Down to Trump or Haley

[Donn Beach]

You can protest a candidates position on an issue but still vote for them. Democrats are known for that kind of stuff. Brought that up before. Democrats argue a lot.

Very true, but the people who write about politics often talk about voter "enthusiasm" affecting turnout. Let's say the large Muslim-American population in Michigan is pissed off at Biden for his support of Israel. Not very many of them cross party lines to vote for Trump, but a few hundred thousand don't vote for Biden -- they "prefer" Biden but aren't going to stand in line for 3 hours to vote for him. That could be enough to swing Michigan to Trump. Same argument for a few hundred thousand college students in Georgia or Wisconsin.

Sure, I'd call it voter apathy, and it's probably more independent voters.

I have a confession, I don't vote. I feel guilty about it. It's really a secret of mine. And I'm hypocritical, I tell people they should vote.

Here you get paid to vote, that is your vote is purchased. It's formal and above board. Local elections, barangay officials. You collect your envelopes after the election. I was impressed. My wife collected her's, it was over p1,000, that's like $20. Heck, for $20 I'd go vote

[Grandma Lynn]

Now I'm curious, why haven't you,
Donn, ever voted? it's no secret
anymore.

[D-train]

Haley needs to drop out....

[ddraig]

These are the only numbers that matter:

Capture.JPG

Yep. If either True or Biden doesn't get people from the middle, it doesn't matter if the percentage they score of voters within their own party is 70, 75, or 99.5.

I just saw a poll that Trump leads Haley 60-30 in South Carolina. If Haley can't win in NH or SC, I don't think she wins anywhere. Worse for her, in many states the Republicans award delegates on a winner-take-all basis. Therefore, Haley might not get many more delegates than she already has earned in Iowa and NH. But I predict she will still end up in second place.

Interesting historical footnote: In 1992, incumbent President George H.W. Bush won the NH primary by 18 points over Pat Buchanan, and the New York Times called it a "jarring political message" to Bush. In 2024, Trump who has been leading in polls for almost a year, won NH over Haley by 11 points, and it's considered game over.

I think Trump might have beaten Biden before Oct 7th but damn that is looking like the kiss of Death. Literally saw a tweet that said Trump was terrible but at least he never backed Genocide. Biden has lost millions of hard core libs because of Gaza and a lot of independents because he is a senile clown hell bent on destroying the country. He is toast barring a miracle.

Probably right. The kicker is the "Super Delegates" the Dims employ at their convention. Basically, each "Super Delegate gets 2 votes for each one of the caucus/primary delegates. So if the Dim Hierarchy doesn't want Biden to run, they can substute anyone who the "Back Room" deals want. I can see them trying to place Michele in as their nominee for President, but she'd be relatively easy to pick off what with her un-censored speeches and lack of experience. A much harder candidate to defeat would be Joe Manchin.

[Donn Beach]

So Donald isn't a Taylor Swift fan

[ddraig]

More intriguing, I believe, than The Don vs. Nikki is who will be the Veep. I think it a foregone conclusion that Trump will be the Presidential candidate for the Republicans. Nikki is out as VP, So who could it be? Ramaswamy is charismatic and a good public speaker, plus he likes to confront the Legacy Media and he's a minority. I doubt it could be DeSantis, but you never know. He needs more Seasoning. Noem and MTG have both been mentioned and they are women so that is a point in their favor. If Trump wants to go with a woman, I think Kari Lake would be a better choice. She has media experience, which could be helpful for Trump. A dark horse as far as I'm concerned is Governor Abbott of Texas. Yeah he's white dude, but he's handicapped and in a wheel chair.

So the field is loaded and whomever Trump selects as his running mate is going to have to continue draining the swamp. That's why I lean heavily toward those with experience dealing with the media. I lean slightly toward Ramaswamy and Lake. What is your choice? Do you have a preference?

[D-train]

More intriguing, I believe, than The Don vs. Nikki is who will be the Veep. I think it a foregone conclusion that Trump will be the Presidential candidate for the Republicans. Nikki is out as VP, So who could it be? Ramaswamy is charismatic and a good public speaker, plus he likes to confront the Legacy Media and he's a minority. I doubt it could be DeSantis, but you never know. He needs more Seasoning. Noem and MTG have both been mentioned and they are women so that is a point in their favor. If Trump wants to go with a woman, I think Kari Lake would be a better choice. She has media experience, which could be helpful for Trump. A dark horse as far as I'm concerned is Governor Abbott of Texas. Yeah he's white dude, but he's handicapped and in a wheel chair.

So the field is loaded and whomever Trump selects as his running mate is going to have to continue draining the swamp. That's why I lean heavily toward those with experience dealing with the media. I lean slightly toward Ramaswamy and Lake. What is your choice? Do you have a preference?

MTG and Lake would be completely disastrous picks and would guarantee keeping Biden in the WH for 4 more years. Vivek has said he doesn't want to be VP but would likely be a good choice. My first pick is Noem. Love her on every level.

[gil]

More intriguing, I believe, than The Don vs. Nikki is who will be the Veep. I think it a foregone conclusion that Trump will be the Presidential candidate for the Republicans. Nikki is out as VP, So who could it be? Ramaswamy is charismatic and a good public speaker, plus he likes to confront the Legacy Media and he's a minority. I doubt it could be DeSantis, but you never know. He needs more Seasoning. Noem and MTG have both been mentioned and they are women so that is a point in their favor. If Trump wants to go with a woman, I think Kari Lake would be a better choice. She has media experience, which could be helpful for Trump. A dark horse as far as I'm concerned is Governor Abbott of Texas. Yeah he's white dude, but he's handicapped and in a wheel chair.

So the field is loaded and whomever Trump selects as his running mate is going to have to continue draining the swamp. That's why I lean heavily toward those with experience dealing with the media. I lean slightly toward Ramaswamy and Lake. What is your choice? Do you have a preference?

MTG and Lake would be completely disastrous picks and would guarantee keeping Biden in the WH for 4 more years. Vivek has said he doesn't want to be VP but would likely be a good choice. My first pick is Noem. Love her on every level.

Tim Scott? Elise Stefanik? Neither has been critical of Trump in the slightest, unlike some other otherwise logical possibilities. Is Trump open to selecting as VP someone who has been a critic?

Here is something from Ramaswamy's 2022 book, "Nation of Victims":

It was a dark day for democracy. The loser of the last election refused to concede the race, claimed the election was stolen, raised hundreds of millions of dollars from loyal supporters, and is considering running for executive office again.

I’m referring, of course, to Donald Trump.

Conservatives have their own victimhood complexes these days; we are, after all, a nation of victims now. All that differs is whom we see as our oppressors. The worst victimhood narrative that afflicts modern conservatives is their budding belief that any election they lose must have been stolen. Instead of distinguishing ourselves as the party that strives for excellence and rejects the easy path of victimhood narratives, we simply created our own. ...

So I was especially disappointed when I saw President Trump take a page from the Stacey Abrams playbook. His claims were just as weak as Abrams’s. She claimed voter suppression, he claimed voter fraud. He filed scores of lawsuits over various claims of fraud, as was his right, but they came nowhere close to changing the outcome in a single state, let alone the several swing states whose results he needed to overturn. In many cases, judges the president himself had nominated ruled against him, a sign of health in our nation’s institutions. Of the sixty-two lawsuits he and his supporters filed, he lost all but one, a minor victory in Pennsylvania that affected few votes. A Supreme Court with a strong conservative majority ruled against President Trump twice.

Top election officials in virtually every state, regardless of party, said they’d found no evidence of any significant level of fraud.

[D-train]

More intriguing, I believe, than The Don vs. Nikki is who will be the Veep. I think it a foregone conclusion that Trump will be the Presidential candidate for the Republicans. Nikki is out as VP, So who could it be? Ramaswamy is charismatic and a good public speaker, plus he likes to confront the Legacy Media and he's a minority. I doubt it could be DeSantis, but you never know. He needs more Seasoning. Noem and MTG have both been mentioned and they are women so that is a point in their favor. If Trump wants to go with a woman, I think Kari Lake would be a better choice. She has media experience, which could be helpful for Trump. A dark horse as far as I'm concerned is Governor Abbott of Texas. Yeah he's white dude, but he's handicapped and in a wheel chair.

So the field is loaded and whomever Trump selects as his running mate is going to have to continue draining the swamp. That's why I lean heavily toward those with experience dealing with the media. I lean slightly toward Ramaswamy and Lake. What is your choice? Do you have a preference?

MTG and Lake would be completely disastrous picks and would guarantee keeping Biden in the WH for 4 more years. Vivek has said he doesn't want to be VP but would likely be a good choice. My first pick is Noem. Love her on every level.

Tim Scott? Elise Stefanik? Neither has been critical of Trump in the slightest, unlike some other otherwise logical possibilities. Is Trump open to selecting as VP someone who has been a critic?

Here is something from Ramaswamy's 2022 book, "Nation of Victims":

It was a dark day for democracy. The loser of the last election refused to concede the race, claimed the election was stolen, raised hundreds of millions of dollars from loyal supporters, and is considering running for executive office again.

I’m referring, of course, to Donald Trump.

Conservatives have their own victimhood complexes these days; we are, after all, a nation of victims now. All that differs is whom we see as our oppressors. The worst victimhood narrative that afflicts modern conservatives is their budding belief that any election they lose must have been stolen. Instead of distinguishing ourselves as the party that strives for excellence and rejects the easy path of victimhood narratives, we simply created our own. ...

So I was especially disappointed when I saw President Trump take a page from the Stacey Abrams playbook. His claims were just as weak as Abrams’s. She claimed voter suppression, he claimed voter fraud. He filed scores of lawsuits over various claims of fraud, as was his right, but they came nowhere close to changing the outcome in a single state, let alone the several swing states whose results he needed to overturn. In many cases, judges the president himself had nominated ruled against him, a sign of health in our nation’s institutions. Of the sixty-two lawsuits he and his supporters filed, he lost all but one, a minor victory in Pennsylvania that affected few votes. A Supreme Court with a strong conservative majority ruled against President Trump twice.

Top election officials in virtually every state, regardless of party, said they’d found no evidence of any significant level of fraud.

Scott and Elaine are pretty good politicians but neither are particularly likable or charismatic and would not be strong POTUS candidates in 2028 which is the most important criteria....

[Seattle or Bust]

More intriguing, I believe, than The Don vs. Nikki is who will be the Veep. I think it a foregone conclusion that Trump will be the Presidential candidate for the Republicans. Nikki is out as VP, So who could it be? Ramaswamy is charismatic and a good public speaker, plus he likes to confront the Legacy Media and he's a minority. I doubt it could be DeSantis, but you never know. He needs more Seasoning. Noem and MTG have both been mentioned and they are women so that is a point in their favor. If Trump wants to go with a woman, I think Kari Lake would be a better choice. She has media experience, which could be helpful for Trump. A dark horse as far as I'm concerned is Governor Abbott of Texas. Yeah he's white dude, but he's handicapped and in a wheel chair.

So the field is loaded and whomever Trump selects as his running mate is going to have to continue draining the swamp. That's why I lean heavily toward those with experience dealing with the media. I lean slightly toward Ramaswamy and Lake. What is your choice? Do you have a preference?

MTG and Lake would be completely disastrous picks and would guarantee keeping Biden in the WH for 4 more years. Vivek has said he doesn't want to be VP but would likely be a good choice. My first pick is Noem. Love her on every level.

I'm curious your thoughts on how the right might accept a Hindu Indian as their presumptive vice leader? His list of commandments state, "God is real." How might some folks grapple with the fact Vivek does not believe that Jesus is God?

Wasn't the whole point of making Pence VP to sway the Christian Right? How does Vivek appeal to this sect of the voting population that are far less policy oriented and far more driven by cultural/ethical issues? There has never been a president or vice president that hasn't professed to being a Christian... The Christian right may not vote for Biden, but some might just stay home...

How does someone like Vivek convince the center-left votes that Trump needs in crucial swing states (and I believe doesn't currently have) to go in their favor? As someone who isn't religious, being told that I need to believe that a God is real seems quite divisive. I said in my only other post on the this forum that I could never vote for someone who commands me to do anything.

In my eyes, Vivek is as polarizing as Lake and MTG are in the sense that they they've all reached a threshold that would make it difficult to ever consider voting for them.

Noem isn't convincing many centrists to vote Trump... just gonna tell you that now. She's every bit as divisive in the eyes of someone looking outside in at the conservative party.

It's not going to happen... but Trump would probably win if Haley was made his VP. She would be a neutralizing force in the face of Trump's behavior that drives people away. You're speaking to someone who is far from convinced by Biden and watched the debates... Haley was the only one that came off as somewhat voteable.