Who had the best plan from the mariners podsters

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harmony
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Re: Who had the best plan from the mariners podsters

Post by harmony » Fri Nov 21, 2025 10:45 pm

D-train wrote:
Fri Nov 21, 2025 9:55 pm
harmony wrote:
Fri Nov 21, 2025 9:50 pm
GL_Storm wrote:
Fri Nov 21, 2025 9:24 pm


In their offseason plan, they have Harry Ford going to the Nationals for Mackenzie Gore, which opens up the backup catcher role.
It's worth noting that that this year the Washington Nationals finished last in fWAR from the catcher position (but for the Angels, a distant, distant last):

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major ... &pagenum=1
So they are trading Castillo, right? I read some of the replies of Card fans on that site. Some reasonable replies but what do they think JC and Arroyo are in A ball. So easy to look them up if they have the internets...lol
The Locked On Mariners podcasters proposed a trade of Luis Castillo and $12 million (over two years) to San Francisco for right-handers Hayden Birdsong and Trent Harris.

The podcasters proposed replacing Castillo with Washington left-hander MacKenzie Gore, who comes with two years of team control and a projected 2024 salary of $4.7 million.

But think of it as swapping Castillo's guaranteed 2026 salary of $24.15 million for Gore at $10.7 million (his projected $4.7 million salary plus the $6 million the Mariners send with Castillo). Castillo has a guaranteed salary through 2027 while, on top of the $6 million the M's send the Giants in 2027, Gore will be due an arbitration raise in 2027 unless the left-hander is non-tendered.

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D-train
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Re: Who had the best plan from the mariners podsters

Post by D-train » Fri Nov 21, 2025 11:04 pm

Hayden Birdsong has been terrible and Harris had a 5.44 ERA in AAA. Did they try to find the worst pitchers in the Giants org to trade for Luis Castillo. Those two are complete idiots. That return is worse than Vargas and Seby for Geno. Just moronic.
dt

harmony
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Re: Who had the best plan from the mariners podsters

Post by harmony » Fri Nov 21, 2025 11:27 pm

D-train wrote:
Fri Nov 21, 2025 11:04 pm
Hayden Birdsong has been terrible and Harris had a 5.44 ERA in AAA. Did they try to find the worst pitchers in the Giants org to trade for Luis Castillo. Those two are complete idiots. That return is worse than Vargas and Seby for Geno. Just moronic.
That's the simple nature of salary dumps.

FWIW Baseball Trade Values recently assigned Hayden Birdsong a surplus value of $8.7 million and Trent Harris a surplus value of $2.4 million. As of today Luis Castillo was assigned a negative value of $2.9 million.

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GL_Storm
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Re: Who had the best plan from the mariners podsters

Post by GL_Storm » Sat Nov 22, 2025 12:16 am

D-train wrote:
Fri Nov 21, 2025 11:04 pm
Hayden Birdsong has been terrible and Harris had a 5.44 ERA in AAA. Did they try to find the worst pitchers in the Giants org to trade for Luis Castillo. Those two are complete idiots. That return is worse than Vargas and Seby for Geno. Just moronic.
I'd be happy with both those arms in AAA. In a salary dump scenario, those two are pretty good value.

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D-train
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Re: Who had the best plan from the mariners podsters

Post by D-train » Sat Nov 22, 2025 1:31 am

harmony wrote:
Fri Nov 21, 2025 11:27 pm
D-train wrote:
Fri Nov 21, 2025 11:04 pm
Hayden Birdsong has been terrible and Harris had a 5.44 ERA in AAA. Did they try to find the worst pitchers in the Giants org to trade for Luis Castillo. Those two are complete idiots. That return is worse than Vargas and Seby for Geno. Just moronic.
That's the simple nature of salary dumps.

FWIW Baseball Trade Values recently assigned Hayden Birdsong a surplus value of $8.7 million and Trent Harris a surplus value of $2.4 million. As of today Luis Castillo was assigned a negative value of $2.9 million.
We don't need to do a salary dump for those two Jokers. It is literally downgrading both the rotation and pen for no reason.
dt

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D-train
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Re: Who had the best plan from the mariners podsters

Post by D-train » Sat Nov 22, 2025 1:32 am

GL_Storm wrote:
Sat Nov 22, 2025 12:16 am
D-train wrote:
Fri Nov 21, 2025 11:04 pm
Hayden Birdsong has been terrible and Harris had a 5.44 ERA in AAA. Did they try to find the worst pitchers in the Giants org to trade for Luis Castillo. Those two are complete idiots. That return is worse than Vargas and Seby for Geno. Just moronic.
I'd be happy with both those arms in AAA. In a salary dump scenario, those two are pretty good value.
Then you are easy to please. I am not. Bad relievers in AAA don't win WS titles.
dt

harmony
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Re: Who had the best plan from the mariners podsters

Post by harmony » Sat Nov 22, 2025 3:58 pm

D-train wrote:
Sat Nov 22, 2025 1:31 am
harmony wrote:
Fri Nov 21, 2025 11:27 pm
D-train wrote:
Fri Nov 21, 2025 11:04 pm
Hayden Birdsong has been terrible and Harris had a 5.44 ERA in AAA. Did they try to find the worst pitchers in the Giants org to trade for Luis Castillo. Those two are complete idiots. That return is worse than Vargas and Seby for Geno. Just moronic.
That's the simple nature of salary dumps.

FWIW Baseball Trade Values recently assigned Hayden Birdsong a surplus value of $8.7 million and Trent Harris a surplus value of $2.4 million. As of today Luis Castillo was assigned a negative value of $2.9 million.
We don't need to do a salary dump for those two Jokers. It is literally downgrading both the rotation and pen for no reason.
The Locked On Mariners offseason plan replaces Luis Castillo with MacKenzie Gore in the Seattle rotation. FanGraphs projects Mackenzie Gore with 2.9 WAR over 31 starts next year in his age 27 season and Luis Castillo with 2.4 WAR over 31 starts in his age 33 season.

The plan replaces Logan Evans with Hayden Birdsong as rotation depth. FanGraphs projects Evans with 0.2 WAR in 34 appearances, including six starts, covering 64 innings, while projecting Birdsong, who is three months younger, with 0.6 WAR in 34 appearances, including 16 starts, covering 104 innings.

The plan adds left-hander Tim Herrin and right-hander Riley O'Brien to a returning bullpen plus the standard complement of Spring Training invites on minor league contracts.

It's easy to take issue with individual moves of the multi-faceted proposal, but it's best to become familiar with the details of a plan before attempting to critique the plan.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mcK7lWfD7G0&t=2846s
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D-train
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Re: Who had the best plan from the mariners podsters

Post by D-train » Sat Nov 22, 2025 5:24 pm

Swapping out Castillo for Gore is fine I guess.

Adding Donovan is good but he has only played 20 games at 3B so you still don't have a 3rd baseman. And you have 3 2nd basemen.

Putting Herrin and his 4.85 ERA and 5.08 FIP and 1.57 WHIP in the Bullpen is insane.

They predicted Santos was going to be tendered which they were wrong about.

Bring Garver back makes me want to puke since he basically stole millions from the team.

They were also wrong about Raley not being tendered and replacing him with Castro is lame.

Overall I would give the plan a C- and I don't see this as a WS roster in the least.
dt

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Donn Beach
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Re: Who had the best plan from the mariners podsters

Post by Donn Beach » Sat Nov 22, 2025 5:36 pm

I'm thinking maybe Donovan only played 20 games at 3rd base because Nolan Arenado was playing there

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D-train
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Re: Who had the best plan from the mariners podsters

Post by D-train » Sat Nov 22, 2025 5:41 pm

2025 WAR and projected 2026 WAR of the new guys in that plan:

Gore 2.9 2.9
Herrin -0.4 0.2
Donovan 2.9 3.1
O Brien 0.3 0.5
Garver 0.0 0.4
Castro 0.5 1.3

2 solid additions with greater than 0.5 WAR in 2025 and four guys that combined for 0.4 fWAR in 2025 but are some how are projected to have 2.2 fWAR in 2026 a whopping 0.6 WAR per player. lol

And you have to trade a great teammate and fan favorite who was the OD starter just over a year and a half ago and Prince Harry before you even know what he will be in the big leagues to do it.

I was probably too generous with my C- grade.
dt

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