Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

[Seattle or Bust]

Ew.

So we're gonna be terrible again.

Welp that does it, see you guys in 2025.

Aren't you excited about White putting up positive WAR to earn his $8M?? lol

No, but I know one person who is probably over the moon right now.

[D-train]

Should hear about the M's making a QO to Teo tomorrow. He has until the 14th to accept or reject but guessing he rejects almost immediately.

The qualifying offer is a one-year offer worth the mean salary of MLB’s 125 highest-paid players; this year, that amount is $20.325 million. The value, which changes by the year, was $19.65 million for the 2022-23 offseason. This year, offers must be made to eligible players within five days of the conclusion of the World Series, and players then have until 4 p.m. ET on Nov. 14 to accept or reject.

[harmony]

A ton of regression ... most of it in the wrong direction.

[Seattle or Bust]

A ton of regression ... most of it in the wrong direction.

Ya, it's sure a shame that it's all horse shit.

[Pharmabro]

Wow, a lot
They expect a rebound from France.
and
114 WRC+ for JP ( He was around a 130 this year)
Geno stay the same average bat
But they are not high on Rojas, Moore, and Haggerty who have all been above 100 OPS+ for at least 2-3 years.
and they hate Marlow78 & Ford 99 but expect Canzone to be an above average bat 107 WRC+

[Pharmabro]

I noticed the Reds failed to pick up the option on 40-year-old Joey Votto. He was a character. He has 64.5 Career WAR, 1 MVP, 6X All-star, GG, 7X league leader in OBP, 2X tops in OPS, Career 144 OPS+, just to go over a few of his highlights. He finished up 2023 with a 99 OPS+.

?Quick question if he retires today is he Hall of Famer?

Probably a guy that gets in his last 2-3 years of eligibility. For reference future 1st ballot HOFer Ichiro is at 60.0 WAR

That was my position as well. Not a 1st ballot type but his peak was a 9 year stretch 2009-2017 162 OPS+ average and only one season below 150's OPS+ and that was a 62 game stretch of injury shortened 2014. I wonder if he retires or sticks around another year or two.

[D-train]

Wow, a lot
They expect a rebound from France.
and
114 WRC+ for JP ( He was around a 130 this year)
Geno stay the same average bat
But they are not high on Rojas, Moore, and Haggerty who have all been above 100 OPS+ for at least 2-3 years.
and they hate Marlow78 & Ford 99 but expect Canzone to be an above average bat 107 WRC+

Not sure why a France rebound is surprising if he gets fit and hits Driveline. Guys rebound from bad years to career norms all the time. What is surprising is if they repeat their aberration year.
Same with JP. I think last season was likely a one off given the fluky great T Mobile stats and I would peg him at 3-3.5 WAR as well.
Geno I can see imploding given he is one year older. I would take 2 WAR again and then kiss him goodbye.
Ford depends if he gets regular PAs
JKs groupies aren't goin to like his 1.2 WAR projection but seems reasonable to mean given how he produced the VAST majority of the season.
Marlowe is probably because they aren't given him more than 100 PAs...
Cal looks about right but hoping Julio avoids the long cold stretches and takes it the next level in the 7 WAR range.
They have Cabby going from amazing defensively to negative. Why?

[D-train]

Of course M's fans are losing it over no GGs for the M's.

For me it is kind of like getting bit by a mosquito a month after getting mauled by a grizzly bear....

Other than MVPs and CY youngs I don't really give a rats ass about individual awards. I mean is anyone still reveling in White's 2020 GG award.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/TridentTruee/status ... 3381705197 [/tweet]

[D-train]

By Ryan Divish
Seattle Times staff reporter
MESA, Ariz. — As the sun set on Sloan Park early Sunday evening with a small crowd of die-hard baseball fans and large group of scouts in attendance to watch the annual Arizona Fall League “The Fall Star” game, the top executives from every Major League Baseball organization had either arrived or were headed for the Phoenix area.

With the MLB general managers meetings starting Monday afternoon in Scottsdale, the baseball offseason, which officially started Thursday following the Rangers’ World Series-clinching victory over the Diamondbacks, will start to progress at a rapid rate.

Pitchers and catchers will start reporting to spring training in just over 100 days.

The Mariners’ offseason actually started about a month ago, as they were eliminated from a postseason spot by the eventual World Series champs in Game No. 161. With expectations raised from their success in 2022, the Mariners underachieved.

The skepticism surrounding the organization’s upper-level leadership, including the ownership group, and its ability to build a team that truly can contend for a World Series is palpable.

This could be one of the most seminal offseasons since Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto took over as general manager before the 2017 season.

Here’s a few questions that need to be answered this offseason:

Will there be ramifications from all that was said in the final days of the Mariners season?
It’s unlikely there will be any repercussions for Cal Raleigh, who lamented the organization’s failure to add “big-time” players to the roster, after that penultimate game to the season, or for the players that stood behind him and lauded his comments.

Why? Because they weren’t wrong in what was said. The Mariners need to add talent to their MLB roster. It doesn’t take a veteran scout to see that they were lacking in comparison to the Rangers and Astros.

When two of your biggest leaders speak out about their desire to win, it should be met with praise and not punishment.

What will Dipoto say in his Tuesday media availability?
While he offered an apology and tried to clarify some of what was said in a news conference that followed the season, enraging fans and drawing criticism in baseball circles on his weekly radio show two days later, Dipoto has yet to have an open media session.

That should happen during the media session for the American League’s top executives.

RELATED Jerry Dipoto tells Mariners fans what they don’t want to hear
While it’s certain that he regrets what was said, or more likely how he said it and how it was portrayed, Dipoto is also steadfast in what he believes leads to success.

It’s unlikely that he will deviate from his thinking based on fan or even player reaction.

Will the Mariners extend a qualifying offer to outfielder Teoscar Hernandez?
Based on the collective bargaining agreement, the Mariners can extend a qualifying offer of one year at a $20.35 million salary to Hernandez for the 2024 season.

They must make that decision by Monday.

Hernandez can accept it, play for the Mariners in 2024 and become a free agent after the season.

He can also decline the offer and become a free agent and any team that signs him will forfeit a draft pick. The Mariners would receive a compensatory draft pick that is based on the contract he signs with another team.

It comes down to this dilemma: Are the Mariners more concerned that Hernandez accepts that qualifying offer and they have to pay him $20 million next season, or allowing him to become a free agent without any sort of compensation?

When the Mariners didn’t trade him at the deadline, it was assumed that they would make a qualifying offer to Hernandez to salvage something from an offseason trade that provided uneven returns.

Given the weak class of free-agent hitters, most insiders believe Hernandez will decline it because he can get a better multiyear deal on the free-agent market.

What are the Mariners needs?
It’s not complicated: They need hitters that can produce. The specifics of the position shouldn’t be dictatorial.

If you were to look at the players remaining on the roster and in the organization, the Mariners are set at catcher, shortstop and center field. You could probably list third base since Eugenio Suarez is under contract for 2024 and played stellar defense even if his power numbers were down.

The rest of the spots? Nothing should be guaranteed.

But in the interests of specifics, the Mariners need to pick up at least one outfielder to replace Hernandez, a backup catcher to replace Tom Murphy, who reached free agency, and probably one more hitter that can play outfield or a corner infield position.

How will they address those needs?
The free agent class of hitters isn’t overwhelming after Shohei Ohtani. The next tier of hitters features Hernandez, Matt Chapman, Cody Bellinger, Jeimer Candelario, J.D. Martinez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Rhys Hoskins.

The Mariners and T-Mobile Park aren’t exactly a desired destination for top free-agent hitters unless they are paid over market value. It’s something neither Dipoto nor the new ownership group led by John Stanton has accomplished for multiple reasons, including disinterest.

Most baseball insiders feel they will add to their position-player talent by trading a young starter such as Bryan Woo or Bryce Miller to access a hitter from a team desperate for pitching.

The Mariners could offset that loss of starting pitching depth by signing a proven starter, something easier to do given the free-agent pitching market and reputation of the organization and park.

Will they make a run at Shohei Ohtani?
It would be professionally irresponsible to not make a legitimate offer to Ohtani. Even if it seems like other teams are offering way too much or your own contract offer is steep to the point of discomfort, the Mariners can’t be afraid that the most talented baseball player to put on an MLB uniform might say yes to their offer.

Ohtani won’t fix all their problems or make them an immediate World Series contender. But convincing him to sign would be a significant step forward and a message to fans questioning the organization’s desire to win.

Will they spend?
Increasing the payroll budget and spending on free agents won’t make the Mariners a World Series contender. The Padres and Yankees proved that. But that’s also not an excuse to be cheap. Increasing payroll substantially to either use on the free-agent markets or to pay for the salaries of established MLB players in trade will make the Mariners better. There is no excuse for inaction, particularly financial investment. Hoping/believing that Suarez and Ty France will return to previous form, or Jarred Kelenic and Dominic Canzaone will take a step forward isn’t a plan.

So that means they are going to spend, right?

Would you bet your paycheck on it?

[Donn Beach]

The operative paragraph

It’s unlikely that he will deviate from his thinking based on fan or even player reaction