I think Harris has the edge but by no means am I very confident. I was way more confident in the Biden election, as evident by my posts.
Why I think Harris will win:
1. I think pollsters are dramatically underestimating how the youth and woman turnout will impact the race. The bulk of them are fully against Trump and are more motivated than ever. Women played a large part in the erasure of the "red wave" in 2022 where polls and betting markets were also wrong. Young people love Harris and think she/Walz take them into consideration. There are HUGE marketing campaigns on TikTok from the Harris/Walz ticket and they are quite popular.
2. Trump's base is more or less unchanging... I don't think he's done much to sway new voters towards himself and most reporting is that independent voters have been more likely break toward Harris. The Republican strategy has been to paint the last 4 years as the worst thing that has ever happened to the world... but I do not believe that non-conservatives share that viewpoint in the slightest. Neutral parties also don't really look back at the Trump presidency as any great success that made their lives categorically better... The optics of his Presidency are also marred by the pandemic... unfair or not.
3. Republicans painted Joe Biden as the 100 year old with dementia as their key strategy for winning the race... now Trump is 78 year old who will be 82 when he leaves office... now he's the guy on stage looking old, falling asleep, speaking about Hanibal Lecter and Arnold Palmer's penis, and calling his incoherent rants the "weave." I feel that people are going to be more motivated by a youthful Harris than the old, tired Trump act.
4. Trump and Vance just lack overall favorability... hell, Trump always has. Difference in 2016 was he represented supposed big shakeup in American politics... his star power motivated people who wanted to shake up the status quo and I think he earned a lot of meme votes. There's reporting that even his campaign didn't think they were going to win and were surprised by the result.
5. I do think people are turned off by Trump's lawlessness... despite the Republican effort to discredit the many legal filings against Trump, I think people understand he's not really a stand up person and I don't think that reality manifested much before the 2016 election.
Why I think Trump has a chance:
1. Republicans are great at messaging and not wavering from their message. When Harris or Walz put something out on X or speak publicly, there's 100+ accounts ready to pounce on them and violently discredit the information. Right-wing media is also extremely sensationalist and I think that message resonates. They're not afraid to send "reporters" and show hosts out there to say pretty off-the-cuff shit about Harris or Walz and then drive that messaging into the sun. I think some people can be swayed if they're exposed to specific messaging long enough and I think Republicans realize that.
2. I think Trump and Harris are running campaigns that are measured by different standards. For whatever reason, I do feel Trump gets a pass on the bulk of the shit that comes out of his mouth where Harris does not. You can hate Harris and what liberalism represents... but in no ways is she any less than qualified than Trump to be President. The woman is a lawyer who passed the California Bar, was a Senator, is the current VP... she's not a moron. Yet (and this is why Republicans are so good as messaging), despite all of her qualifications, the narrative that Harris is incompetent has to be answered constantly by liberals despite a total lack of qualifications for Trump to president. I see, feel, and hear that narrative in media spaces every day... and like I said in the point above... it just might work on a lot of people.
3. Part of the meme of Trump still lives on. Like I said... he has his unchanging base and there are people who are motivated by the crazy shit he does and says. They love it. Perhaps that's still the case and the meme vote lives on to stick it to the status quo. I really don't think the average person pays attention enough to give a shit about policy. Sometimes the loudest, in your face message gets out there and that's how Trump won in 2016. That's how the Trump campaign figures on winning... "THEY'RE EATING YOUR DOGS!!!" works because people are dumb and easily swayed by misinformation.
4. Again on the topic of messaging... points about immigration and inflation have legitimacy... and while I don't think they're as significant as the Trump campaign makes them out to be, they've done a great job of taking those narratives, sticking them directly to Harris, and never wavering from criticism surrounding them.
5. Misogyny and racism live. There are people who will not vote for Harris because she is a woman. There are people who will not vote for Harris because she's black/Indian. It's just the reality. Clinton had a lot of short comings... but I think perhaps the biggest reason she lost is because she's female.
