Cy Young last year, now 4-6 with a 4.40 ERA, last start knocked out by Yanks in the first!
Already lost more games than last year.
Blake Snell from Heaven to Hell
Re: Blake Snell from Heaven to Hell
I don't know why there is no real drop in FB velocity. There is some on max velocity but not a lot.
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php? ... 06/23/2019
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php? ... 06/23/2019
- Donn Beach
- Posts: 13829
- Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 1:06 am
Re: Blake Snell from Heaven to Hell
In some ways, Snell’s stuff is more impressive than it was last season. He’s generating more swing-and-misses than ever before. He’s averaging more strikeouts and less walks. Even his percentage of hard-hit balls has gone down.
So how do you explain this?
Warily, I suppose.
There are a handful of theories but no obvious smoking gun. The easiest way to explain it is Snell has had less luck and worse timing. Line drives that might have been caught last year are now reaching the outfield grass, and a few extra fly balls have left the park.
But the biggest difference has been Snell’s performance with runners in scoring position. Last season, Snell stranded runners on base at an otherworldly pace.
Opponents hit just .088 (10-for-114) against him with runners on second or third. This season, hitters have a .237 average (14-for-59) with runners in scoring position against Snell.
That, alone, could account for a big chunk of his increased ERA.
https://www.tampabay.com/sports/rays/20 ... he-answer/
Re: Blake Snell from Heaven to Hell
His FIP is only up slightly from 2.95 to 3.37
His xFIP is nearly identical at 3.16 in 2018 and 3.14 this season.
His xFIP is nearly identical at 3.16 in 2018 and 3.14 this season.
fWAR is 1.8. bWAR is 0.5In traditional FIP, you would use the pitcher's home run total, but in xFIP, you derive an expected number of home runs by taking the pitcher's fly balls allowed multiplied by the league average home run per fly ball rate.
dt
- Donn Beach
- Posts: 13829
- Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 1:06 am
Re: Blake Snell from Heaven to Hell
yea, was thinking that is pretty interesting, he is basically the same pitcher as last season, shows how much luck is involved, the slash line numbers can be very deceptive. It would seem like his arm had fallen off, Rays fans must think so. And on top of it the Rays are doing ok, if he is able to put up more wins in the second half look out
Re: Blake Snell from Heaven to Hell
It is a great example of the difference between bWAR and fWAR. bWAR shows the results including luck and fWAR takes all the luck out of it. I like bWAR for what your value was but fWAR is a far better indicator of the future.Donn Beach wrote: ↑Mon Jun 24, 2019 1:36 amyea, was thinking that is pretty interesting, he is basically the same pitcher as last season, shows how much luck is involved, the slash line numbers can be very deceptive. It would seem like his arm had fallen off, Rays fans must think so. And on top of it the Rays are doing ok, if he is able to put up more wins in the second half look out
dt
Re: Blake Snell from Heaven to Hell
Check that Brooks baseball link. The velocity across his pitches is a little different. The average velocity is about the same but the max is down.Donn Beach wrote: ↑Mon Jun 24, 2019 1:36 amyea, was thinking that is pretty interesting, he is basically the same pitcher as last season, shows how much luck is involved, the slash line numbers can be very deceptive. It would seem like his arm had fallen off, Rays fans must think so. And on top of it the Rays are doing ok, if he is able to put up more wins in the second half look out