Playoffs? Playoffs??

[D-train]

Damn this game is so huge Sunday.

By Bob Condotta
Seattle Times staff reporter
If the NFL season ended today, the Seahawks would be the No. 2 seed in the NFC and host the seventh-seeded Green Bay Packers in a wild card playoff game.

Maybe this time the Seahawks wouldn’t fall behind 16-0 and need a pass thrown by a punter off a fake field goal to mount one of the most implausible comebacks in NFL history to beat the Packers, though it was undeniably fun watching it the first time around in the NFC Championship Game in 2015.

The season, of course, doesn’t end today.

Every team has seven or eight more games, depending on if they’ve had their bye. And all 32 still have at least faint playoff hopes — yep, even the 1-8 Tennessee Titans.

But some teams at this point obviously have far better playoff odds than others.

You can put the Seahawks right at the top of the “good odds” list.

According to The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator, the Seahawks have a 96% chance of making the playoffs.

The only teams that are better are the 8-2 Patriots at better than 99%, the Eagles at better than 99%, and the Rams at 99%.

The Eagles, Seahawks and Rams are all 7-2 and tied for the best record in the NFC.



But the Eagles hold the No. 1 seed based on a better conference record than the Seahawks — 6-1 to 4-2.

The Seahawks have the edge on the Rams because of a better division record — 2-1 to the Rams’ 1-1.

A lot figures to change this weekend as four of the top five seeds in the NFC play each other — the Seahawks at the Rams at 1:05 p.m. Sunday and the 6-3 Lions, who are the three seed as the leaders of the NFC North at the Eagles on Sunday night.

If the season ended today, the Lions would host the 6-3 Bears in the wild card round (Detroit holds a head-to-head tiebreaker on Chicago), while the Rams would travel to play at 6-3 Tampa Bay (leaders of the NFC South) in the other wild card game.

Out of the playoffs for now is the only other team, besides the seven listed above, that has a winning record in the NFC — the 6-4 49ers.

Don’t completely count out the 49ers as they could well be favored to win their next four games — at Arizona, vs. Carolina, at Cleveland and vs. Tennessee — and hop right back in the NFC West race.

While the Rams have the sixth-toughest schedule remaining and the Seahawks the seventh — due in large part to each still having to play the other twice — the 49ers have just the 20th, due in part to having already played the Rams twice and the Seahawks once, going 2-1 in those games.

Let’s quickly review each team’s schedule the rest of the way:

Seahawks
Sunday, at Rams (7-2)
Nov. 23, at Tennessee (1-8)
Nov. 30, vs. Minnesota (4-5)
Dec. 7 at Atlanta (3-6)
Dec. 14, vs. Indianapolis (8-2)
Dec. 18, vs. Rams (7-2)
Dec. 27-28, at Carolina (5-5)
Jan. 3-4 at San Francisco (6-4)

Combined opponents win-loss record: 41-34, 54.7%.

The five-day span hosting the Colts and Rams looms as one of the more interesting and fun in recent team history.

Rams
Sunday, vs. Seahawks (7-2)
Nov. 23, vs. Tampa Bay (6-3)
Nov. 30, at Carolina (5-5)
Dec. 7, at Arizona (3-6)
Dec. 14, vs. Detroit (6-3)
Dec. 18, at Seahawks (7-2)
Dec. 29, at Atlanta (3-6)
Jan. 3-4, vs. Arizona (3-6)
Combined opponents win-loss record: 40-33, 54.8%.

One apparent growing advantage for the Seahawks is getting a visit from slumping Minnesota as its NFC North game this year while the Rams get Detroit.

49ers
Sunday, at Arizona (3-6)
Nov. 24, vs. Carolina (5-5)
Nov. 30, at Cleveland (2-7)
Dec. 14, vs. Tennessee (1-8)
Dec. 22, at Indianapolis (8-2)
Dec. 28, vs. Chicago (6-3)
Jan. 3-4, vs. Seahawks (7-2)
Combined opponents won-lost record: 32-35, 47.8%.

If the 49ers were to win the next four, they obviously have a tough finishing stretch with their last three. But two are at home.

The relative ease of the 49ers’ schedule plays into why they have a 78% chance of making the playoffs, per The Athletic’s simulator, despite currently being the eighth seed in the NFC and on the outside looking in.

What all the teams at the top of the playoff ladder are vying for is the No. 1 seed and first-round bye and home field through the rest of the playoffs.

True, the No. 1 seed is hardly a direct ticket to the Super Bowl.

Since the seven-team playoff format debuted in 2020, five of the 10 No. 1 seeds have made it to the Super Bowl and only one has won it — the Kansas City Chiefs in 2022.

Still, any team would much rather have the bye and the week off and the home games all the way through to the Super Bowl.

According to The Athletic’s simulator, the Eagles have the best odds at getting the top seed in the NFC at 34% followed by the Rams at 33%, the Seahawks at 16% and the Lions at 11%. Tampa Bay is also 6-3 and a division leader, but its odds are just 2% due mostly to having already lost to the Eagles and Lions and on the losing end of head-to-head tiebreakers with each.

As you would expect, the Seahawks’ odds improve greatly with a win Sunday.

According to The Athletic, the Seahawks will have a better than 99% chance to make the playoffs with a win over the Rams on Sunday, while their odds of getting the top seed improve to 32%.

How about this scenario? A Seahawks win coupled with a Lions victory over the Eagles would give them a 38% chance at the top seed with the Lions at 21%, the Eagles at 19% and the Rams at 18%.

That is, of course, asking for wins by two road teams, each of whom enters the week as underdogs — the Seahawks by three points, the Lions by 2.5.

And at this point, some readers may be thinking we’re getting ahead of ourselves even talking about all of this.

No doubt, there’s a lot of work to do, and a lot that can still happen.

Seahawks fans don’t need much reminding how starts of 6-3 in the 2022 and 2023 seasons dissolved into final records of 9-8, and a lone wild card berth in the 2022 season.

This team just looks and feels different.

Two reasons?

The Seahawks boast a point differential of plus-103, second in the NFL behind only the plus-115 of the Colts.

The Seahawks are also averaging 1.7 yards per play more than their opponent — getting 6.3 every time they snap the ball and giving up 4.6 every time the opponent snaps the ball.

That’s better than the 2013 Super Bowl-champion team, which had a yards-per-play differential of plus-1.2 (5.6 offense, 4.4 defense), and is the best in the NFL.

The Colts are next at plus-1.2 (6.4 offense, 5.2 defense), followed by the Lions at plus-1.1 (6.1, 5.0) and the Rams at plus-1.0 (5.9. 4.9).

Now to play the games and see how it all unfolds.

[Captain 97]

Last time a team started 8-2 and missed the playoffs was the Raiders in 1995. They lost their final 6 and ended up in a 3 way tie with the Seahawks and Broncos for last place in the division.

[auroraave]

I expect Seattle to lose and then the usual over reactions and handwringing and lamenting that it's the end of the world. It won't be. The 'media' will immediately call Seattle 'pretenders' blah blah blah. Seattle is riding high off of two blowouts against BAD TEAMS. While the Lambs game is big, it won't define the season - unless it's an injury or something.

I don't think the Lambs are better, per se, but I do not see how they stop the Lambs TE group - and I think that is the difference in the game. That and experience. This is a playoff-caliber game. Seattle had no answer for Az's ONE GOOD TE - Lambs have multiple and a very competent play caller. I think this game might be a classic with the Lambs winning in the last minute - which satifies the league and tv ratings.

The most important thing happening now, besides Seattle's win streak and elevated profile - is that they have players to market in JSN and Darnold, and that is what the league wants more than anything else in a playoff/SB matchup. It's not about football - it's about marketing - and Seattle is starting to check that box - and that may be the most important one - that's both good and bad.

I am thinking 27-24 Lambs. I don't think a loss here is a bad thing - obviously that sucks, but I think that the last two games have been an illusion, and the hype is a little premature - and a loss here will be humbling and force them to refocus and dig deeper - and that is when I think the ceiling for this team emerges. They are close now, oh so close. They need a 12 round heavy weight fight to see who they really are - not blowouts against trash teams.

I love it!

[Captain 97]

You think the tight ends are going to be why they lose? The Rams have multiple tight ends but they aren't all that great. The 4 of them have a combined 518 Yards on the season. Trey McBride has 603 yards on the season by himself. Barner and Arroyo both have more yards than any of the Rams tight ends.

[auroraave]

You think the tight ends are going to be why they lose? The Rams have multiple tight ends but they aren't all that great. The 4 of them have a combined 518 Yards on the season. Trey McBride has 603 yards on the season by himself. Barner and Arroyo both have more yards than any of the Rams tight ends.

It's scheme and mismatches - not greatness. That is what McVey is great at - and we CANNOT stop tight ends. That offense has done more with less than anyone - because McVey know how to scheme players open and thier QB identifies the mismatch and exploits it fast. We are not on that level yet.

[Sibelius Hindemith]

Rams currently 3.5 point favorites. I think if the Seahawks lose but look competitive that will still be a positive outcome. The season finale will more likely be the game that determines the division champ.

[D-train]

I expect Seattle to lose and then the usual over reactions and handwringing and lamenting that it's the end of the world. It won't be. The 'media' will immediately call Seattle 'pretenders' blah blah blah. Seattle is riding high off of two blowouts against BAD TEAMS. While the Lambs game is big, it won't define the season - unless it's an injury or something.

I don't think the Lambs are better, per se, but I do not see how they stop the Lambs TE group - and I think that is the difference in the game. That and experience. This is a playoff-caliber game. Seattle had no answer for Az's ONE GOOD TE - Lambs have multiple and a very competent play caller. I think this game might be a classic with the Lambs winning in the last minute - which satifies the league and tv ratings.

The most important thing happening now, besides Seattle's win streak and elevated profile - is that they have players to market in JSN and Darnold, and that is what the league wants more than anything else in a playoff/SB matchup. It's not about football - it's about marketing - and Seattle is starting to check that box - and that may be the most important one - that's both good and bad.

I am thinking 27-24 Lambs. I don't think a loss here is a bad thing - obviously that sucks, but I think that the last two games have been an illusion, and the hype is a little premature - and a loss here will be humbling and force them to refocus and dig deeper - and that is when I think the ceiling for this team emerges. They are close now, oh so close. They need a 12 round heavy weight fight to see who they really are - not blowouts against trash teams.

I love it!

LOL you said the same about Sunday vs. the Cards. Thanks for guaranteeing a win in LA!!

[D-train]

Regarding TEs. The are often match up problems because there are never tall big TE bodies on Defense. I wonder why. Seems you could take a TE and convert him to Defense just to cover other teams TEs? I wonder why this is never done. I guess because the would be good at defending the run??

[D-train]

Rams currently 3.5 point favorites. I think if the Seahawks lose but look competitive that will still be a positive outcome. The season finale will more likely be the game that determines the division champ.

Basically HFA advantage. Neutral field it would be a pick em

[Nwadventure]

Waiting on todays practice/injury report -