Evan White - the future gets him 6 yrs/$24 mil, up to $55 mil

[Petert]

I like it. In the quest to maximize return, MLB has gone to a very odds-on approach, and a roll of the dice. But really, it’s not different from any other multi-year contract. Any player can tank (God knows we’ve seen our share in Seattle), or be sidelined by injury.

Make the investment on a much lower scale. It’s a good risk.

[Donn Beach]

Curious move to say the least. The guy hasn't even made it past AA and you are going to give him a 6 year guaranteed deal for 24 Million?

Lets look at some hypotheticals.
1. White never makes it as an everyday player = you just blew 24 Million
2. If White comes up and and is an average run of the mill player and if you hadn't done this he would play 3 years at 500k then maybe make 2M,3M, 4M in arbitration In which case you just blew about 13 Million
3. If white becomes an above average player and you hadn't done this you would pay him 3 years at $500k and he gets 5M 7M 9M in arbitration. In which case you are about even but you have 3 years of favorable options
4. He becomes an phenom and makes super 2. If you hadn't done this you pay him 500k for 2 years and then pay him 5M 9M 13M 17M in arbitration. You make out like a bandit in this but you probably end up with an extremely disgruntled player that you have to renegotiate with anyway.

It seems to me like the risks outweigh the rewards especially for a player who has a Minor League OPS below .850

On top of this you are basically starting his service clock now by giving him this deal. If he is not ready you are going to be paying him 4 Million a year to be toiling away in the minors and you will have less control time when he gets to the bigs.

Number one doesn't exist, you can't save the entire $24 mil even without the agreement, you are still going to be paying him. Its more like number 2, he was going to come up and get his 1,500 at bats even without the deal, and he is going to get paid for that. So you have bought the three options for like an additional $10-15 mil, as well as developed a relationship with the player going forward. It turns on their view of him, obviously they like him, they have committed to his 1,500 at bats. The money involved doesn't seem like a big risk to me. I think this is the model for teams in general going forward. Identify the players early you want to commit to and tie them up, try to buy out FA seasons. Turns on their ability to identify the correct players, the blew it with Marte, it was the Dbacks that managed it last season with a contract that bought two seasons of FA, they did it correctly, see if the Mariners did with White

[Juliooooo]

I like Evan White, but this is a really weird move. Why not at least wait until he plays some mlb

[Donn Beach]

what it is really is playing FA in reverse, FA is betting on a 31 year old player maintaining their performance, this is betting on a 23 year old's developing his performance. It remains to be seen which is the better gamble, but it doesn't seem bizarre to me to bet on one rather than the other. The $15 mil or whatever it is at stake doesn't seem a large sum compared to what it buys you in FA

[Hanjag]

I don't like it at all.

[Juliooooo]

Just read up a little more on the deal so I now understand it a bit better. Not as bad as I originally thought. Yeah it's a risk, but could be a big money saver in time.

[Donn Beach]

the other thing is his defense probably gives them a cushion, have a fall back if his bat doesn't play at first base. I know some kick and scream about defense, but it is a safer bet than projecting offense. Even as a fourth outfielder he would have some value. Something a first base only player wouldn't offer and could be a reason they were comfortable with the contract.

[Hanjag]

There was zero motivation to make this deal.

Marco was another they just gave a 400k raise to for no reason.

[D-train]

You already had him under control for the next 6 years anyway though....

1st base men who put up an .838 OPS in AA are a dime a dozen.

And this is the same thing they thought of DJ Peterson. This just doesn't make much sense and hopefully they're not going to start doing this with everyone they like at the AA level.

It's a gamble for sure. But one that won't burn the M's if Evan doesn't turn out to be the player they think he's going to be. So while I do see y'alls perspectives, what happens he breaks out and becomes Peter Alfonso lite? The deal could be a bargain for 2 extra potential years of his service.

The same could be said of Kikuchi's contract. But good points all around.

Yes, and hopefully it starts better than that disaster. Interesting to me to he is the guy that gets the deal. Seems almost like a PR deal saying, "look how well the rebuild is going".

[D-train]

I like Evan White, but this is a really weird move. Why not at least wait until he plays some mlb

If the did that and he came out of the gates like Lewis then it would cost more to lock him up.