Cal vs. Judge for MVP

User avatar
D-train
Posts: 77069
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:33 am
Location: Quincy, MA

Cal vs. Judge for MVP

Post by D-train » Wed Sep 17, 2025 4:09 pm

Cal trails Judge by .4 fWAR. That gap is EASILY made up when you consider that Cal has 8 more HRs and 15 more RBIs and most importantly has to manage the entire pitching staff. Something that is not captured by WAR.
Screenshot 2025-09-17 090817.png
dt

DavidGee24
Posts: 9731
Joined: Wed May 01, 2019 6:24 pm
Location: Phillips Ranch, CA

Re: Cal vs. Judge for MVP

Post by DavidGee24 » Wed Sep 17, 2025 4:24 pm

And that Judge is even slightly ahead in WAR is irrelevant when you consider the advanced degree of difficulty there is for a catcher to do that. Yogi Berra and Roy Campanella each won three MVPs despite not really being even close to leading the league in WAR those years. In fact, the only two catchers to ever lead the league in WAR were Johnny Bench in 1972 and Buster Posey in 2012, both winning the MVP.

Also, if Cal weren't DHing which is a deflater he would be leading the league in WAR. Neither Bench nor Posey DH'd and had to catch almost 150 games.

Michael K.
Posts: 13296
Joined: Wed May 01, 2019 5:27 am

Re: Cal vs. Judge for MVP

Post by Michael K. » Wed Sep 17, 2025 5:17 pm

DavidGee24 wrote:
Wed Sep 17, 2025 4:24 pm
And that Judge is even slightly ahead in WAR is irrelevant when you consider the advanced degree of difficulty there is for a catcher to do that. Yogi Berra and Roy Campanella each won three MVPs despite not really being even close to leading the league in WAR those years. In fact, the only two catchers to ever lead the league in WAR were Johnny Bench in 1972 and Buster Posey in 2012, both winning the MVP.

Also, if Cal weren't DHing which is a deflater he would be leading the league in WAR. Neither Bench nor Posey DH'd and had to catch almost 150 games.
We all see that. But how many voters are going to look at the large discrepancy in AVG, Slugging, OB and OPS?

I am also no baseball stat head. But this link has Judge at 8.4 WAR and Cal at 6.5

https://stathead.com/baseball/versus-fi ... dge-001aar

But, more importantly...since I think WAR is fucking dumb as shit. 27 more hits, 79 points higher in AVG, 90 points higher in OBP, 86 points higher in SLG and and OPS of 1.127 compared to .951? OPS + of 209 compared to 169?

All of those stats are quoted around here all the time. Again, I have no clue why the WAR stat I found is different than DTs, but those other numbers jump out at me. 8 players in all of baseball hitting over .300, and no one has a higher average than Judge. He is also second in Walks and 4th in HRs.

His .326 AVG is 9 points higher than the second best in baseball.
His .451 OBP is 56 points higher than the second best in baseball.
His .676 Slg is 65 points higher than the second best in baseball.
His 1.127 makes him one of only two players with an OPS over 1, and his is .121 higher than Ohtani, who is second best.

If Judge was a Mariner we'd be saying it's a no brainer. I'm afraid it is. Judge is having an other worldly season.

User avatar
D-train
Posts: 77069
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:33 am
Location: Quincy, MA

Re: Cal vs. Judge for MVP

Post by D-train » Wed Sep 17, 2025 5:27 pm

That is bWAR from Baseball reference, generally considered to be inferior to fWAR which is Fangraphs.
fWAR (FanGraphs WAR)
Pitching: Calculates pitcher value using Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which focuses on strikeouts, walks, and home runs, rather than actual runs allowed.
Defense: Employs Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) and Statcast data to measure defensive value.
Other Factors: Includes pitch framing data for catchers, which contributes to a player's overall defensive value.
General Perception: Often viewed as a better predictor of future performance due to its emphasis on peripheral stats.
bWAR (Baseball-Reference WAR)
Pitching: Uses actual runs allowed per nine innings (RA/9) and adjusts for park and the quality of defense behind the pitcher.
Defense: Utilizes Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), a metric that uses human inputs to evaluate defensive performance.
Other Factors: Does not include pitch framing data, which makes it a more consistent metric for historical comparisons of catchers.
General Perception: Considered a reliable indicator of past performance and the overall results a pitcher or team achieved.
dt

Michael K.
Posts: 13296
Joined: Wed May 01, 2019 5:27 am

Re: Cal vs. Judge for MVP

Post by Michael K. » Wed Sep 17, 2025 5:42 pm

D-train wrote:
Wed Sep 17, 2025 5:27 pm
That is bWAR from Baseball reference, generally considered to be inferior to fWAR which is Fangraphs.
Still, what Judge has done at the plate is nothing short of staggering when you compare it to the rest of the League. Did you ever think someone would lead in AVG, OBP, and Slugging, and not be the front runner for the MVP award? And, to ask this again...if Judge was a Mariner, how would you view this MVP race?

User avatar
D-train
Posts: 77069
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:33 am
Location: Quincy, MA

Re: Cal vs. Judge for MVP

Post by D-train » Wed Sep 17, 2025 5:46 pm

I can see both sides. I am fine letting the voters decide. I will respect their decision either way.
dt

User avatar
Sibelius Hindemith
Posts: 14778
Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 3:09 am
Location: Seattle

Re: Cal vs. Judge for MVP

Post by Sibelius Hindemith » Wed Sep 17, 2025 5:47 pm

Park factors should come into play.

User avatar
desbcoach
Posts: 4746
Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 3:49 am

Re: Cal vs. Judge for MVP

Post by desbcoach » Wed Sep 17, 2025 5:53 pm

Michael K. wrote:
Wed Sep 17, 2025 5:17 pm
DavidGee24 wrote:
Wed Sep 17, 2025 4:24 pm
And that Judge is even slightly ahead in WAR is irrelevant when you consider the advanced degree of difficulty there is for a catcher to do that. Yogi Berra and Roy Campanella each won three MVPs despite not really being even close to leading the league in WAR those years. In fact, the only two catchers to ever lead the league in WAR were Johnny Bench in 1972 and Buster Posey in 2012, both winning the MVP.

Also, if Cal weren't DHing which is a deflater he would be leading the league in WAR. Neither Bench nor Posey DH'd and had to catch almost 150 games.
We all see that. But how many voters are going to look at the large discrepancy in AVG, Slugging, OB and OPS?

I am also no baseball stat head. But this link has Judge at 8.4 WAR and Cal at 6.5

https://stathead.com/baseball/versus-fi ... dge-001aar

But, more importantly...since I think WAR is fucking dumb as shit. 27 more hits, 79 points higher in AVG, 90 points higher in OBP, 86 points higher in SLG and and OPS of 1.127 compared to .951? OPS + of 209 compared to 169?

All of those stats are quoted around here all the time. Again, I have no clue why the WAR stat I found is different than DTs, but those other numbers jump out at me. 8 players in all of baseball hitting over .300, and no one has a higher average than Judge. He is also second in Walks and 4th in HRs.

His .326 AVG is 9 points higher than the second best in baseball.
His .451 OBP is 56 points higher than the second best in baseball.
His .676 Slg is 65 points higher than the second best in baseball.
His 1.127 makes him one of only two players with an OPS over 1, and his is .121 higher than Ohtani, who is second best.

If Judge was a Mariner we'd be saying it's a no brainer. I'm afraid it is. Judge is having an other worldly season.
They haveAn award for the best hitter, this is the most valuable and you have to consider what he does as a catcher

User avatar
D-train
Posts: 77069
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:33 am
Location: Quincy, MA

Re: Cal vs. Judge for MVP

Post by D-train » Wed Sep 17, 2025 6:39 pm

Sibelius Hindemith wrote:
Wed Sep 17, 2025 5:47 pm
Park factors should come into play.
They are incorporated into the WAR calc.
dt

Captain 97
Posts: 3424
Joined: Mon May 06, 2019 9:23 pm

Re: Cal vs. Judge for MVP

Post by Captain 97 » Wed Sep 17, 2025 9:10 pm

Its a big hill to climb. Offensively Judge is an overwhelmingly better all around hitter. However, His season is not unprecedented for an outfielder the way that Cal's is for a catcher. Hard to say how the voters will consider the Catcher factor. Perez Finished 7th the year he hit 48 but his OPS was significantly lower than Cal's and Ohtani was in the mix as a two way player throwing all the voting out of whack.

Post Reply