Thread for draft simulations:

[Donn Beach]

I tried a best player available (based on PFN rankings) approach to the draft and the first 4 times i picked the best available player was a Safety lol. I ended up with 4 safeties, three RBs, and two DTs.

What if you traded down when the best player available wasn't a player you wanted?

Obviously one shouldn't expect to get a balanced group of players by drafting solely by BPA, but i was still surprised that for each of the Seahawks' first four picks a safety was the highest ranked player left on the board. That seems to indicate something about the algorithm, such as random devaluation of a position group. Also, how does a player (like Judkins) who is ranked 61st in the draft simulation go well into the 100s becore being drafted? Even in a model that balences BPA with need that seems bizarre. In the real world we'll see players fall but that's almost always due to some event (e.g. criminal act) occuring shortly before the draft that casts doubt on their character or mental state. But, given that when i had the simulator do a complete draft by itself, it seemed to draft with little regard to need i don't know why players would drop so far or certain position groups would be ignored early.

Here's two articles that argue opposite views on BPA vs need in NFL drafting...

https://www.fantasylabs.com/articles/wh ... -strategy/

https://www.hogshaven.com/2019/4/7/1811 ... l-redskins

I think the talent is really pretty flat. It doesn't rank the way we would like it to. It's pretty much impossible to identify a player as the BPA at any particular selection. For practical purposes it comes down to need. Remember JS commented he drafts to his team, not the league, which I interpret as drafting to need. I don't know if this still applies. There are exceptions, when there's clearly a significant player available which isn't needful, That's a reason to trade down. And that's going to probably be a function of another team's need. I'd say this applies to QBs most often, a BPA situation

[Donn Beach]

You're obsession with Edge guys is somewhat disturbing.

No doubt. It wasn’t a good draft. Again, I traded back way too much. And probably over reacted to the success the Rams had with their Rookie Edge. I’m not sure getting three stud defenders from Big Ten defenses is a bad thing though.

As for Seattle's "perfect" draft pick, PFF went with Marshall edge rusher Mike Green. "Mike Macdonald is the perfect defensive mind to maximize Green’s sky-high potential," wrote Cameron

[Donn Beach]

This is JS

"Everybody's on this constant quest for offensive linemen and developing offensive linemen," he said. "We just saw what happened in the Super Bowl for crying out loud. [The Chiefs] are playing for a world championship, and things didn't go well. … The offensive line, there's always like this dearth of talent at the position. So, it's supply and demand

[Donn Beach]

Haynes could benefit from the kubiak hiring

Haynes has listed brute strength (or rather, the lack thereof) as a problem in his adaptation. The zone scheme is more focused on agility and blocking angles, a facet that Haynes dominated in college. You can question the level of competition in his 1v1 matchups, but in my opinion Haynes’ greatest strength is his spatial intelligence and anticipation for blocks, and this is something less dependent on the competition.

It would be fantastic if Kubiak/Benton could recover that third-rounder spent on Christian Haynes.

https://www.fieldgulls.com/2025/2/18/24 ... ohn-benton

[Sibelius Hindemith]

That may help him with run blocking, but his pass blocking was equally bad according to PFF so i wouldn't expect too much. Unless his problems were caused by confusion with blocking responsibilities due to poor coaching by Huff or being slow to adjust to NFL defensive schemes. We'll see, i'm not too optimistic.

[Sibelius Hindemith]

What if you traded down when the best player available wasn't a player you wanted?

Obviously one shouldn't expect to get a balanced group of players by drafting solely by BPA, but i was still surprised that for each of the Seahawks' first four picks a safety was the highest ranked player left on the board. That seems to indicate something about the algorithm, such as random devaluation of a position group. Also, how does a player (like Judkins) who is ranked 61st in the draft simulation go well into the 100s becore being drafted? Even in a model that balences BPA with need that seems bizarre. In the real world we'll see players fall but that's almost always due to some event (e.g. criminal act) occuring shortly before the draft that casts doubt on their character or mental state. But, given that when i had the simulator do a complete draft by itself, it seemed to draft with little regard to need i don't know why players would drop so far or certain position groups would be ignored early.

Here's two articles that argue opposite views on BPA vs need in NFL drafting...

https://www.fantasylabs.com/articles/wh ... -strategy/

https://www.hogshaven.com/2019/4/7/1811 ... l-redskins

I think the talent is really pretty flat. It doesn't rank the way we would like it to. It's pretty much impossible to identify a player as the BPA at any particular selection. For practical purposes it comes down to need. Remember JS commented he drafts to his team, not the league, which I interpret as drafting to need. I don't know if this still applies. There are exceptions, when there's clearly a significant player available which isn't needful, That's a reason to trade down. And that's going to probably be a function of another team's need. I'd say this applies to QBs most often, a BPA situation

I agree, that is similar to the view of the guy in the 1st article i linked to. The 2nd guy says you should always take the best player available in the early rounds, and then choose by need within groupings (bands) of similarly ranked players in later rounds.

[D-train]

Stop drafting guys that played against D Lineman who played for Sacred Heart. UCONN last to Tennessee 59-3 his last season there. Guessing Haynes got destroyed that game.

[Gametime]

Stop drafting guys that played against D Lineman who played for Sacred Heart. UCONN last to Tennessee 59-3 his last season there. Guessing Haynes got destroyed that game.

How about hiring new Oline evaluators. Or John, how about pick your oline to draft and then do the opposite. You would have to be better.

Olu, Bradford, Hayes, Haynes, Lewis, Abe, Stone, Cross, Laumea, Jerrel.

We need a different evaluator for oline.

[Donn Beach]

I think it's probably more the rounds you draft in, offensive line talent is hard to project. Drafting it in the middle rounds makes it even more speculative

[Sibelius Hindemith]

Let's see your simulation Donnie me lad.