I guess Genius can be lost

[Donn Beach]

So, if we fail, we have to try it again....or LOSE. Kick both extra points? You go to OT. Sorry, it was stupid. Look at the failure on the first two point attempt and add in the four failed attempts inside the five to score in the end! Yeah, they look like an offense that should put all their eggs in that basket!

it turns on the 2 point chance being at 50%, the two two point conversion attempts give you the same chance of tying the game as if you kicked both times, but what you gain is a chance to actually win the game

[D-train]

So, if we fail, we have to try it again....or LOSE. Kick both extra points? You go to OT. Sorry, it was stupid. Look at the failure on the first two point attempt and add in the four failed attempts inside the five to score in the end! Yeah, they look like an offense that should put all their eggs in that basket!

it turns on the 2 point chance being at 50%, the two two point conversion attempts give you the same chance of tying the game as if you kicked both times, but what you gain is a chance to actually win the game

If you recall, Seattle times forum poster KC thought teams should go for two after scoring a TD to put them up 7 in the 4th quarter. If they make it and go up 9 the game is pretty much over. I thought that was a good idea that would be considered unconventional.

[Michael K.]

So, if we fail, we have to try it again....or LOSE. Kick both extra points? You go to OT. Sorry, it was stupid. Look at the failure on the first two point attempt and add in the four failed attempts inside the five to score in the end! Yeah, they look like an offense that should put all their eggs in that basket!

it turns on the 2 point chance being at 50%, the two two point conversion attempts give you the same chance of tying the game as if you kicked both times, but what you gain is a chance to actually win the game

If you recall, Seattle times forum poster KC thought teams should go for two after scoring a TD to put them up 7 in the 4th quarter. If they make it and go up 9 the game is pretty much over. I thought that was a good idea that would be considered unconventional.

Up 7 already? Not the same risk. When you pass on the opportunity to go up 7, that changes things to me. By the same logic, if you are up 8, you should go for 2 to ensure that a TD and FG doesn't tie you? No, you go up two scores by kicking the extra point to go up 9. And I love it, the Panthers fail on their two point play, and they fail four straight times inside the 10 to score a TD...but we are to believe they had a fifty fifty chance of converting one of two two point plays!?

Sorry, the coach blew it....and like I said, I was rooting so hard for them to rule that on the fourth and final attempt at a last second TD they got in, just so they could fail in their next two point attempt, and lose by the points they left on the board by not kicking. There is a time and place for everything, and just because some math geek says you have a fifty fifty chance doesn't make it true. Carolina looked like a guy that couldn't score at the Mustang Ranch with a fist full of hundreds on Sunday...but they are likely to convert a two point conversion?

[D-train]

it turns on the 2 point chance being at 50%, the two two point conversion attempts give you the same chance of tying the game as if you kicked both times, but what you gain is a chance to actually win the game

If you recall, Seattle times forum poster KC thought teams should go for two after scoring a TD to put them up 7 in the 4th quarter. If they make it and go up 9 the game is pretty much over. I thought that was a good idea that would be considered unconventional.

Up 7 already? Not the same risk. When you pass on the opportunity to go up 7, that changes things to me. By the same logic, if you are up 8, you should go for 2 to ensure that a TD and FG doesn't tie you? No, you go up two scores by kicking the extra point to go up 9. And I love it, the Panthers fail on their two point play, and they fail four straight times inside the 10 to score a TD...but we are to believe they had a fifty fifty chance of converting one of two two point plays!?

Sorry, the coach blew it....and like I said, I was rooting so hard for them to rule that on the fourth and final attempt at a last second TD they got in, just so they could fail in their next two point attempt, and lose by the points they left on the board by not kicking. There is a time and place for everything, and just because some math geek says you have a fifty fifty chance doesn't make it true. Carolina looked like a guy that couldn't score at the Mustang Ranch with a fist full of hundreds on Sunday...but they are likely to convert a two point conversion?

Yeah that is the massive point. If your 2 point conversion % is much below 50% then it makes no sense and it sounds like that was the case. Mathematically you need hundreds and even thousands of outcomes for it to prove out. Applying it on a one off basis isn't sound.

[Michael K.]

Plus, it is like flipping a coin. Fifty Fifty doesn't mean that when one flip is heads the next will be tails. It means on each flip there is a fifty fifty chance. Riverboat Roan, the idiot that he is, doesn't realize that and I guess read that as every other time I go for two I will get it. Fifty fifty each time....and since these are all taken as one mass number, do you really think the times that really good QBs playing on really good offenses will skew that number? Carolina not only does not have a really good Qb, their mediocre at best QB doesn't play on a really good offense. They are one McCaffrey injury from going on a long losing streak. It was a dumb ass decision.

[D-train]

Plus, it is like flipping a coin. Fifty Fifty doesn't mean that when one flip is heads the next will be tails. It means on each flip there is a fifty fifty chance. Riverboat Roan, the idiot that he is, doesn't realize that and I guess read that as every other time I go for two I will get it. Fifty fifty each time....and since these are all taken as one mass number, do you really think the times that really good QBs playing on really good offenses will skew that number? Carolina not only does not have a really good Qb, their mediocre at best QB doesn't play on a really good offense. They are one McCaffrey injury from going on a long losing streak. It was a dumb ass decision.

Yeah, that was my point. On million coin flips and you are going to between 49.9% and 50.1%. With two coin flips you have just as good a chance to get two heads or two tails as a split.

[Michael K.]

If you have the Carolina QB with their passing weapons you are just as likely to go 0 for 10! Coach to your personnel, not some math equation you read in a book written by a guy that has never played a down.

[57reasons]

so how about Rivera going for 2 down 8 points with 10 minutes left in the game?...

i also addressed this a couple days ago on a different thread. in short i favored it, even without knowing the analytics backed me up. the advantage i cited is that it provides more options if successful (down 6 means you could kick two field goals to tie instead of needing end zone). and if unsuccessful, could the single point could still be made up with a later TD and 2-point conversion. the more options doesnt just help you on offense, can also influence opponent play-calling strategy.

[Michael K.]

so how about Rivera going for 2 down 8 points with 10 minutes left in the game?...

i also addressed this a couple days ago on a different thread. in short i favored it, even without knowing the analytics backed me up. the advantage i cited is that it provides more options if successful (down 6 means you could kick two field goals to tie instead of needing end zone). and if unsuccessful, could the single point could still be made up with a later TD and 2-point conversion. the more options doesnt just help you on offense, can also influence opponent play-calling strategy.

More options? Down 8 you have one option.

[Donn Beach]

so how about Rivera going for 2 down 8 points with 10 minutes left in the game?...

i also addressed this a couple days ago on a different thread. in short i favored it, even without knowing the analytics backed me up. the advantage i cited is that it provides more options if successful (down 6 means you could kick two field goals to tie instead of needing end zone). and if unsuccessful, could the single point could still be made up with a later TD and 2-point conversion. the more options doesnt just help you on offense, can also influence opponent play-calling strategy.

hadn't thought about 2 point conversions, probably should be used more than they are, if it was baseball they probably would be