I guess Genius can be lost

[Donn Beach]

Plus, it is like flipping a coin. Fifty Fifty doesn't mean that when one flip is heads the next will be tails. It means on each flip there is a fifty fifty chance. Riverboat Roan, the idiot that he is, doesn't realize that and I guess read that as every other time I go for two I will get it. Fifty fifty each time....and since these are all taken as one mass number, do you really think the times that really good QBs playing on really good offenses will skew that number? Carolina not only does not have a really good Qb, their mediocre at best QB doesn't play on a really good offense. They are one McCaffrey injury from going on a long losing streak. It was a dumb ass decision.

Yeah, that was my point. On million coin flips and you are going to between 49.9% and 50.1%. With two coin flips you have just as good a chance to get two heads or two tails as a split.

yup, it is just a coin flip, but you have the chance to score twice as many points with it, sometimes that comes in handy. Its not as obvious in this case as others but its there. Its interesting really, its a function of the combination of events. PATs are not a sure thing either, not since they moved them back. With a PAT you are playing the odds for a tie and with a 2 pointer you are playing them for a win, in that case it makes sense to go for the win. If you guys don't see it that's fine, but if Shanahan was correct to try and play for the win, Rivera was too

[D-train]

so how about Rivera going for 2 down 8 points with 10 minutes left in the game?...

i also addressed this a couple days ago on a different thread. in short i favored it, even without knowing the analytics backed me up. the advantage i cited is that it provides more options if successful (down 6 means you could kick two field goals to tie instead of needing end zone). and if unsuccessful, could the single point could still be made up with a later TD and 2-point conversion. the more options doesnt just help you on offense, can also influence opponent play-calling strategy.

hadn't thought about 2 point conversions, probably should be used more than they are, if it was baseball they probably would be

You hadn't thought about 2 point conversions? That is what we have been talking about. What have you been talking about???

[Donn Beach]

i also addressed this a couple days ago on a different thread. in short i favored it, even without knowing the analytics backed me up. the advantage i cited is that it provides more options if successful (down 6 means you could kick two field goals to tie instead of needing end zone). and if unsuccessful, could the single point could still be made up with a later TD and 2-point conversion. the more options doesnt just help you on offense, can also influence opponent play-calling strategy.

hadn't thought about 2 point conversions, probably should be used more than they are, if it was baseball they probably would be

You hadn't thought about 2 point conversions? That is what we have been talking about. What have you been talking about???

I meant in general, they probably should be getting used a lot more than they are. The rule was changed but it isn't getting taken advantage of as much as it should be. If it was baseball teams probably be more aggressive about it. We rip PC for being too conservative with his fourth down calls, its the same sort of thing.

[Donn Beach]

OT...but you see this? this is nuts!...it just is

https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment- ... W8Q87abom0

[D-train]

OT...but you see this? this is nuts!...it just is

https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment- ... W8Q87abom0

Wow. Who knew! I loved model trains as a kid and still set up a Christmas train every year.

[Donn Beach]

that just goes beyond anything i have ever imagined with a model railroad, that is an alternate universe

[57reasons]

so how about Rivera going for 2 down 8 points with 10 minutes left in the game?...

i also addressed this a couple days ago on a different thread. in short i favored it, even without knowing the analytics backed me up. the advantage i cited is that it provides more options if successful (down 6 means you could kick two field goals to tie instead of needing end zone). and if unsuccessful, could the single point could still be made up with a later TD and 2-point conversion. the more options doesnt just help you on offense, can also influence opponent play-calling strategy.

More options? Down 8 you have one option.

it was 24-10 when they hit paydirt, so now 24-16 before the PAT or 2-point try. that's the case where i agreed with Rivera's decision to go for 2 - if you miss, still down 8 and technically a one score game. if you convert, down 6 and options available as you can tie with 2 field goals, or win with a TD and PAT. If instead you kick the PAT to change the score from 24-16 to 24-17, you then dont have the 2 field goal option to tie, you are relegated to needing a TD. the options part only add value if there is enough time on the clock still for 2 possessions, such as i think there was in this case.

[Michael K.]

So, you’d rather risk having to go for two twice to tie, rather than kick twice to tie? I don’t get it.

If Rivera had come out and said he liked the plays they had drawn up and wanted to go for the win on the road I still would have said that’s fine, go for two on the second TD....if you still feel that way when and if you score it. Forcing your hand was stupid. Hell, by passing OT, in my opinion, for a play that is a coin flip, is stupid!

[57reasons]

So, you’d rather risk having to go for two twice to tie, rather than kick twice to tie? I don’t get it.

If Rivera had come out and said he liked the plays they had drawn up and wanted to go for the win on the road I still would have said that’s fine, go for two on the second TD....if you still feel that way when and if you score it. Forcing your hand was stupid. Hell, by passing OT, in my opinion, for a play that is a coin flip, is stupid!

if it was just that then it's essentially a wash, but you're ignoring the other benefits i mentioned, but no matter - the advantage is slight, could only be evidenced over a large large sample size.

[Michael K.]

A wash? If you miss, which is a fifty fifty chance...you then have a fifty fifty chance to lose the next time. Kick it twice you go to OT. I am not glossing over any advantages...simply saying the risk isn’t worth the reward.