Post Debate Polls with Trump vs. Biden and vs. Replacements

[bpj]

Joe vs Michelle.jpg

[seattlefan-daBronx]

Mr. Burns.jpg (54.78 KiB) Viewed 207 times

[maoling]

Wow. That last time I heard a rant like this, Nixon said he was not a crook.

And this on Morning Joe.

https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/r ... &FORM=VIRE

You know who he reminded me of after hearing him today?

Captain Queeg when he melted down in The Caine Mutiny.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KekChFdIe00

[maoling]

He can sound mostly rational with a teleprompter or notes or off-camera for about eight minutes wherever he goes, but after that he becomes a senile geezer loon. After listening to all 18 minutes of this on Morning Joe, how can this guy not be done?

Of course, leading Dems have now scurried away from him ("Where's Chuck and Nancy? The Squad?), he is being eroded at his base and the media have finally turned on him. Hollywood is cutting off his funding. Rob Reiner says step down lol. Clintons and Obamas have vanished.

Hunter is now Martin Bormann at the White House. You can't make this shit up.

[D-train]

First polls with the shooting fully baked in:

Screenshot 2024-07-18 5.59.55 AM.png (121.05 KiB) Viewed 170 times

[Donn Beach]

This guy develops predictive models based on betting rather than polling

The polls rely on much smaller samples than on PredictIT,” says Miller. “They typically survey only 500 to 1,500. There’s no consistency in the people who are polled. The pollsters are all using different groups of likely voters. They’re are also using different methods, so there’s no single way of analyzing their data. By contrast, tens of thousands are voting with their dollars on PredictIT. If they’re right, they turn 57 cents into a dollar. It’s a substantial return on investment. The participants are motivated to stay in the market until the election’s over to get the payoff, so there’s a consistency to the group of investors who are setting the prices.”

That PredictIT is open 24/7 is another plus. “Hence, at any time you can sell your shares,” Miller continues. “If things aren’t going well for the Democrats, you sell the Democrat shares and buy Republican shares. The investors are always [saying], ‘I’ve got a take on what will happen on November 5, and I want to make money on it.’ Tens of thousands of participants are expressing their opinion for the outcome with their bets.” The bettors gather to form a political marketplace that resembles an exchange where investors use their best information to predict future prices for stocks, bonds, or commodities.

From now until Election Day, Miller is posting the projected electoral vote (EV) totals for the two candidates in real time; he updates the numbers shortly after the PredictIT prices change, on his website the Virtual Tout. As of 11 a.m. on Oct. 2, Miller has Harris-Walz leading Trump-Vance by 302 to 236, a substantial bulge of 66 electoral votes. The ill tidings for Republicans: The Harris ticket has been well ahead ever since the Harris-Trump debate three week ago, and bettors are displaying a low tendency to change their minds.

https://fortune.com/2024/10/03/kamala-h ... ng-states/

Here's the site
https://virtualtout.com/