more weight to OBP than SLG???

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major ... =0&team=11

Sure seems that way. But should be the complete opposite, "sweeping the bases" is more important than just getting on first base.

Which explains why sluggers like first basemen and designated hitters are undervalued by WAR and guys that do nothing but draw walks seem overvalued.

It should also be opposite because of the LH vs. RH factor you mentioned. REALLY Bizarre.

Yeah, if they both had an OPS of .818 and Julio had a 135 wRC+ and JP had a 125 wRC+ it would seem a lot more believable.

Instead it's the opposite because wRC+ values OBP more than SLG, and they use a blended park factor instead of separating right handed results and left handed results.

Bass-ackwards.

Someday they will make those changes and at that point it will be "the best we have available". The people who make that claim currently though, are wrong.

[D-train]

I figured it out I think. I think it is because of their home road splits. JP hit better at home so got a massive boost for that and Julio hit better on the road and didn't get as much credit for that?

[bpj]

I figured it out I think. I think it is because of their home road splits. JP hit better at home so got a massive boost for that and Julio hit better on the road and didn't get as much credit for that?

Interesting, but just exemplifies the problem doesn't it?

JP did well in Seattle, then got the benefit of T-Mobiles Park factor to top it off.

[D-train]

Here are the splits:

JP
Home: .841 OPS 145 wRC+
Away: .793 OPS 123 wRC+

Julio
Home: .781 OPS 119 wRC+
Away: .850 OPS 131 wRC+

There it is. JPs average of the two is 134 and Julio's is 125. Almost identical to the actuals of 134 and 126 due to some other minor factor like rounding or something for Julio....

[bpj]

Here are the splits:

JP
Home: .841 OPS 145 wRC+
Away: .793 OPS 123 wRC+

Julio
Home: .781 OPS 119 wRC+
Away: .850 OPS 131 wRC+

There it is. JPs average of the two is 134 and Julio's is 125. Almost identical to the actuals of 134 and 126 due to some other minor factor like rounding or something for Julio....

Very interesting. Have always thought that looking at a players Away stats is a pretty good indicator of what type of player they actually are, without the benefits or drawbacks of their Home park factored in.

If somebody told me that Julio was a 131 wRC+ player and JP was a 123 wRC+ player I wouldn't even question it. Seems about perfect.

I'd like to see them install a left field wall like they have in Houston, maybe a few feet deeper than theirs.