Virus Schmirus

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Coeurd’Alene J
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Re: Virus Schmirus

Post by Coeurd’Alene J » Fri Apr 24, 2020 3:14 am

D-train wrote:
Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:44 pm
D-train wrote:
Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:20 pm
Sibelius Hindemith wrote:
Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:21 am
It sounds like they are supposed to report deaths of people with pre-existing health problems that were exacerbated by Covid19, as well as people who died of other causes and may have shown no symptoms of Covid19 but tested positive for the virus, as SARS-CoV2 deaths. And that is inaccurate and dishonest.
This is a total hunch and speculation but my guess it the splits are something like this.

% of deaths for people not even testing positives: 1%
% of deaths for people testing positive that would have died that day anyway: 10%
% of deaths for people that would have died that week anyway: 20%
% of people that would have died that month anyway: 24%
% of people that would have died that year anyway: 40%
% of people that would have went on to live long and healthy lives: 5%
Just saw that over 10k deaths have been in Nursing Homes..about 25%
So add in the fact of hundreds of thousands of Americans who have no symptoms and subtract the 10,000 nursing home patients and this thing becomes an average flu


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gil
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Re: Virus Schmirus

Post by gil » Fri Apr 24, 2020 5:15 pm

That's too bad. Obviously we've all been hoping that hydroxychloroquine or some other existing drug would be "game changer." I guess it's back to the old fashioned way of hard work in the lab and development.

Also, responding to
Just saw that over 10k deaths have been in Nursing Homes..about 25%
So add in the fact of hundreds of thousands of Americans who have no symptoms and subtract the 10,000 nursing home patients and this thing becomes an average flu
CDC estimates this year's flu deaths at between 24,000 and 62,000 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/pr ... imates.htm and that annual flu deaths since 2010 have ranged between 12,000 and 61,000 https://www.health.com/condition/cold-f ... every-year. So yes, numbers in the range of an average flu year. But Covid-19 is not over yet. And I think it's hard to argue that the death toll would be this low if it were not for the harsh shutdown of businesses and gatherings.

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Coeurd’Alene J
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Re: Virus Schmirus

Post by Coeurd’Alene J » Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:10 pm

If we are going to add suspected wuflu cases than we also need to add in suicides and heart attacks to the list of deaths that were caused by shutting down the country, which by the way hasn’t even began to show results yet


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Coeurd’Alene J
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Re: Virus Schmirus

Post by Coeurd’Alene J » Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:23 pm

Earlier this morning I read about a major hospital in Michigan--far from the Detroit hotspot--effectively being closed. And then I read this:

Instead Of ‘Flattening The Curve,’ We Flattened Hospitals, Doctors, And The U.S. Health Care System
Across the country, hospitals shut down 'non-essential' procedures in preparation for a surge of coronavirus patients that never appeared.

Preserving the availability of medical resources during a pandemic seems like a good idea, but it's difficult to see how closing hospitals and putting medical personnel out of work advances that goal. There had to be a better way.

When the lockdowns began last month, we were told that if we didn’t stay home our hospitals would be overwhelmed with coronavirus patients, intensive care wards would be overrun, there wouldn’t be enough ventilators, and some people would probably die in their homes for lack of care. To maintain capacity in the health-care system, we all had to go on lockdown—not just the big cities, but everywhere.
So we stayed home, businesses closed, and tens of millions of Americans lost their jobs. But with the exception of New York City, the overwhelming surge of coronavirus patients never really appeared—at least not in the predicted numbers, which have been off by hundreds of thousands.

Yes, I know this begs numerous questions.

Meanwhile, hospitals and health care systems nationwide have had to furlough or lay off thousands of employees. Why? Because the vast major of most hospitals’ revenue comes from elective or “non-essential” procedures. We’re not talking about LASIK eye surgery but things like coronary angioplasty and stents, procedures that are necessary but maybe not emergencies—yet. If hospitals can’t perform these procedures because governors have banned them, then they can’t pay their bills, or their employees.
...
I’m sure the governors and health officials who ordered these lockdowns meant well. ...
However, in hindsight it seems clear that treating the entire country as if it were New York City was a huge mistake ...

But that appears to be the goal of the Left--transforming the USA into NYC.

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Coeurd’Alene J
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Re: Virus Schmirus

Post by Coeurd’Alene J » Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:24 pm

gil wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 5:15 pm
That's too bad. Obviously we've all been hoping that hydroxychloroquine or some other existing drug would be "game changer." I guess it's back to the old fashioned way of hard work in the lab and development.

Also, responding to
Just saw that over 10k deaths have been in Nursing Homes..about 25%
So add in the fact of hundreds of thousands of Americans who have no symptoms and subtract the 10,000 nursing home patients and this thing becomes an average flu
CDC estimates this year's flu deaths at between 24,000 and 62,000 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/pr ... imates.htm and that annual flu deaths since 2010 have ranged between 12,000 and 61,000 https://www.health.com/condition/cold-f ... every-year. So yes, numbers in the range of an average flu year. But Covid-19 is not over yet. And I think it's hard to argue that the death toll would be this low if it were not for the harsh shutdown of businesses and gatherings.
I disagree

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Double Mocha Man
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Re: Virus Schmirus

Post by Double Mocha Man » Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:48 pm

Nursing homes. Prisons. State psychiatric hospitals. Choir practice. All with people in close proximity... lethal. Probably, most Covid-19 deaths have come from these places. But if we say that's where the problem is and then we all go out to ball games, bars and restaurants we're putting ourselves in the same dangerous position.

Missing my local bars, but probably won't go back until there's a vaccine. Would not be fond of sitting two bar stools apart from friends...
DMM

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Double Mocha Man
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Re: Virus Schmirus

Post by Double Mocha Man » Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:50 pm

The choir practice thing was in Mount Vernon. I'm sure most of you know of it. 60 members, hand sanitizer, no hand shaking, no hugs. Lot's of projected spittle in the air via singing. 45 came down with the corona virus. 2 dead.
DMM

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Moe Gibbs
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Re: Virus Schmirus

Post by Moe Gibbs » Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:27 pm

Double Mocha Man wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:50 pm
The choir practice thing was in Mount Vernon. I'm sure most of you know of it. 60 members, hand sanitizer, no hand shaking, no hugs. Lot's of projected spittle in the air via singing. 45 came down with the corona virus. 2 dead.
A lot of people who have been given grim news of a terminal condition suddenly "get religious" and decide to join churches. I'll bet the average church goer today has fewer years left to live [by all causes] than most any other group that is out there.
People back in the day [when common sense used to be admired] already knew this. Why is it that ALL of the worst Corona outbreaks occur in the Liberal Rich / Trump Hating parts of the USA...?

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