2021 MLB DRAFT Prospect Watch

[Sexymarinersfan]

Louisville catcher Henry Davis has an incredible eye at the plate, rarely swinging and missing, making hard contact with power, and showing a plus arm with good hands on defense.

So why the &^@$ isn’t he the top prospect in this draft class?

The assumption all spring has been that the first overall pick, held by Pittsburgh, would be one of the two Vanderbilt right-handers, Jack Leiter (No. 1 on my board) or Kumar Rocker. But the industry has long held that position players are safer picks than pitchers, and there are few more valuable position players than catchers who can hit and defend. Davis can do those things, and there aren’t many better hitters in this class at any position

Davis has an elite approach at the plate, an ideal combination of selectivity, pitch recognition, and hand acceleration, so that he just doesn’t swing and miss. I saw one swing-and-miss in 10 plate appearances over two games, and his whiff rate this season is only around 6 percent, while he reached base safely in eight of those trips to the plate via five hits and three walks. His swing is beautiful, with the aforementioned quick hands and great hip rotation to allow him to drive the ball, and he showed no problem catching up to 96-97 against UVA. Behind the plate, he receives well but needs some work with blocking, while the Cavaliers never even tested his plus arm.

Two days of watching Davis gave me strong Buster Posey vibes, and Posey, who went fifth overall in the 2008 draft, should have gone first. (He was No. 2 on my draft board that year, behind Tim Beckham, who was the first overall pick and the consensus top prospect. I had it wrong.) Posey hit with the old silly bats, but his .463/.566/.879 line as a junior — with a nearly 2:1 walk to strikeout ratio — would probably look a lot like Davis’ current line of .409/.533/.678, with a BB:K ratio over 2 if Posey used the modern composite bats the NCAA requires now.

Even if you think Davis is Posey Lite, is that a more valuable player than a good No. 2 starter, which is Leiter’s projection? Would you prefer the certainty of a catcher who hits to the wider variance in outcomes for Rocker, who can show you No. 1 stuff and has a workhorse build, but lacks the command or consistency of a Leiter? Joey Bart was the No. 2 pick three years ago, with an inferior offensive profile and track record to Davis, striking out far more often. Maybe it’s time to reconsider the idea that the first pick has to be one of the Vandy boys, even if Pittsburgh is limiting its choices to college players. Davis is, at the very least, good enough to be in their decision set.

• On Saturday, Davis faced Virginia right-hander Mike Vasil, who would have been a first-round pick — possibly a top 15 overall pick — in 2018 had he not withdrawn his name from the draft to go to Virginia – a choice that I would never recommend any prospect make, since the worst thing that can happen to you in the draft is that (checks notes) you get drafted, and some team offers you money. Vasil’s road at UVA has been bumpy, and while he’s been good enough this year to be a pick in the top three rounds, I don’t think the $3-4 million he might have seen from high school is coming back. Vasil was 90-96 on Saturday, mostly pitching at 90-94, with a four-pitch mix that featured heavy usage of an 82-84 mph changeup, but Louisville hitters squared both pitches up too frequently. His best weapon might be the cutter he threw at 88-89, which could break some left-handers’ bats in pro ball, but the Virginia coaches didn’t call for it much. He threw five innings and gave up 12 hits with just one strikeout, only the second time in 2021 he hasn’t punched out at least four. His delivery works fine and his arm speed is good, but he has nothing to miss better bats and I can’t see him going on day one as is.

• Louisville first baseman Alex Binelas, who played on a Wisconsin team with Jarred Kelenic in high school and came into the year as a possible back-end first-round pick, has struggled badly this year and is limited to first base or possibly DH, pushing him well down scouts’ pref lists. Binelas showed both sides of the coin in the two games I saw; he swung and missed through five straight fastball strikes from lefty Andrew Abbott on Friday, was caught looking on the sixth, and put the seventh fastball he saw somewhere deep over the right-field wall. He homered again on Saturday off a right-handed reliever, and it was louder and farther than the first one. He’s a mediocre defender at first, doesn’t show a great idea of the strike zone, and really didn’t like facing a lefty on Friday … but that’s grade-70 power, and he actually doesn’t strike out that often against right-handers (17 percent on the season, versus 28 percent against lefties), enough positives that someone ought to roll the dice on him in the third round if he’s still there.

• Griff McGarry made his first relief appearance of the year for Virginia on Saturday, and the right-hander was 96-97 with a very fast arm and a slider at 79 that got Davis to fly out … but he’s also walked 28 guys in 23 1/3 innings this year, most of that coming in seven starts for the Cavs. He’s draft-eligible, as is right-hander Zach Messinger, who was 92-93 with a change and curveball, nothing plus, but he’s 6-foot-6 and his arm works well enough that he could be drafted in rounds 6-10, as could McGarry with that stuff.

• Louisville lefty Michael Kirian started Friday night and had some success early with an 88-93 mph fastball up in the zone, but both his curve and change-up were grade-45 pitches — the curveball is slow and loopy, so left-handed batters tracked it too well. I’m not sure he’s more than a minor-league depth starter.

• Louisville freshman Alex Galvan made just his fourth appearance of the year, but he’s 6-6 with a decent arm action and a 92-93 mph fastball, enough to file his name away for the future.

• When I saw Virginia third baseman Zack Gelof two weeks ago, he was struggling to make routine throws across the diamond. Whatever was bothering him appears to be gone, as he made several very strong throws on routine and difficult plays. He’s still too focused on contact at the plate, rarely striking out but not doing damage. But if you feel good about him staying at third, you could bet on a change of approach and take him in the top five rounds.

• On Tuesday, I saw Malvern Prep center fielder Lonnie White, a possible late first-round or compensation-round pick who is also committed to Penn State to play wide receiver. White has gotten bigger since the fall and slowed down a little, which raises concerns that he’ll end up in right field rather than in center. His swing is very consistent and should lead to future power, with real leverage and loft in his finish, which he’ll need to profile in a corner. He didn’t face great pitching the day I saw him — Malvern won via mercy rule — and may not be able to mollify concerns about his hit tool this spring given the competition.

[Sexymarinersfan]

We’re about halfway into the Division 1 regular season, but many high schools still haven’t begun play beyond scrimmages yet, so there’s still a lot of scouting left to do, and that’s before we even consider what MLB’s Draft League (starting in late May) might look like. What I can say, for now at least, is that the draft class looks weaker today than it did six weeks ago. More players have underperformed or gotten hurt than have boosted their standing through performance, new tools, or new conditioning. The college right-hander class isn’t as good as it first looked, and the college position player crop is bad – we might not see an SEC position player drafted in the first round for the first time since 2014 and just the third time in 15 years. The high school crop is about average, maybe lighter on arms than usual, but that’s less of an issue as the industry has moved away from high school arms in the first round in the last two years. It’s a tough year to draft high, but it might be a good year to have extra picks and/or a large bonus pool. So without further ado, here we go.


1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt

From the moment his name was called for the Yankees’ 20th round selection in the 2019 draft, there was something always special about this kid. His 12-6 curve is devastating and the rest of his arsenal is scary good. If he goes before Rocker I wouldn’t be surprised. Leiter would absolutely go 1-1 if the draft were today, but I think he might actually be getting too much hype after his recent run of a nine-inning no-hitter, a seven-inning no-hit start, and two almost-as-dominant outings since then where he allowed six hits in 13 innings with 25 strikeouts. He’s the best guy in the class, but I don’t think it’s fair to assume that because he’s the top prospect this year, he’s going to be Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg – Leiter is different, and has less chance to become an ace than either of those guys did. But he’s still atop this board, and right now I don’t think it’s that close


2. Texas Rangers: Jordan Lawler, RHP/SS, Jesuit Prep HS (TX)

There’s a lot to like about Lawler. Big shortstop that does just about everything right, but isn’t elite in one skill. Texas needs to inject some star power into their system, and Lawler is a good start. He’s a shortstop in the mold of a Carlos Correa type. There might not be another pick in the entire draft with more intrigue around it than the Texas Rangers at no. 2. Jon Daniels and Chris Young have an interesting predicament on their hands. Take the famous, fan-favorite college arm with lineage and an impressive 5-pitch mix. Or do you take the Southern California shortstop with a pro frame to dream on and silky smooth defensive actions; Marcelo Mayer. In this instance, we’ve got the Rangers snagging local dirt dynamo Jordan Lawlar. Lawlar might not have a single 70-grade in his future, but it’s a good bet to be a plus hitter (maybe 70, if we’re being honest) with above average power and more above average grades across the board. It’s hard to walk away from an arm like Leiter, but Lawlar is arguably the best position player available in this class, and a local product to boot.


3. Detroit Tigers: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt

Immediately after 2020’s draft, Kumar Rocker’s name was atop everyone’s list for the 2021 draft. The hulking build is impressive, yes, and he knows how to use it to maximize his throws, but to me what’s most impressive is that his command has improved since he was first drafted a couple years back. He’s not a magician or even a technical pitcher. He’s a work horse. The one concern is if he will only rely on his velocity to get batters out. Because, if so, he’ll be on a fast track to the bullpen rather than a starting role. If I were him, I’d study what CC Sabathia did in his 19 years in baseball. The two are an easy comparison. It might be the key to Rocker’s longevity.


4. Boston Red Sox: Matt McClain, SS, UCLA

He’s Ian Kinsler with more pop. McClain’s collegiate career has been impressive and put UCLA back to prospect gold status. The Red Sox need infield bats who can actually hit and if they snag McClain here, they’ll be getting an advanced hitter with great work ethic and leadership. On top of that, he draws similarities to Boston great Dustin Pedroia.


5. Baltimore Orioles: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (CA)

Another prospect who doesn’t have any one skill better than the other, Marcelo Mayer does just about everything right. Much like many shortstops we’ve seen lately in the first round over the past five years, Mayer is a tall and lean player who isn’t a burner but has raw power. Baltimore hasn’t had a good shortstop since Manny Machado. Mayer might be a good start.


6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Henry Davis, C, Louisville

The New York native wasn’t on anyone’s list in the first round to start the season. Which is sort of odd because he’s been better each year of colligate play. Davis isn’t just a defensive catcher, he can hit too, and that seems to be where the trend is coming now the last few drafts for catchers. If you can hit, you’re going to be selected in the first round. Henry Davis has been the best player in the country this season and has cemented himself as a top ten pick as it stands today. Davis has an above average feel for hit, and likely projects that or better as a pro. He draws high marks for his approach and ability to barrel up the baseball. He’s a mature hitter who uses the entire field and knows his zone. There’s 55, maybe 60-grade game power here, mostly pull-side. Defensively, Davis has a 70-grade arm and fantastic athleticism behind the plate. He’s still working to receive the ball with softer hands, but that too has taken steps forward in 2021. Davis projects one of the more complete catchers in pro ball, and may be suited for a few all-star games in his future.

7. Kansas City Royals: Brady House, 3B, Winder-Barrow HS (GA)

It’s hard not to like Brady House. There are some Nolan Arenado/Josh Donaldson comparisons that scream potential superstar in the making. He’s a fringy runner but a solid glove at the hot corner. If he can calm down his strikeouts and show a little more consistency he might return to top five status as well. Few players can match the physicality and the subsequent upside of House. While his summer performances were concerning - he didn’t hit at all - he’s hit early this spring. Elite bat speed, athleticism and a shot to stick at short make House the kind of high upside pick the Royals are familiar with in the top ten. If it all clicks, the idea of a Witt Jr. + House middle of the order is something for Kansas City fans to dream on for years to come. The selection has a risk/reward quality many other organizations wouldn’t be comfortable with. Not Kansas City.


8. Colorado Rockies: Jud Fabian, OF, Florida

As is the case with many prospects this year, Fabian is having a hard time finding consistent footing at the beginning of the season. A natural hitter with more hit ability than power, Fabian wowed scouts with his ability to hit to all fields and his maturity at the plate. In the wood bat leagues, he never laid off the gas. If he can find his groove and get back to where he was, he’ll return to the top-five.


9. Los Angeles Angels: Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami

Castillo picked up where he left off last season. His defense has always been in question, but that’s okay, he’s more of a Victor Martinez prospect, where his bat is more valuable than his position. The Angels could go in a lot of different directions here, but ultimately they’ll settle for a bat. Can he stick behind the plate? That was the biggest question plaguing evaluators when it came to Del Castillo. A month into the season there’s now some question around his ability to hit for power. At this point in the season too much is made of small samples and few bats match the hit+power upside of the Miami backstop. Strong batted ball data make ADC a particularly on-brand pick for the savvy Brewers brass. They’ve shown they put less emphasis on defensive value than other clubs making the questions around his catching less of a non-starter.


10. New York Mets: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College

Frelick’s season just keeps getting better and better. Could he be a top-five pick? Hard to say. I believe he’s worthy of it. At first glance, it’s hard to predict what Frelick’s career will become. He’s a smaller player with a lot of pop. Will this pop translate well in the Bigs? Hard to say. Will he find a niche as a fielder/runner instead? Still, hard to say. If we’re talking hitting, the further the season moves along, the more legit Frelick appears. The Mets traded away Jared Kelenic, something I think they’ll regret in the long run, I believe. Drafting Frelick will inject some advanced hitting into their system again, before the bottom drops out.


11. Washington Nationals: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston

Cowser has one of the prettiest left-handed swings you’ll see. There’s debate whether he’ll play centerfield in the pros or one of the corners. His arm is okay, nothing great, but he does have good angles to the ball. The Nats need more college bats in their system and Cowser is a good addition.

12. Seattle Mariners: Ty Madden, Texas, RHP

In his prep years, Madden’s fastball stuck around 95. Since then, it can often touch 99 MPH. Seattle is looking good on the farm, and Madden could rise through their ranks and provide some serious starter strength. If you could sculpt a prospect from clay in the mold of what Jerry Dipoto is looking for, Madden would be the outcome. The physically imposing Longhorn comes with a big conference track record and experience dominating on the biggest stage. Like Cade Cavalli and Cole Henry before him, Madden has the high-90s fastball and loud secondaries. The fastball has taken big steps forward in 2021, as have the slider and changeup. He’s a reasonably sure bet to reach his mid-rotation ceiling at the next level, and with the athleticism and lack of innings on his resume, could presumably have more in the tank with pro development.


13. Philadelphia Phillies: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Mississippi

Scouts are torn if Hoglund will become a mid-rotation starter or an end-rotation starter. There are even those who think he’s destined for a reliever role. Most of his pitches are still maturing, and his velocity doesn’t seem to hit the upper 90s. At 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA this season, he’s making it hard for scouts to pigeon hole him.


14. San Francisco Giants: Khalil Watson, SS, Wake Forest HS (NC)

Watson is a speedy shortstop, who plays bigger than his 5’9″ frame. He knows how to pick pitches to hit and never chases outside stuff, especially when behind on counts. Watson has cemented himself as one of the top prep shortstops in this class after an unreal summer circuit. There are teams inside the top five that absolutely love Watson and his toolset. He’s in play here. Watson’s hit tool still needs to catch up to his bat speed and pro power potential. It’s sneaky-big pop. He’s shown the tools to stick at shortstop long term as well, with high level instincts and a strong arm on the dirt. Even if he’s forced to second base at the next level, the bat will carry his profile comfortably. Watson’s season won’t get started until mid-April, but you can expect scouts will be flocking to Wake Forest HS in due time to get their eyes on this explosive middle-infielder this spring.


15. Milwaukee Brewers: Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU

Hill is big, strong and profiles very close to Kumar Rocker. There is a possibility he might drop, however, if he can’t perform better. He’s a raw prospect with a very high ceiling. This could be a steal for the Brew Crew. Last week, he was shut down for the season with an arm injury. This might drop him in future drafts, as his ground was already shaky.


16. Miami Marlins: Izaac Pacheco, 3B, Friendswood HS (TX)

While this year’s crop might not be deep, there are names that we’ll be talking about years from now. Izaac Pacheco is one of those names. The state of Texas has been producing some very good hot corner prospects. Pacheco fits the mold. He compares to Brady House more than any third baseman in this draft. Miami would drool over this guy.


17. Cincinnati Reds: Ethan Wilson, OF, South Alabama

Much like many 2020 studs who find themselves in first round consideration at the moment, Wilson is having a so-so start to his season. When everything is clicking, he devastates pitchers that leave the ball over the plate, specifically speaking, southpaws. His defense isn’t as comparable, so what will get him drafted in the top-20 is his offense.


18. St. Louis Cardinals: Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christina HS (FL)

So many mocks have Painter in the 10-20 selection range, which is probably where he’ll be selected, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he rises to the top-10. Painter is 6’6″ and is one of the most athletic pitchers in this year’s crop. It also can be said it’s a weaker pitching class after Rocker and Leiter, so Painter could slide just about anywhere in the front half of the first round.


19. Toronto Blue Jays: James Wood, OF, IMG Academy (FL)

Tall and athletic, Wood has similarities to last year’s first rounder Zac Veen. When he hits the ball, it just sounds different. His power is raw and with the right coaching could really become a complete hitter. He’s fast on the base paths and good in the field. There’s room for him to jump higher in this draft. There may not be a higher upside prep bat in the 2021 class than James Wood. His immense 6-foot-5 frame and exemplary hand and bat speed from the left side are rivaled by few. Acquisitions like Wood and Austin Martin help guarantee a new window of playoff-caliber competition when this window eventually opens for Toronto.

20. New York Yankees: Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land HS (PA)

A tremendously raw contact hitter with good size and strength. Montgomery has been compared to the likes of a Hunter Pence and Jayson Werth.


21. Chicago Cubs: Alex Binelas, 3B, Louisville

Binelas started the year slow but is starting to find his game again. He’s hitting around .231 with 58 total bases. While this season has done him no favors, his makeup still is intriguing. I predict a drop out of the first round eventually. If he can keep hitting and make little mistakes in the field, he might be able to salvage his first round bid.


22. Chicago White Sox: Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East HS (NY)

Mack has proven he can be a quality catcher offensively and defensively. While he is committed to Clemson, many believe if selected in the first round that he’ll sign. A tough catcher with big league guff. Him and Henry Davis might be back-to-back if the cards fall right.


23. Cleveland Indians: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS (OK)

And here is another pitcher/shortstop out of Oklahoma that could be picked in the first two rounds. What’s in the water down there? Jackson Jobe is more valuable as a pitcher, and he has attributes that are hard to ignore. His slider might be the best slider in this entire draft.


24. Atlanta Braves: Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State

There’s not many great lefties in this year’s class. Wicks is among the best of them. His stats are gaudy, sure, but he’s got some real stuff that seems to be developing each time he steps on the bump.


25. Oakland Athletics: Alex Mooney, SS, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s HS (MI)

Alex Mooney was a 10-12 year-old when he first started travel ball. And even back then he was talked highly about among all baseball circles. This kid eats, sleeps, and breathes baseball. He is a top prep player in the state of Michigan this year, and his approach to the game is very steady. There is no glitz or glam. He is mature beyond his years, and does just about everything the right way.


26. Minnesota Twins: Jonathan Cannon, RHP, Georgia

While taking a backseat to Georgia’s hailed ace Emerson Hancock, Cannon quietly put together a nice collegiate career. He’s built up his velocity to match his 6’6″ frame, and he’s still getting a feel for his breaking stuff. If he can clear COVID requirements, Cannon should pick up where he left off.


27. San Diego Padres: Mason Pelio, RHP, Boston College

Mason Pelio is a name that wasn’t even on this list a few months ago. Now I’ve seen him in the top-20 in more mocks than I can’ count and I can see why. Boston College has some special talent this year, and Pelio leads the staff. Fastball can hit 97 MPH, but his changeup could very well be his plus pitch. His breaking pitches aren’t too hot though.


28. Tampa Bay Rays: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb (GA)

His bat speed is among the best in the class. He has a smooth stroke and is as athletic as they come at the backstop. Hard to say if he’ll sign if he falls out of the first round. Whenever he does make the pros, he’ll stick to catcher. He can also play some outfield, too.


29. Los Angeles Dodgers: Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland HS (NJ)

Of the many big-bodies pitchers in this years class, Petty isn’t one of them but he has pure stuff, no doubt about it.

30. Houston: Forfeits their pick.

[Sexymarinersfan]

MLB's Jim Callis and Johnathan Mayo releases new Mock Draft for 2021, picks 1-20.

1) Pirates (Callis): Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt -- It feels like a four-man race to go No. 1 right now, but give me the guy who’s dominating the Southeastern Conference and can pitch off his fastball like few can.

2) Rangers (Mayo): Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (Texas) -- Callis taking Leiter made this easier as I feel Lawlar’s the next best player in the class right now as a five-tool player at a premium position.

3) Tigers (Callis): Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (Chula Vista, Calif.) -- I almost went back-to-back Vanderbilt pitchers, but Mayer’s sweet left-handed swing and smooth shortstop play were too much to pass up.

4) Red Sox (Mayo): Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt -- No way I was going to let Rocker go further than this, not with that ridiculous fastball-slider combination that comes from his intimidating 6-foot-5 frame.

5) Orioles (Callis): Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow HS (Winder, Ga.) -- He has big-time power and arm strength and could be a more athletic/higher contact version of Joey Gallo.

6) D-backs (Mayo): Henry Davis, C, Louisville -- He’s risen to the top of the college bat crop by hitting over .400 with power this spring, combining that with a plus arm behind the plate lands him firmly in top 10 talk.

7) Royals (Callis): Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall (Oklahoma City, Okla.) -- High school right-handers come with risk, but this one might have the best combination of pure stuff and command in the entire Draft.

8) Rockies (Mayo): Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College -- He has the chance to be a plus hitter with an advanced approach, with his plus speed helping him on the basepaths and in center field.

9) Angels (Callis): Ty Madden, RHP, Texas -- He offers stuff, strikes and strength, making him a good bet to be a big league starter.

10) Mets (Mayo): Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Mississippi -- We’re talking a four-pitch mix from a 6-foot-4 frame here, with all his stuff ticking upward this spring.

2021 Draft: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP
11) Nationals (Callis): Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (N.C.) HS -- He plays bigger than his size (5-foot-9, 178 pounds) and could have solid tools across the board.

12) Mariners (Mayo): Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian Academy (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.) -- Some might see this as a reach, but I like high school guys with size (he’s 6-foot-6), good stuff and a feel for pitching.

13) Phillies (Callis): Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston -- Already established as one of college baseball’s better hitters, he’s proving he can hit for power and stay in center field.

14) Giants (Mayo): Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami (Ohio) -- Rolling the dice on the power stuff here and that what he’s done this year is legit, with a fastball-slider combination that have gotten 80 grades from scouts on occasion.

15) Brewers (Callis): Adrian del Castillo, C, Miami -- His numbers may be down a bit, but he still combines power and patience like few players can in this crop and he has a chance to catch.

16) Marlins (Mayo): Matt McLain, SS, UCLA -- Once close to the top of the list, McLain started off the season very slowly, with too many strikeouts, but has righted the ship of late with a 10-game hitting streak.

2021 Draft: Matt McLain, SS
17) Reds (Callis): Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State -- Clearly the best left-hander in the Draft, he’s an underrated talent with the best changeup in this class.

18) Cardinals (Mayo): Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land HS (Lewisberry, Pa.) -- Huge tools and upside, with incredible raw power, all of which comes with some swing-and-miss risk.

19) Blue Jays (Callis): Harry Ford, C, North Cobb HS (Kennesaw, Ga.) -- An athletic catcher, he runs a 6.42-second 60 and could play almost anywhere on the diamond, and he also offers plenty of bat speed and power potential.

20) Yankees (Mayo): Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East HS (East Amherst, N.Y.) -- There's a run on prep catchers, which is a tough profile, but Mack can really catch and throw with a chance to hit for average and power.

I like Andrew Painter as a prospect, but it's hard for me to get on board with the Mariners investing in a prep pitcher when their window of contention is almost now. I'd rather take Sam Bachman, Ryan Cusick, Matt McLain or Jordan Wicks before I drafted Painter. Painter is basically last years "Mick Abel", who i was absolutely in love with! I wouldn't be mad if we drafted Andrew, I just can't see the M's pulling the trigger on him at 12.

[D-train]

I know we should be drafting BPA but another college pitcher would be a head scratcher none the less.

[Coeurd’Alene J]

An interesting article at Lookout Landing on Joshua Baez. Very intriguing player.


https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2021/4/1 ... oshua-baez


Lots to like there, maybe to raw for us, but I love a fighter

[Sexymarinersfan]

An interesting article at Lookout Landing on Joshua Baez. Very intriguing player.


https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2021/4/1 ... oshua-baez


Lots to like there, maybe to raw for us, but I love a fighter

I read that. You're right it, it was an excellent read. I like Joe Doyle over at LL. He's the only one over there that I do.

[Sexymarinersfan]

I know we should be drafting BPA but another college pitcher would be a head scratcher none the less.

Well, if the board falls differently I'm all for taking the BPA, you know me. The thing about pitching though is you can never have enough. Its cheaper to draft and develop you're own. Its the most expensive and has the highest value in just about any trade. So yeah, it'd be a bummer, but if a pitcher is the hands down BPA, you gotta take him.

[Sexymarinersfan]

I know we should be drafting BPA but another college pitcher would be a head scratcher none the less.

I've heard comps on Sal Frelick to Jarred Kelenic, but he's quickly rising up mock drafts into the Top 10. I prefer an infielder such as Marcelo Mayer, Khalil Watson, Brady House, or maybe even Matt McLain(Ian Kinsler?) This isn't a good year to be drafting a hitter, which is why I think Henry Davis goes in the Top 3. Adrian Del Castillo is a great hitter that probably can't stick behind the plate, (1B/Dh?). Jaden Hill is a clone of Kumar Rocker, a workhorse with great stuff, but he's been injured, TWICE! Otherwise he was looking like a Top 5.

[Sexymarinersfan]

MLB.com just released their full updated Mock Draft. They have Seattle taking Adrian Del Castillo at #12. I like his bat enough, but the kid won't stick at catcher. Maybe he winds up at 1B/DH. I love prep hitting SS Khalil Watson, even though he's 5'9. I also would take pitchers Gunnar Hoglund, Jordan Wicks, and Andrew Painter over Del Castillo if this was how the board fell. Hoglund is a Top 10 lock if he bounces back. He was a scratch from his last start. And don't sleep on LSU's Ace Jaden Hill. He was looking like a mirror clone of Kumar Rocker before they shut him down for the season due to TJ surgery. The ball just explodes out of that kids hand.

The 2021 MLB Draft is still 11 weeks away, and there’s a tremendous amount still unknown and to be decided in terms of who goes where in the first round. But that won’t stop us from trying to guess.

“Guess” might be the operative word in this first mock draft of the season. Jim Callis and I will alternate in trying to bring you the best projections we can, with the hope that the ones we post right before the July 11 Draft come as close to getting it right as we can.

• Top 150 Draft Prospects

For this first go-round, I tried to run names by as many teams and scouting director types as possible. The main objective: to have names in each spot that make some sense and are feasible, so I kept permutations for each team to a minimum (There are simply too many at this point.). Consider this a snapshot of names that could land in the first round, with the plan to bring that picture into greater focus as we get closer to the Draft.


1) Pirates: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
This long before the Draft, teams picking in the top spot will always do due diligence and evaluate a fairly large group of players. For the Pirates, that might mean more than six. Leiter is certainly in that mix, though he picked up his first loss of the season on Saturday.

2021 Draft: Jack Leiter, RHP
2) Rangers: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (Texas)
Lawlar remains the top prep player on most boards and is still definitely in the mix to go No. 1 overall. Texas has gone college bat in the first round the last two Drafts, but there isn’t one who fits here.

3) Tigers: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
After scuffling very briefly, Rocker has gone back to dominating the SEC, and it’s fun imagining him joining Mize, Skubal, Manning et al.

4) Red Sox: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (Calif.)
The Red Sox would love one of those top three to be here, particularly Leiter or Lawlar, which could easily happen if Mayer goes above.

5) Orioles: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow HS (Ga.)
House had entered last summer as the front-runner top pick, had an up-and-down showing, but righted the ship this spring, with his name starting to pop up at least as high as right above this pick.

6) D-backs: Henry Davis, C, Louisville
Davis has separated himself a bit as the top college bat, hitting over or close to .400 with power all year, while showing he should be fine behind the plate. This is also the first spot I’m hearing Oklahoma high school right-hander Jackson Jobe’s name.

7) Royals: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
Some worry about Frelick’s size (he’s 5-foot-9), but he’s hit consistently and shown he can play center field longterm.

8) Rockies: Ty Madden, RHP, Texas
If the Rockies go college arm here, it could also be Gunnar Hoglund, but I moved him down because he was scratched from his start this weekend.

9) Angels: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State
The Angels have gone the college route in the first round for the last two years, and while Sam Houston State isn’t a huge program, Cowser’s hit for average and power all spring.

10) Mets: Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest
Another Hoglund potential spot should he come back fully healthy, but Cusick shows premium velocity and an improved breaking ball.

11) Nationals: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS (Okla.)
A lot of people think Jobe goes in the top 10, as he’s separated himself as clearly the best prep arm in this class.

12) Mariners: Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami
Thought to perhaps be the best pure hitter in the Draft class, Del Castillo has scuffled a bit, but there’s enough track record with him to believe he can figure it out at the next level, even if you’re not sure he can stick behind the plate.

13) Phillies: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Mississippi
Hoglund is the wild card of the week because of the missed start. If he bounces back fine, he likely doesn’t make it this far.

14) Giants: Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State
It’s been three straight college bats in the first round for the Giants, so keep an eye out there. For now, this will be where Wicks, the best college lefty in the class, lands.

15) Brewers: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest HS (NC)
Watson’s name starts popping up as high as the middle of the top 10, but I’m starting cautiously because he’s barely gotten his spring season going.

16) Marlins: Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian Academy (Fla.)
Painter hasn’t dominated as much as some would have liked to see, but he’s still 6-foot-6 with good stuff and feel for pitching. Plus, who doesn’t love the hometown-team-drafting-you storyline?

17) Reds: Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land HS (Pa.)
He has as loud tools as anyone, especially raw power-wise, though not everyone loves his swing and the strikeout risk.

18) Cardinals: Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland Regional HS (NJ)
Yes, he’s not the biggest guy in the world, but he’s touching triple digits and has a better feel for pitching than you’d expect for an undersized guy with power stuff.

19) Blue Jays: Bubba Chandler, RHP/SS, North Oconee HS (Ga.)
Chandler’s become one of the most fascinating players in this Draft. Most feel he belongs on the mound, but maybe there’s a team willing to let him hit to feel things out.

20) Yankees: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
Let’s make it two college bats in a row for the Yankees, who took Austin Wells in 2020. McLain started the season incredibly slowly, otherwise he’d be in the conversation much higher than this.

21) Cubs: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb HS (Ga.)
Ford has an intriguing set of all-around tools, with the ability to really hit and the skills to stick behind the plate, though he’s quick and athletic enough to move elsewhere if needed.

22) White Sox: Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami (Ohio)
At times this spring, Bachman has shown off 80-grade fastballs and sliders (on the 20-to-80 scouting scale). The White Sox certainly haven’t shied away from power college arms (Garrett Crochet, Zack Burdi, Carson Fulmer, Carlos Rodón) in the past.

23) Indians: Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East HS (NY)
The Indians aren’t afraid of taking high school players they think can hit, and Mack has shown he can do that, with power to come, all with having the tools to stick behind the plate.

24) Braves: Joshua Baez, OF, Dexter Southfield HS (Mass.)
Yes, there are some swing-and-miss concerns, but the tools are very loud, from his raw power to his arm and teams absolutely love his makeup.

25) A's: Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork HS (SC)
He plays football (and will keep doing so if he goes to Clemson), he wrestles, he can really run and he can hit. What’s not to like?

26) Twins: Ethan Wilson, OF, South Alabama
He can hit, with power, and draws a ton of walks. The Twins have shown they like college performers, with picks like Aaron Sabato and Trevor Larnach in their recent first-round history.

27) Padres: James Wood, OF, IMG Academy (Fla.)
Wood had an overall great summer against good competition on the showcase circuit, which moved him up higher than this, but he scuffled at the plate at the start of the spring. Still, a team could bet on his very loud tools before this slot.

28) Rays: Michael McGreevy, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
This is the area of the Draft where the “safer” college arms come in and tend to creep up as the Draft gets closer. McGreevy has an intriguing combination of feel for pitching and some upside.

29) Dodgers: Peyton Stovall, 2B, Haughton HS (La.)
The Dodgers have definitely been scouting Stovall, and while he might be limited defensively, he could go higher as one of the best pure prep bats in the class.

[bpj]

Thanks for putting in all the effort to highlight these guys Big Sexy.