Finally! Official Hot Stove League thread!

[GL_Storm]

I doubt he says this if they had even bothered to reach out to him

After the Mariners jettisoned Teoscar Hernandez and Eugenio Suarez, and with too much time on my hands, the offseason plan going forward:

Contact Scott Boras to discuss a contract with Cy Young lefthander (and Seattle native) Blake Snell. When Snell’s demands fall out of the Mariners’ reach, attention shifts to two other Boras clients: Korean outfielder Jung Hoo Lee and lefthander Sean Manaea.

Sign Jung Hoo Lee to a five-year, $70 million contract (AAV $14 million)

Sign Sean Manaea to a two-year, $24 million contract (AAV $12 million)

Trade six years of Bryce Miller to Cincinnati for five years of project third baseman Spencer Steer (pre-arb minimum salary)

Trade six years of righthander Prelander Berroa to Chicago White Sox for one year (and two team options) of designated hitter Eloy Jimenez (guaranteed 2024 salary $13 million with $3 million buyout of 2025 team option)

The trades may need added pieces on each side although Baseball Trade Values accepts each trade.

The lineup:

SS J.P. Crawford
CF Julio Rodriguez
LF Jung Hoo Lee
DH Eloy Jimenez
C Cal Raleigh
1B Ty France
RF Jarred Kelenic
3B Spencer Steer
2B Luis Urias / Josh Rojas

The Mariners add three bats projected to strike out at below league-average rates highlighted by Lee’s stellar KBO numbers

Infield coach Perry Hill gets to work his magic on another defensively suspect Cincinnati Reds third baseman

If Steer falters, Urias goes to third base

If France falters, Steer goes to first base and Urias to third base

If both fail, it’s Mike Ford time!

FanGraphs projects 2024 WAR of 1.3 in 143 innings for Bryce Miller, who this year posted 1.9 fWAR in 131 innings. FanGraphs projects 2024 WAR of 1.4 in 146 games for Spencer Steer, who this year posted 2.1 fWAR in 156 games.

FanGraphs projects 2024 WAR of 2.0 in 151 innings for lefthander Sean Manaea, who this year posted 1.1 fWAR in 117.2 innings. Manaea would replace Miller in the Seattle rotation.

FanGraphs projects 2024 WAR of 2.2 141 games for Eloy Jimenez, who this year posted 0.4 fWAR in 120 games.

The Mariners don’t have the greatest history with Scott Boras, who slighted the M’s in postseason comments. Among Boras clients, Yusei Kikuchi turned down a player option after three seasons with Seattle. This year Luke Weaver signed with the Mariners on August 22 only to be waived a few weeks later.

The rotation:

SP Luis Castillo
SP George Kirby
SP Logan Gilbert
SP Sean Manaea
SP Bryan Woo

Marco Gonzales and Emerson Hancock provide rotation depth

Lee, Jimenez and Manaea add $39 million to the 2024 payroll after the subtraction of the combined $25 million salaries of Hernandez and Suarez from the 2023 payroll.

Arbitration salary increases add to the payroll:

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/seattle-mariners/payroll/

As always, feedback is welcome.

I like it. They only issues I have is that in no world should a hometown deal for Snell be out of reach by any rational org that made almost $100M in profit and just missed the playoffs. Also, having two totally unproven corner OFers is a significant risk. Manaea is a far better option than Marco as a 5th starter with a relatively low WHIP and a FIP under 4 so that would still leave us with a very good rotation. Steer is a good target and a good return for Miller. Jimenez would be ok for DH but was worse than Ford in 2023 (104 OPS+ vs. 122) so would really be just a move to make a move vs. just keeping Ford, not to mention Jimenez will make almost 10x more than Ford at $13M vs. $1.5M

I'm confused at this Manaea assumption.

[D-train]

After the Mariners jettisoned Teoscar Hernandez and Eugenio Suarez, and with too much time on my hands, the offseason plan going forward:

Contact Scott Boras to discuss a contract with Cy Young lefthander (and Seattle native) Blake Snell. When Snell’s demands fall out of the Mariners’ reach, attention shifts to two other Boras clients: Korean outfielder Jung Hoo Lee and lefthander Sean Manaea.

Sign Jung Hoo Lee to a five-year, $70 million contract (AAV $14 million)

Sign Sean Manaea to a two-year, $24 million contract (AAV $12 million)

Trade six years of Bryce Miller to Cincinnati for five years of project third baseman Spencer Steer (pre-arb minimum salary)

Trade six years of righthander Prelander Berroa to Chicago White Sox for one year (and two team options) of designated hitter Eloy Jimenez (guaranteed 2024 salary $13 million with $3 million buyout of 2025 team option)

The trades may need added pieces on each side although Baseball Trade Values accepts each trade.

The lineup:

SS J.P. Crawford
CF Julio Rodriguez
LF Jung Hoo Lee
DH Eloy Jimenez
C Cal Raleigh
1B Ty France
RF Jarred Kelenic
3B Spencer Steer
2B Luis Urias / Josh Rojas

The Mariners add three bats projected to strike out at below league-average rates highlighted by Lee’s stellar KBO numbers

Infield coach Perry Hill gets to work his magic on another defensively suspect Cincinnati Reds third baseman

If Steer falters, Urias goes to third base

If France falters, Steer goes to first base and Urias to third base

If both fail, it’s Mike Ford time!

FanGraphs projects 2024 WAR of 1.3 in 143 innings for Bryce Miller, who this year posted 1.9 fWAR in 131 innings. FanGraphs projects 2024 WAR of 1.4 in 146 games for Spencer Steer, who this year posted 2.1 fWAR in 156 games.

FanGraphs projects 2024 WAR of 2.0 in 151 innings for lefthander Sean Manaea, who this year posted 1.1 fWAR in 117.2 innings. Manaea would replace Miller in the Seattle rotation.

FanGraphs projects 2024 WAR of 2.2 141 games for Eloy Jimenez, who this year posted 0.4 fWAR in 120 games.

The Mariners don’t have the greatest history with Scott Boras, who slighted the M’s in postseason comments. Among Boras clients, Yusei Kikuchi turned down a player option after three seasons with Seattle. This year Luke Weaver signed with the Mariners on August 22 only to be waived a few weeks later.

The rotation:

SP Luis Castillo
SP George Kirby
SP Logan Gilbert
SP Sean Manaea
SP Bryan Woo

Marco Gonzales and Emerson Hancock provide rotation depth

Lee, Jimenez and Manaea add $39 million to the 2024 payroll after the subtraction of the combined $25 million salaries of Hernandez and Suarez from the 2023 payroll.

Arbitration salary increases add to the payroll:

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/seattle-mariners/payroll/

As always, feedback is welcome.

I like it. They only issues I have is that in no world should a hometown deal for Snell be out of reach by any rational org that made almost $100M in profit and just missed the playoffs. Also, having two totally unproven corner OFers is a significant risk. Manaea is a far better option than Marco as a 5th starter with a relatively low WHIP and a FIP under 4 so that would still leave us with a very good rotation. Steer is a good target and a good return for Miller. Jimenez would be ok for DH but was worse than Ford in 2023 (104 OPS+ vs. 122) so would really be just a move to make a move vs. just keeping Ford, not to mention Jimenez will make almost 10x more than Ford at $13M vs. $1.5M

I'm confused at this Manaea assumption.

What do you mean?

[GL_Storm]

I like it. They only issues I have is that in no world should a hometown deal for Snell be out of reach by any rational org that made almost $100M in profit and just missed the playoffs. Also, having two totally unproven corner OFers is a significant risk. Manaea is a far better option than Marco as a 5th starter with a relatively low WHIP and a FIP under 4 so that would still leave us with a very good rotation. Steer is a good target and a good return for Miller. Jimenez would be ok for DH but was worse than Ford in 2023 (104 OPS+ vs. 122) so would really be just a move to make a move vs. just keeping Ford, not to mention Jimenez will make almost 10x more than Ford at $13M vs. $1.5M

I'm confused at this Manaea assumption.

What do you mean?

Oh I see. It was an offseason plan and he's a free agent. Never mind.

[D-train]

Looks like I was right about the Cards going the FA route to build their rotation. So much for them just handing over their best bats for our 4th and 5th rookie starters...

[harmony]

From Monday's column by Jim Bowden at The Athletic:

The Mariners are not expected to “play” at the dollar amounts it’s going to take to sign either Shohei Ohtani or Cody Bellinger, so it appears they’ll try to lengthen their lineup by landing multiple players who can make more contact than last year’s team, which struggled with swing-and-miss and strikeouts. (Seattle hitters were second in the majors in strikeouts.) The Mariners will focus on younger players in the 24- to 26-year-old range with at least three years of control left.

https://theathletic.com/5091262/2023/11 ... argets-al/

One offseason plan calls for the Mariners to acquire Jung Hoo Lee, Spencer Steer and Eloy Jimenez, hitters ages 25, 26 and 27 with lower strikeout rates and at least three years of team control:

https://www.marinertalk.com/viewtopic.p ... 60#p271859

[Seattle or Bust]

So Sonny Gray signs for a 3-year deal worth $75 million...

And I got skewered for suggesting we could get Snell for a similar deal.

Given Snell's vast injury history... no way I'm signing him long term.

[Seattle or Bust]

Also, the Cardinals are either going to luck out and win 100 or crash and burn again.

There's really no middle ground.

[bpj]

From Monday's column by Jim Bowden at The Athletic:

The Mariners are not expected to “play” at the dollar amounts it’s going to take to sign either Shohei Ohtani or Cody Bellinger, so it appears they’ll try to lengthen their lineup by landing multiple players who can make more contact than last year’s team, which struggled with swing-and-miss and strikeouts. (Seattle hitters were second in the majors in strikeouts.) The Mariners will focus on younger players in the 24- to 26-year-old range with at least three years of control left.

https://theathletic.com/5091262/2023/11 ... argets-al/

One offseason plan calls for the Mariners to acquire Jung Hoo Lee, Spencer Steer and Eloy Jimenez, hitters ages 25, 26 and 27 with lower strikeout rates and at least three years of team control:

https://www.marinertalk.com/viewtopic.p ... 60#p271859

Seems like the type of goal best accomplished through free agency.

If they have an entire team of guys with 3-4 years left on their contracts, then what the hell would they even need Dipoto for going forward?

Such a ridiculous end game to force another agenda like control when getting players. Just get the best players however you can without robbing the farm.

Many people would have preferred if Teo had more years on his deal. Others are glad he's gone. Contract length shouldn't have much bearing on who we go after imo. Guys with less control require less trade capital, that's a positive tradeoff with short term players, not a negative.

[D-train]

From Monday's column by Jim Bowden at The Athletic:

The Mariners are not expected to “play” at the dollar amounts it’s going to take to sign either Shohei Ohtani or Cody Bellinger, so it appears they’ll try to lengthen their lineup by landing multiple players who can make more contact than last year’s team, which struggled with swing-and-miss and strikeouts. (Seattle hitters were second in the majors in strikeouts.) The Mariners will focus on younger players in the 24- to 26-year-old range with at least three years of control left.

https://theathletic.com/5091262/2023/11 ... argets-al/

One offseason plan calls for the Mariners to acquire Jung Hoo Lee, Spencer Steer and Eloy Jimenez, hitters ages 25, 26 and 27 with lower strikeout rates and at least three years of team control:

https://www.marinertalk.com/viewtopic.p ... 60#p271859

So right handed and don't strike out much and 3+ years of control and age 25-27. Should be a few hundred great bats that teams will be willing to trade with those criteria.....

[D-train]

Also, the Cardinals are either going to luck out and win 100 or crash and burn again.

There's really no middle ground.

I actually see them in the middle about .500.