A lengthy article I wrote examining some trades.

[Seattle or Bust]

We might as well get it out of the way now. The Mariners are not going to be big players in free agency. Shocking - I know. Delusions of acquiring Christian Walker, Willy Adames, and Juan Soto are just that - deluded.

Mariners President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto has said that payroll will go up, but we’ve seen this song and dance before. In ‘24, we saw only a marginal increase due to alleged financial challenges and the front office is already setting fans up for more of the same with widespread reporting that payroll will mostly be increased by rising arbitration numbers in the club’s young, controlled players.

In a recent podcast, Mariners insider and beat writer for The Seattle Times Ryan Divish posited that the M’s will have to lean on trades to move cash and add talent in an effort to stay within existing payroll restrictions. The M’s have leaned on this strategy heavily in recent years, resulting mostly in failed production in players like Jesse Winker and Jorge Polanco who were making modest money with limited remaining team control.

The M’s will again have to enact this strategy and hope they do not perform the usual swing and miss if they intend on finally taking the AL West after a 24-year drought. Here are five realistic trades the M’s could look to make this off-season:

Trade 1: The Mariners send OF Mitch Haniger and 1B Tyler Locklear to the Chicago White Sox for 1B Andrew Vaughn

If the M’s intend on adding talent, they have to figure out a way to get out from under the contract of Mitch Haniger. The $15.5 million player option Haniger picked up earlier this month is a massive hindrance for a team with budget restrictions. And no, they M’s are not going to DFA him and simply eat the money. Last year, the M’s packaged promising outfielder Jarred Kelenic alongside fallen prospect Evan White and starting pitcher Marco Gonzales to the Braves in an effort to save cash. This trade follows that line of thinking.

Teams like the White Sox or Marlins who are entering full rebuilds could possibly afford to take on some bad, short-term contracts if it means adding players to build a strong farm system in return. In this trade, the White Sox do just that, accepting a package of Haniger and promising first base prospect Tyler Locklear for first basemen Andrew Vaughn, a former top prospect himself.

Vaughn, the no. 3 overall pick in the 2019 MLB draft, has never quite lived up to his pedigree but has put together promising power numbers with the bat in bad lineups featuring minimal protection. He has put up at least 15 home runs in each of his first four seasons and 30 doubles the last two seasons all while sporting a career .252 batting average. At just 26 years old, there’s still room for the bat to blossom and for cratering defense to improve. Vaughn would platoon with Luke Raley at first base, DH, and primarily hit against lefties who he has crushed over his career.

Vaughn is controlled over the next two seasons and is owed $4.4 million in ‘25. The move saves the M’s $11+ million in ‘25, allowing for more payroll flexibility at the expense of moving Locklear.

Trade 2: The Mariners send OF Dom Canzone, IF Ben Williamson, SP Brandyn Garcia to the Tampa Bay Rays for 2B Brandon Lowe

Second base has been the biggest black hole for the M’s positionally since they traded Robinson Cano in 2019. Abraham Toro, Adam Frazier, Kolten Wong, and Jorge Polanco - the horror. The position will be a major priority this off season and this trade attempts to solve what has been a long-term problem.

In the trade, the M’s acquire veteran second baseman Brandon Lowe for a trio of young, controlled players. Lowe has long been rumored as a favorite target by the M’s but the Rays haven’t yet budged on trading him. MLB insider Jeff Passan recently reported that the Rays would make Lowe, alongside other aging veterans, available as they head for a small reset themselves.

Lowe is as much of a boom-or-bust candidate as they come. He has a long injury history and has only played over 109 games once in his 7-year career. But when healthy, the boom has been there. Lowe is a career .812 OPS, 125 OPS+ bat. In ‘21, he hit 39 home runs and his home run rate over 162 games was 31 in both ‘23 and ‘24. That is elite power production for a middle infielder making a modest salary. He’s owed a modest $10.5 million in ‘25 and has a club option for $11.5 million in ‘26 making him very affordable.

Returning to the Rays are a bevy of traits-based talent that the Rays tend to covet. We know the Rays like these kinds of players as they traded outfielder Randy Arozarena to the M’s last year for high-upside prospects Aidan Smith and Brody Hopkins who were not among the M’s top-10 prospects. Canzone slots immediately into a Rays outfield that was among the worst in baseball. Williamson gives the Rays one of the better infield gloves in the minors. Garcia flashes elite power stuff from the left side in a farm system that sorely lacks starting pitching options.

Trade 3: The Mariners send SP Luis Castillo, 1B Tyler Locklear to the Boston Red Sox for 1B Triston Casas

If the M’s want to increase payroll flexibility, one way to do that is offloading Castillo’s $24 million in ‘25 and the remainder of a contract that may not age well if trends continue. Make no mistake, Castillo was still solid in ‘24, but the talented righty produced just 2.3 fWAR and 1.8 bWAR. This was his worst WAR production since 2018, his first full season in the league. His velocity and command were noticeably down, potentially making it time to trade him to a big market team in need of pitching.

The trade sends a promising, young first baseman back to the M’s in exchange for Castillo and a quality 1B of their own. Casas has not yet tapped into his potential but he has the makings of a Matt Olson-type with the bat. At just 24 years old, the 6’5” lefty sports a career .830 OPS and hung 24 homers over 132 games at just 22 years old. He has the potential to be a 40+ homer hitter who also walks at an elite clip. Casas is just now hitting arbitration meaning that he’ll be controlled cheaply for the next few years.

The Red Sox are said to be looking to move slugger Rafael Devers off of third base which could result in a move to first, leaving Casas positionless. The Sox are also rumored to want to create a bit more balance in a lineup that features a lot of lefty bats. They are also desperately in need of a front-line starter and can afford to take on Castillo’s hefty contract. Locklear gives them a right-handed replacement option at DH and 1B who they can develop.

Trade 4: The Mariners send 3B/Util Josh Rojas, C Harry Ford to the Philadelphia Phillies for 3B Alec Bohm, SP Mick Abel

This trade will likely upset some M’s fans who are clinging to top-prospect Harry Ford’s potential. While just 21 years old in Double A, Ford continued to show elite discipline at the plate but the power numbers simply are not there. In ‘24, Ford hit just 7 homers across 116 games, good for a poultry .367 slugging %. He’s blocked for at least the next 3 seasons at catcher, which is really the only position that makes him valuable given the power outage in his bat. The M’s are in desperate need for an upgrade at third base and moving Ford could be the ticket in getting that done.

Bohm is a bit of an enigma thus far in his career. A once top-40 prospect in baseball, Bohm finally tapped into a bit of his potential with a 3-WAR season where he slashed .280/.332/.448/.779 with 15 homers and 97 RBI’s across 143 games. At just 27 years old, one might wonder if Bohm is finally tapping into being a perennial 3+ win player who plays solid D and hits for high batting averages with passing power.

In the trade, the M’s send third baseman Josh Rojas back to Philli, alongside Ford, in exchange for Bohm and former top pitching prospect Mick Abel. The Phillies could use Rojas as a platoon utility man in their infield after saying goodbye to infielder Whit Merrifield who was terrible in ‘24. Ford gives the Phillies an immediate replacement at catcher as JT Realmuto is a free agent following the ‘25 season. Abel was the second-rated prospect in the Phillies organization and top-50 prospect heading into last season, but he posted absolutely horrific numbers and has fallen from grace due to issues with command and arm slot. Perhaps the M’s can work some magic with him with their stellar pitching development machine.

Trade 5: The Mariners send SP Bryan Woo, OF Mitch Haniger to the New York Mets for 3B Mark Vientos

Say it ain’t so? Trading Woo and attaching Haniger to create payroll flexibility? It might just have to happen. The Mets are one of the few teams who can acquire Haniger and DFA him on the spot if it means they’ve improved a weakness. They have a number of starters hitting free agency and need to fill out their rotation. Woo would be a good start.

Vientos is no consolation prize. The 25-year-old third baseman enjoyed a stellar ‘24 where he hung a stellar 2.9 fWAR and 3.1 bWAR over just 111 games. Vientos slashed .266/.322/.516/.837 with 27 home runs. Over 162 games that projects to about 40 home runs - incredible production for such a young player. Vientos has to improve some on the swing and miss, but the overall contact metrics are elite.

In completing this trade, the M’s would have to be in on Roki Sasaki or perhaps a stop gap in someone like Erik Fedde from the Cardinals who are making all veterans available. Losing Woo hurts, but he’s perhaps the most expendable of the young starters given his injury history and lack of development among his secondary pitches.

[GL_Storm]

An idea I really liked in this write up was getting Mick Abel as a throw-in with Alec Baum. The dude is 6'5" with three or four plus pitches but no command. Maybe you can fix the command issues and make him a major league starter, and that would be great. Or, you strip down his repertoire and turn him into a reliever, and maybe you've got a monster.

[Bil522]

Bohm is a bust. He is a typical M's target....was good for half a year somewhere else which translates so well into hitting at T-mobile. How about going with guys that have solid hitting numbers for multiple seasons so they might have a chance of hitting here?

[D-train]

I think Locklear value tanked hard the second half. Not only due to his horrid cup O coffee MLB debut but he only hit 8 HRs in over 300 PAs in the hitter's paradise that is the PCL. I don't think the White Sox give us $15M AND Vaughn for him..

I like the Phillies trade better but I cut see Bohm struggling at T Mobile.

[D-train]

Could probably do Woo for Vientos straight up. Woo's value is $50M and Vientos is $40M. Maybe they could send us a reliever as well, but I doubt they throw in $15M for Haniger.

[GL_Storm]

I think Locklear value tanked hard the second half. Not only due to his horrid cup O coffee MLB debut but he only hit 8 HRs in over 300 PAs in the hitter's paradise that is the PCL. I don't think the White Sox give us $15M AND Vaughn for him..

I like the Phillies trade better but I cut see Bohm struggling at T Mobile.

Locklear didn't fall apart at Tacoma, but the PCL has a lot more veteran pitchers with better command than AA pitchers, and often more well rounded repertoires, especially offspeed, and so I'm not surprised there was a dropoff in his performance.

[D-train]

JK had a .941 OPS in Tacoma and we all know how that worked out. Locklear had a .801 OPS. I think you nailed it on him when you pointed out the issues with his swing.

[Seattle or Bust]

JK had a .941 OPS in Tacoma and we all know how that worked out. Locklear had a .801 OPS. I think you nailed it on him when you pointed out the issues with his swing.

8 homers in 41 AB's at Arkansas is pretty impressive considering the park's reputation.

I like Locklear, I just don't think the M's are in the position to wait a couple years for him to reach his potential.

[D-train]

JK had a .941 OPS in Tacoma and we all know how that worked out. Locklear had a .801 OPS. I think you nailed it on him when you pointed out the issues with his swing.

8 homers in 41 AB's at Arkansas is pretty impressive considering the park's reputation.

I like Locklear, I just don't think the M's are in the position to wait a couple years for him to reach his potential.

41 games. His .933 OPS at AA was very impressive. Only Julio had a higher one since Ark has been our AA team. His .801 at Tacoma was not.

His .536 OPS in Seattle was a SSS but he was totally overmatched and had over a 40% K rate.

[D-train]

Jude looks at 2B. Lists our internal options and then says there is no need to rush Cole Young. lol Says Hoerner is a great option IF we can afford his massive $11.5M salary. Says 30 yo Lowe who is making $10.5M is too old and too expensive. Wtf???

Adam Jude
Seattle Times staff reporter
Losing track of all the names shuffling through the revolving door at second base for the Seattle Mariners? You’re not alone.

For the eighth straight season, the Mariners are expected to have a new opening day second baseman in 2025.

Last winter, the Mariners traded for veteran switch-hitter Jorge Polanco, but injuries limited him to 118 games in what was the worst season of his career. The Mariners declined his $12 million option earlier this month, making him a free agent.

Where do they turn now?

Mariners position breakdowns
J.P. Crawford retires Chicago’s Nicky Lopez for the first out of the ninth. The Chicago White Sox played the Seattle Mariners Tuesday, June 11, 2024 at T-Mobile Park, in Seattle, WA. 227060
OF: Is 2025 outfield already set?
3B: Will Mariners change things up at third base?
SS: Can J.P. Crawford return to form at shortstop?

Jerry Dipoto, president of baseball operations, said the Mariners would like to add two infielders this offseason — players who can fill some combination of first base, second base and/or third base.

The Mariners, again, have signaled that they don’t plan to be active in the market for high-end free agents. You can cross Alex Bregman and Willy Adames off your wishlist.

They do have internal options to play second base.

If they find a new third baseman, the Mariners could employ a platoon of Josh Rojas and Dylan Moore at second. As things stand, Rojas and Moore are more likely to open next season in a job share at third.

Rookies Ryan Bliss and Leo Rivas made their major-league debuts with the Mariners this year. In limited at-bats, they showed some encouraging signs, but there are still questions about their ability to hit big-league pitching.

One of their top prospects, 21-year-old Cole Young, could eventually provide long-sought stability at second base.

Young had a productive year in Class-AA Arkansas, with a .271/.369/.390 (.759 OPS), nine homers, 25 doubles and 23 steals. Those numbers might not pop but consider that he was one of the younger players in Class AA and he played in a pitcher-friendly park.


Young is right on track in his development, and the Mariners have said they will be patient with him. That in mind, the Mariners plan to have Young play in Triple-A for a full season in 2025 — no need to rush him — in hopes that he’ll be ready to make the leap to the big leagues in 2026.

Until then, they’ll need a stopgap option next season.

Depth chart
MLB: Dylan Moore, Josh Rojas, Leo Rivas
Triple-A Tacoma: Ryan Bliss, Samad Taylor
Double-A Arkansas: Cole Young, Brock Rodden
High-A Everett: Michael Arroyo
Low-A Modesto: Charlie Pagliarini

Key number: .633 — Since the start of the 2019 season, Mariners second basemen have the second-worst OPS (.633) among the 30 MLB teams. Only the Chicago White Sox (.626) have a lower OPS. Over the past six seasons, the M’s rank last in batting average (.222) and 25th in wRC+ (82) at the position.

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Key offseason question: Can the Mariners find someone to settle in at second base?

Key quote: “Jorge [Polanco] has not had a great year. He’s a good player who’s had a magnificent career, and I think he’s going to be a good player moving forward. I could say the same about others that we’ve had through the years who are no longer playing with us, who similarly came here and struggled.” — Jerry Dipoto

Overview
The presence of Moore and Rojas gives the Mariners some pliability in free agency and on the trade market. A few ideas:

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Six trade candidates
Alec Bohm, 3B, Phillies: A torrid start to the 2024 season helped the 27-year-old earn his first All-Star bid, but Bohm was a below-average hitter in the season’s second half (.681 OPS) and his maturity has come into question. He is also projected to make about $8 million for 2025, which on top of the acquisition cost (the Mariners would have to trade away something real) could price him out of Seattle’s budget, unless the Phillies were willing to take on one of the Mariners’ big contracts.

Verdict: A right-handed bat with middling power and a rising salary? Not a good profile for the Mariners or T-Mobile Park.

Nico Hoerner, 2B, Cubs: Maybe the best overall player on this list, Hoerner has been worth 13 bWAR combined over the past three seasons. He’s a Gold Glove winner with elite speed, offsetting an average hitting profile (career OPS+ of 100, right at league average). He’s due for a significant salary increase ($11.5 million) entering his age-28 season in 2025, and the Cubs figure to put a high price tag on him in trade talks, too.

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Verdict: A great option … if the Mariners can afford him.

Brandon Lowe, 2B, Rays: We’ve mentioned Lowe here before. He’s a proven veteran with good pop from the left side, and he could be a nice upgrade from what the Mariners have had at second base. And we know how much the Mariners and Rays like to make trades. But the 30-year-old’s $10.5 million salary is steep, and his injury history is a real concern. Feels like Polanco Part II.

Verdict: Too old. Too expensive.

Gavin Lux, 2B, Dodgers: Once a much-hyped prospect — years ago, the Dodgers reportedly refused to include him in trade talks with Cleveland for Francisco Lindor — Lux hasn’t lived up to the billing. A torn ACL wiped out his 2023 season; he had an up-and-down season in his return this year, and was the regular second baseman (with a 2.1 bWAR) in the Dodgers’ World Series run this year. The Dodgers plan to move Mookie Betts back to the infield for 2025, which could push Lux out of a job. He’ll be just 27 next season.

Verdict: An intriguing option worth exploring for the Mariners.

Brendan Rodgers, 2B, Rockies: The Mariners checked in on Rodgers’ availability in the past and the Rockies’ asking price at the time was deemed to be unrealistically high. The Rockies are now reportedly open to trading Rodgers, who enters his final season of club control projected to make more than $5 million in 2025. Rodgers was a 4.3 WAR player in 2022, but he hasn’t come close to repeating that, and teams should always be wary of any player leaving Denver’s Coors Field.

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Verdict: Hard pass.

Brendan Donovan, 2B/LF, Cardinals: This just makes too much sense for the Mariners. Donovan is a versatile left-handed hitter with good on-base skills (career slash line: .280/.364/.407) … he’s in his prime (he’ll be 28 next season) … and he’s affordable (projected to make $3.6 million in arbitration). The Cardinals need pitching and the Mariners could offer a package around young right-handers Emerson Hancock and Michael Morales. Feels like a win-win. (Another Cardinals second baseman worth asking about: Nolan Gorman, a former top prospect who fell out of favor in St. Louis this year.)

Verdict: Do it. Donovan is exactly what the Mariners need.

Four free-agent targets
Ha-Seong Kim: The 29-year-old former San Diego Padres infielder is “one of the biggest risk-reward plays of this year’s free agent class,” as MLB Trade Rumors wrote. Kim injured his shoulder in August and had season-ending surgery to repair his labrum, and his availability for opening day next spring is up in the air. Represented by mega-agent Scott Boras, Kim became the first Asian-born infielder to win an MLB Gold Glove in 2023, and he might have commanded a free-agent deal in excess of $100 million if healthy. It’s been suggested he could be open to a one-year “pillow” contract and reenter free agency next year. Would he consider that kind of deal with Seattle?

Hye-Seong Kim: The Mariners have done their due diligence on the Korean second baseman. Hye-Seong Kim, who turns 26 in January, is considered a strong defensive player with good contact skills and speed. He was a teammate of Ha-Seong Kim (no relation) with the KBO’s Kiwoom Heroes, who are set to post Hye-Seong Kim this winter. MLB Trade Rumors predicts he could sign for $24 million over three years, which should make him an affordable option in Seattle.

Gleyber Torres: A former top prospect, Torres hits the open market ahead of his age-28 season. He was barely a league-average hitter (104 wRC+) while playing half his games at Yankee Stadium this year (and he’s a poor defender). His profile does not suggest he’s a good fit for T-Mobile Park, and his projected contract (two years, $36 million via MLB Trade Rumors) is probably too rich for the Mariners anyway.

Yoan Moncada: Another former top prospect, Moncada was mostly a disappointment with the Chicago White Sox over the past three injury-riddled seasons. The 29-year-old could be a decent buy-low reclamation project.