So it begins, The official Hot Stove League Thread 2024-25 Offseason

[bpj]

Here is Jose Abreu and Christian Walker in the three seasons before the Astros signed them-

They have completely different body types and swings. What evidence is there to say that Walker will follow Abreu's trajectory? I could just as easily put up a comparison of Nelson Cruz who came to the M's at age 34 with an 91 HR, and an OPS of OPS of .826 in the previous 3 seasons.

Could just as easily use Richie Sexson who was out of baseball by the age Christian Walker is now.

Nelson Cruz had numbers that improved every year leading up to the Mariners getting him.

Walker has been fairly consistent over the last few years. But his K% went from 19% to 24% this year and he barely broke an .800 OPS.

I wouldn't bet a penny on the UP scenario for Walker personally.

[GL_Storm]

And as I mentioned they will happen earlier and earlier....turning 30 will be a death sentence.

The point I was trying to make is why are you giving a three year contract to a guy who's data indicate he's in decline? That kinda blows my mind. Isn't that the point of having the data? Why would a super data driven outfit Like the Astros ignore it?

Maybe the guy is washed up, maybe the Astros paid too much, but by God, at least they are trying to get better.

By trading Kyle Tucker?

[Pharmabro]

I saw an interesting trade Idea on Locked On's Fan fiction Friday:

I mean on the one hand part of me wants to say too much from the M's:

4 top 100's and Garver for guys that aren't great right now:

1B: Yandy Diaz started cold and then heated up to salvage an OK season. MLB trade calc has him at 23.2M, he is owed 10M in 2025 and 12M (Option) in 2026 for ages 31 and 32
2024 145 games 1.6BWAR 116 OPS+ 65 RBI

2B Brandon Lowe MLB trade calc 13.7M
2024: 107 games 2.4 WAR 121 OPS+

Closer/set-up Pete Fairbanks 10.3M trade calc // He is owed 3&2/3rds - 4M in 2025 and then 7M or 1M buyout
2024 113 ERA+ peripherals are trending the wrong way.

I'd be up for it if they switched out Garver and put in Haniger. You'd have Raley as your primary DH, Backup OF DH. And Shenton LH/ Moore RH 3B platoon with no other additions.

The three incoming would add 24-25M and with Haniger's -17.5M the net would be plus 7.5M for just 2025

[Vogelbomb]

We're going to give up our top two young arms, two more 1st rd middle infield prospects and Tyler Locklear for the pleasure of having Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe? Lowe couldn't hold Cole Young's jock strap!

We should never be in a rush to give up young talent for mid-tier, ho-hum players. Fairbanks is fine but he's a reliever. We have good young relief arms. I'd rather just sign an elite reliever like Tanner Scott, Kenley or Sewald

[Vogelbomb]

Our top 15 Prospects. It is deep but none of our guys project as All Stars other than Laz imo and maybe Celestin if he can stay healthy.

https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/ ... prospects/

A little too pessimistic DT. Colt Emerson is a stud. He'll add some strength here over the next 4 years and start slugging some bombs by 23, 24. Cole Young is the same for me. Celesten -- I just can't wait to see a full season from this young man. And Laz and don't forget Arroyo, that kid is so overlooked. I think there's plenty of big game potential here. Obviously they all have to keep on keeping on, but they have the talent.

Jonny Farmelo, too, this dude is going to be unreal. Let's hope he can play on fields without dead spots and holes in the outfield. Jfc

[bpj]

Our top 15 Prospects. It is deep but none of our guys project as All Stars other than Laz imo and maybe Celestin if he can stay healthy.

https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/ ... prospects/

A little too pessimistic DT. Colt Emerson is a stud. He'll add some strength here over the next 4 years and start slugging some bombs by 23, 24. Cole Young is the same for me. Celesten -- I just can't wait to see a full season from this young man. And Laz and don't forget Arroyo, that kid is so overlooked. I think there's plenty of big game potential here. Obviously they all have to keep on keeping on, but they have the talent.

Jonny Farmelo, too, this dude is going to be unreal. Let's hope he can play on fields without dead spots and holes in the outfield. Jfc

Are you still waiting for Kelenic's big breahthrough?

[D-train]

Our top 15 Prospects. It is deep but none of our guys project as All Stars other than Laz imo and maybe Celestin if he can stay healthy.

https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/ ... prospects/

A little too pessimistic DT. Colt Emerson is a stud. He'll add some strength here over the next 4 years and start slugging some bombs by 23, 24. Cole Young is the same for me. Celesten -- I just can't wait to see a full season from this young man. And Laz and don't forget Arroyo, that kid is so overlooked. I think there's plenty of big game potential here. Obviously they all have to keep on keeping on, but they have the talent.

Jonny Farmelo, too, this dude is going to be unreal. Let's hope he can play on fields without dead spots and holes in the outfield. Jfc

I found a good comp for Colt. Bobby Whit Jr. hit 1 HR in 180 PAs as a 19 yo. They are about the same size. The rest is history. How's that for optimism?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/regi ... tt--005rob

[D-train]

Our top 15 Prospects. It is deep but none of our guys project as All Stars other than Laz imo and maybe Celestin if he can stay healthy.

https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/ ... prospects/

A little too pessimistic DT. Colt Emerson is a stud. He'll add some strength here over the next 4 years and start slugging some bombs by 23, 24. Cole Young is the same for me. Celesten -- I just can't wait to see a full season from this young man. And Laz and don't forget Arroyo, that kid is so overlooked. I think there's plenty of big game potential here. Obviously they all have to keep on keeping on, but they have the talent.

Jonny Farmelo, too, this dude is going to be unreal. Let's hope he can play on fields without dead spots and holes in the outfield. Jfc

Good points on Farmelo and Arroyo. Looking forward to their 2025.

[D-train]

Our top 15 Prospects. It is deep but none of our guys project as All Stars other than Laz imo and maybe Celestin if he can stay healthy.

https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/ ... prospects/

A little too pessimistic DT. Colt Emerson is a stud. He'll add some strength here over the next 4 years and start slugging some bombs by 23, 24. Cole Young is the same for me. Celesten -- I just can't wait to see a full season from this young man. And Laz and don't forget Arroyo, that kid is so overlooked. I think there's plenty of big game potential here. Obviously they all have to keep on keeping on, but they have the talent.

Jonny Farmelo, too, this dude is going to be unreal. Let's hope he can play on fields without dead spots and holes in the outfield. Jfc

Are you still waiting for Kelenic's big breahthrough?

He is only 21, 22, 23, 24.........25!!!

[bhofferb]

A little too pessimistic DT. Colt Emerson is a stud. He'll add some strength here over the next 4 years and start slugging some bombs by 23, 24. Cole Young is the same for me. Celesten -- I just can't wait to see a full season from this young man. And Laz and don't forget Arroyo, that kid is so overlooked. I think there's plenty of big game potential here. Obviously they all have to keep on keeping on, but they have the talent.

Jonny Farmelo, too, this dude is going to be unreal. Let's hope he can play on fields without dead spots and holes in the outfield. Jfc

Are you still waiting for Kelenic's big breahthrough?

He is only 21, 22, 23, 24.........25!!!

And by the time he's 25 most of our current starters will be wearing pinstripes or Dodger blue. Sustainability is nice, but roght now the M's need to be filling holes with proven MLB talent to take advantage of the brst young pitching staff since the 80''s era Braves