Virus Schmirus

[Oso Dorado]

Would need to add almost 100k a day to do that. Not happening. Baseball will start in June.

Well, as I type this, I am seeing the U.S. with 104,463 cases. It wouldn't go up by 100K a day, it would go up by 25% per day to make that number (okay, 25.5)
104463, 131101, 164,531, 206,487, 259142, 325223, 408,155, 512234, 642,853, 806,781, 1,012,511. That's how you get to 1 million in 10 days. I'm seeing some slight decrease in the growth rate, so I am hoping this doesn't happen. Face it, summer without baseball is not right. But...
My money would be on the U.S. reaching the million case mark by tax day at least. I am not seeing the coordinated effort needed to do otherwise.

Darren, I hope I am wrong and you are right, but that is how things look to me.

[Donn Beach]

here is an article on the topic, the coronavirus impact on sporting events. The situation in Italy by the way has been possibly linked to a soccer match. This is the deal to me, what I grapple with, social distancing is fine and dandy but there is no end game to it, its flattening the curve but its not eliminating it, it not a cure. There are sound reasons for flattening the curve but it doesn't lead to everything being fine and dandy in a few weeks, it just doesn't. It slows the crisis, but it also is going to lengthen it. There are all sort of events this thing will impact, heck the election campaign. I wonder how they are going to wind down social distancing in the first place, what it will be based on, let alone major sporting events.

The weapon of choice against the coronavirus for most states and municipalities is social distancing, a strategy lauded by disease specialists, but also one fraught with ambiguity on the back end.

After all, the statistical curve of infections and fatalities may flatten, but it won’t disappear, a concept the leagues must wrestle with in assembling groups of more than 50 – merely to play – let alone congregating thousands of fans.

“We’re not going to have a clear playing field when it’s over,” says Waldman. “With the magnitude of this and the way it’s behaving, people have to realize this approach we’re using will lengthen the period of time in which the virus is transmitted.

“If we have fewer people infected in the short term, it’s going to result in people being infected for a longer period. It’s the choice we’ve made. How that plays out at the other end of the curve, I’m afraid to say we don’t know. When you press down on the peak, it spreads out.”

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/2 ... 919534001/

[Oso Dorado]

Three reasons why "flattening the curve" makes sense:

1) When the peak is lower, hospitals don't get overloaded. If those that need treatment can get treatment, less people die.
2) Buying time for supply chains. Right now there are shortages of masks, gloves, gowns and test kits. The more slowly the contagion propagates, the more time for these shortages to be remedied,
3). The real end to this comes when we have herd immunity. That means 60%-80% have antibodies or we have a vaccine, or at least a medicine that makes Covid-19 treatable. That takes time. Flattening the curve buys us that time.
Patience is not always an easy thing. No matter how this plays out, there will be major economic damage. Shuttered businesses are a drag on the economy, medical care costs money, people dying costs money, sick time costs money and impacts businesses too. There are no easy roads here.
I have faith in people to persevere. In Toronto, there are volunteers supporting health care workers....providing child care, doing shopping, and more. People pull together in times of crisis. We'll get through this, but it will not be easy.
Sorry for being heavy. Be well.

[Donn Beach]

I agree, the virus is going to enter the mainstream of flu like diseases we are faced with, we need to do it in an orderly fashion. The deal with that is its going to take months not weeks to play out. We have entered into this for legitimate reasons, I don't care what Trump says, there are no easy answers for moving on from it again.

[Coeurd’Alene J]

In order for this crisis to pass. Will require herd immunity and a vaccine Ron is right hopefully social distancing buys us time to get the vaccine. We are going to have a front row view to herd immunity on a grand scale with our southern neighbours Mexico has stuck their head in the sand and we shall see what happens when you just let nature run it’s course. Maybe tamales have the secret ingredient. And Bruce we already knew you didn’t care what Trump said.

[Donn Beach]

Mexican protesters shut border with the States, demand crackdown on Americans crossing the border

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52053656

[Coeurd’Alene J]

Mexican protesters shut border with the States, demand crackdown on Americans crossing the border

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52053656

Saw that, The president of Mexico doesn’t have a clue, I predict a bigger problem there than Italy by far

[D-train]

Mexican protesters shut border with the States, demand crackdown on Americans crossing the border

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52053656

Racists!!!

[D-train]

Would need to add almost 100k a day to do that. Not happening. Baseball will start in June.

Well, as I type this, I am seeing the U.S. with 104,463 cases. It wouldn't go up by 100K a day, it would go up by 25% per day to make that number (okay, 25.5)
104463, 131101, 164,531, 206,487, 259142, 325223, 408,155, 512234, 642,853, 806,781, 1,012,511. That's how you get to 1 million in 10 days. I'm seeing some slight decrease in the growth rate, so I am hoping this doesn't happen. Face it, summer without baseball is not right. But...
My money would be on the U.S. reaching the million case mark by tax day at least. I am not seeing the coordinated effort needed to do otherwise.

Darren, I hope I am wrong and you are right, but that is how things look to me.

Couple things missing. 1st the recoveries which only are 2500 right now are going to start escalating significantly. Secondly the hardcore shelter in place mandates are going to start having an impact. They have only been in effect about a week. This should have a huge impact on the the number of active cases which is what we should be focused on. That said, the Easter date is looking like fantasy at this point.

[D-train]

Note here how few cases are two weeks old or more. These recoveries aren't even making a dent in the total active cases because they are dwarfed but the new cases. But in about a week as 99% of those people recover and at the same time new cases begin to slow due to the social distancing and shelter in place mandates have an impact we will start to see a light at the end of the tunnel representing an actual decline of active cases.

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