The Mariners Mid-Season Master Plan

[bpj]

So here is my analysis of where the Mariners stand about a third of the way through the season -- the good, the bad, and what the M's could do in the coming weeks if their fortunes don't turn around. I'll admit upfront that some of this may be premature. We are only a third of the way in, and these are my initial reactions to what has been a frustratingly lackluster season. The reality is that a few small tweaks, combined with genuine hope that Cal and Brendan return healthy and with something to prove, could change the calculus considerably.

**The Strengths**

Seattle currently boasts the 10th best starting rotation in baseball with a stellar 3.89 ERA, anchored by exceptional frontline stability from Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Bryan Woo. On offense, Randy Arozarena is slashing .299 with a .390 OBP, while Luke Raley leads the team with 10 home runs and a .562 slugging percentage. The bullpen has been equally impressive, led by closer Andrés Muñoz, ranking 6th in the majors with an elite 3.17 ERA and further reinforced by the return of Matt Brash. Adding the right veteran arm would completely bridge the high-leverage gap to Muñoz.

**The Weaknesses**

The DH/backup catcher situation is a real problem. Mitch Garver is slumping well below the Mendoza line with a disappointing .638 OPS, and Rob Refsnyder has stalled out and failed to provide the offensive depth he was signed to deliver. There's also clubhouse friction worth noting: frontline starters are increasingly venting frustration over the team's six-man approach and piggyback roles. Sadly, there is not much we can do about Garver - backup catchers don't grow on trees, and anything we would trade for (realistically) would be as bad or worse than Garver. We just stay the course with him until Cal gets back, and hope like hell Cal figures his swing out again.

**Who's Cruising, Who's Bruising**

Randy Arozarena (.856 OPS), Luke Raley (10 HR), and Julio Rodríguez (.261, 8 HR, 21 RBIs) continue to carry the heavy load. On the other side, Cal Raleigh was enduring a brutal slump, sitting at .161, before landing on the 10-day IL on May 14 with a Grade 1 right oblique strain. Both he and Brendan Donovan are worth watching as turnaround candidates. Raleigh is progressing with light baseball activity, and a mental and physical reset ahead of an anticipated June return could spark his bat. Donovan, sidelined with a left groin strain, received a PRP injection and is targeting an early June return to baseball activities as well.

**The Proposed Strategic Pivot: Rotation Stability and Offensive Spark**

We are at a crossroads. Rather than forcing lopsided trades for our starters, we have the internal and trade-market flexibility to fix our weaknesses without gutting our future.

*Transition to a Performance-Based "5+1" Rotation.* The current six-man rotation is stifling our starters' rhythm and creating unnecessary logjams. The fix is a primary five-man rotation with the sixth roster spot functioning as a "bridge" arm, a high-leverage long reliever who provides essential length for the bullpen and stays stretched out to cover spot starts or injuries. Emerson Hancock is the ideal candidate for this role. With a 3.07 ERA and 60 strikeouts in 58.2 innings this season, he has earned his place in the mix, and this arrangement keeps Gilbert, Kirby, Woo, Miller, and Castillo on their preferred schedule. More importantly, it creates a true meritocracy: if any member of the primary five struggles or shows fatigue, the bridge arm is ready to step in without the inefficiency of a rigid six-man rotation that leaves the bullpen short-handed -- and hopefully this puts to rest the frustration our starters have been feeling about the piggyback situation once and for all.

*Acquire Antonio Senzatela from the Rockies.* Senzatela has been excellent (elite?) out of the bullpen in 2026, posting a 1.13 ERA and 0.78 WHIP through roughly 32 innings, and would be a strong veteran addition for high-leverage or multi-inning work behind Muñoz and Brash.

**The Proposed Deal**
**Mariners receive:** RHP Antonio Senzatela
**Rockies receive:** RHP Teddy McGraw · OF Korbyn Dickerson · ~$2-3M cash

The Rockies are in full rebuild mode, this lets them shed salary and acquire mid-tier prospects with upside, and it gives Seattle immediate bullpen depth without surrendering elite prospect capital. The main downside is absorbing most of his ~$12M salary and some injury history, but it's a short-term rental with a club option for 2027, and this feels like a very realistic mid-season deal the Mariners could actually pull off. To clear a roster spot, we DFA Alex Hoppe and don't look back.

*Promote Brock Rodden.* The DH platoon production is no longer sustainable. Rodden is mashing in the Pacific Coast League, his power-contact profile, switch-hitting flexibility, and recent power surge are exactly the thump the lineup needs. Promote him to the active 26-man roster immediately. To clear the spot, we DFA Rob Refsnyder, eat his contract, and move on. He's been a liability all season and that roster spot needs to go to someone who can actually contribute to a postseason run.

**The Bottom Line**

None of this needs to be drastic. A tweaked rotation structure, one realistic trade, and a promotion that is already overdue -- that's it. If Cal comes back locked in and Brendan returns healthy, this team looks considerably different in June than it does right now. The pitching is real, the core of the lineup is real, and the bullpen is close to where it needs to be. Let's make the small moves that give this roster a legitimate chance to find out what it actually is.

Good post with a lot of original thought put into it Big Maple.

I wish Dipoto put this much thought into decisions. Instead it seems like his analysis starts and ends with "How does this player fit in a Righty/Lefty platoon on paper?"*

*then he checks his hair in the mirror

[D-train]

Screenshot 2026-05-24 161652.png

Of course I would do that in a heartbeat.

But because it works in an algorithm doesn’t mean it would in reality. There is zero probability of tjat trade working and slightly less than zero that any trade involving Castillo would work, even if you toss in prospects and ate half his contract.

Mariners management doesn’t work like that.

But damn, I’d love Yordan.

When I posted that on X before the M's arrived in Sacramento I prefaced by saying it was a trade that would never happen in a million years but it was a lot more fun to come up with crazy trades than to watch M's games at that point.....

[Big_Maple]

Good post with a lot of original thought put into it Big Maple.

I wish Dipoto put this much thought into decisions. Instead it seems like his analysis starts and ends with "How does this player fit in a Righty/Lefty platoon on paper?"*

*then he checks his hair in the mirror

Thanks, bpj. I did put some thought into it.

I expect that Dipoto does put thought into his decisions. He's just wrong more often than he's right.

If he was right, I'd agree with him.

[Big_Maple]

When I posted that on X before the M's arrived in Sacramento I prefaced by saying it was a trade that would never happen in a million years but it was a lot more fun to come up with crazy trades than to watch M's games at that point.....

We need thump. Yordan has thump to spare. The Astros are not contenders this year. There are lots of reasons this would work on paper.

But I doubt management would do it, and I doubt the Stros would trade their best player, who has 3 years left on his contract, to a division rival.

I keep seeing buzz around a Tarik Skubal these days. The Tigers are nearly dead last in the AL Central, and they are at 22-34 a third of the way into the season. Seems a Skubal trade is inevitable. This would anchor the M's rotation, but I don't think their rotation needs a major fix, and I would not want to drain the farm for 3 months of a guy who only plays 1 out of every 5 games. I'd rather see them do it for 2 1/12 years of Yordan.

[D-train]

Good post with a lot of original thought put into it Big Maple.

I wish Dipoto put this much thought into decisions. Instead it seems like his analysis starts and ends with "How does this player fit in a Righty/Lefty platoon on paper?"*

*then he checks his hair in the mirror

Thanks, bpj. I did put some thought into it.

I expect that Dipoto does put thought into his decisions. He's just wrong more often than he's right.

If he was right, I'd agree with him.

I also agree but he probably thinks about his hair more. ha

[Big_Maple]

I also agree but he probably thinks about his hair more. ha

He and Castillo - they spend a lot of time preening, gelling, braiding and styling.

[Captain 97]

When I posted that on X before the M's arrived in Sacramento I prefaced by saying it was a trade that would never happen in a million years but it was a lot more fun to come up with crazy trades than to watch M's games at that point.....

We need thump. Yordan has thump to spare. The Astros are not contenders this year. There are lots of reasons this would work on paper.

But I doubt management would do it, and I doubt the Stros would trade their best player, who has 3 years left on his contract, to a division rival.

I keep seeing buzz around a Tarik Skubal these days. The Tigers are nearly dead last in the AL Central, and they are at 22-34 a third of the way into the season. Seems a Skubal trade is inevitable. This would anchor the M's rotation, but I don't think their rotation needs a major fix, and I would not want to drain the farm for 3 months of a guy who only plays 1 out of every 5 games. I'd rather see them do it for 2 1/12 years of Yordan.

Why not both? If you trade off Kirby for Yordan you will need someone to replace him.

[D-train]

I also agree but he probably thinks about his hair more. ha

He and Castillo - they spend a lot of time preening, gelling, braiding and styling.

Did you see this commentary from my Dad who was 85 yo at the time. He didn't understand that I had online access to the Seattle times when I lived in Boston so he would cut out clippings from the newspaper and Mail them to me. lol

Screenshot 2026-05-28 093012.png (1.13 MiB) Viewed 139 times

[Captain 97]

Its kind of a shame that the division is so horrible this year. The M's suck and probably aren't going deep in the playoffs. We need some actual legitimate hitting prospects on this team. We have some highly rated guys but they are all 170 pound middle infielders. We need to find the next Nick Kurtz to supplement that. The logical thing to do would be to trade Randy for a haul while he is hot and trade Gilbert as well. Can't really justify doing that when you are in first place though.

[Big_Maple]

Why not both? If you trade off Kirby for Yordan you will need someone to replace him.

It's so simple and so obvious, it might just work!!

Either one of these moves would be too bold for the Mariners - so if they orchestrated both, I’d have a seizure and shit out the Bremerton ferry, passengers included.