Get Your Coffee Early Thursday Game Thread ~ 9/19/19

[Juliooooo]

Here's my opinion on the draft pick. I always want the earlier pick. It gives your coach more options. There is probably an 80 % chance that Dipoto gets the same guy at 7 as he would at 6, but it just takes 1 team ahead of you to like the same guy. Look at Kelenic for example. Mariners would have taken him at any point in the draft most likley. Had they been picking 8, they probably don't get him because of the Mets. With Kyle Lewis however, he was probably top 5-6 on their board, and somehow fell to them at 11.

[D-train]

Here's my opinion on the draft pick. I always want the earlier pick. It gives your coach more options. There is probably an 80 % chance that Dipoto gets the same guy at 7 as he would at 6, but it just takes 1 team ahead of you to like the same guy. Look at Kelenic for example. Mariners would have taken him at any point in the draft most likley. Had they been picking 8, they probably don't get him because of the Mets. With Kyle Lewis however, he was probably top 5-6 on their board, and somehow fell to them at 11.

The ideal situation is that all of our prospects currently in the bigs like JP, Lewis, Long et al play great and the filler plays terribly so we lose and get better draft position. But that is probably too much to ask for. Given the choice of Lewis having his current 1.100 OPS and a lower pick or a 400 OPS and a higher pick, I will choose the former all day every day.

[D-train]

This has Crews going 7th and Martin 6th. I have heard better things about Crews than Martin so maybe the curse in disguise of winning is really a blessing in disguise. lol

http://www.mymlbdraft.com/MLB-Mock-Draft

[ice99]

Hey what happened to my private message list?

[Juliooooo]

Here's my opinion on the draft pick. I always want the earlier pick. It gives your coach more options. There is probably an 80 % chance that Dipoto gets the same guy at 7 as he would at 6, but it just takes 1 team ahead of you to like the same guy. Look at Kelenic for example. Mariners would have taken him at any point in the draft most likley. Had they been picking 8, they probably don't get him because of the Mets. With Kyle Lewis however, he was probably top 5-6 on their board, and somehow fell to them at 11.

The ideal situation is that all of our prospects currently in the bigs like JP, Lewis, Long et al play great and the filler plays terribly so we lose and get better draft position. But that is probably too much to ask for. Given the choice of Lewis having his current 1.100 OPS and a lower pick or a 400 OPS and a higher pick, I will choose the former all day every day.

pick 11 isn't out of the question, although unlikely considering they are 4 games down, and still have 3 games against Houston and 3 against Oakland. Pick 6-7 would be great.

[D-train]

Hey what happened to my private message list?

Yeah I was wondering the same.

[Wishhiker]

Here's my opinion on the draft pick. I always want the earlier pick. It gives your coach more options. There is probably an 80 % chance that Dipoto gets the same guy at 7 as he would at 6, but it just takes 1 team ahead of you to like the same guy. Look at Kelenic for example. Mariners would have taken him at any point in the draft most likley. Had they been picking 8, they probably don't get him because of the Mets. With Kyle Lewis however, he was probably top 5-6 on their board, and somehow fell to them at 11.

The ideal situation is that all of our prospects currently in the bigs like JP, Lewis, Long et al play great and the filler plays terribly so we lose and get better draft position. But that is probably too much to ask for. Given the choice of Lewis having his current 1.100 OPS and a lower pick or a 400 OPS and a higher pick, I will choose the former all day every day.

I'd rather see the young guys get their early career failures out of the way earlier than have success now when it matters in reverse anyway. Give them a chance to adjust earlier because nearly everyone falls on their face at some point early and has to learn.

Mike Trout 2011: 40 games 135 PA of .220/.281/.390 .672 for instance.

[DavidGee24]

Most young players, if they fail, are going to continue to fail. Trout is so gifted that his first experience didn't matter. None of these young men have his ability. If Dunn, Sheffield, Lewis, Walton, Fraley, etc. all go out there and fall on their faces and play like a bunch of losers, that's what they're going to take into the off season with them. They're human beings. They're young men. They're not avatars on MLB The Show. Screw their meaningless draft position. We need these young men going into the off season feeling like they can play with the big boys.

[Wishhiker]

Most young players, if they fail, are going to continue to fail.

That is absolutely untrue. Just going down the 2019 All-Star game AL box score...
George Springer 23 Games in .215/.270/.323 .593
Francisco Lindor 44 Games in .251/.284/.369 .653
D.J. Lamahieu 37 Game cuppa .250/.262/.283 .546
Gleyber Torres 49 G stretch of .208/.284/.410 .694 amid a solid rookie year otherwise, but that's struggle
Mike Trout I covered already
Whit Merrifield 56 Games in .271/.304/.376 .680
Carlos Santana lat 27 rookie G .211/.362/.322 .684
Jose Abreu at 27 from Cuba hit the ground running. He's the rarity, like Ichiro.
J.D. Martinez 252 Games in, career .251/.300/.387 .687
Vogelbach is still establishing himself but I've had this discussion before because of Vog being frozen for low PA struggles
Alex Bregman 21 games in .198/.255/.291 .546
Matt Chapman 18 games in .177/.250/.371 .621
Gary Sanchez had 2018 struggles but 2016 was quicky on it
James McCann 452 G in, career .240/.288/.366 .653 before breakout 2019 at 29
Michael Brantley 512 G in, career .277/.330/.382 .711 before breakout at 27 or .246/.296/.327 .623 sophomore season
Austin Meadows last 47 Rookie games .240/.287/.310 .597
Xander Bogaerts 162 Games in .241/.299/.363 .662
Mookie Betts 18 Games in .233/.303/.350 .653
Jorge Polanco last 47 rookie games .269/.318/.390 .708
And Joey Gallo finished his rookie eligibility with a 17G 2016 of .040/.200/.160 .360

That's the entirety of the 2019 AL position players who got PA. I'm not highlighting pitching because your assertion is even less true of them and that should be obvious. Just the hitters it appears more common that it takes years for the stars to put it together than for them to hit from day 1. Regardless, all players struggle. Rookies, sophomores, even veterans struggle. It's the players that can't adjust and learn that never put it together. I want to see these guys adjust and learn.

[DavidGee24]

Sorry, i stand corrected. I had no idea that the 2019 AL All Stars were the only baseball players in the whole entire world and that throughout MLB history there actually haven't been thousands of young prospects who struggled and then didn't become good players. For example, I totally forgot about the three All Star games Dustin Ackley played in and Jesus Montero's two Silver Slugger Awards, not to mention Nick Franklin's two Gold Gloves. Oh, and who can forget Patrick Lennon and Marc Newfield in 1995 carrying the team in Junior's absence?

Ah, reminiscing about all our top prospects that hit it big...and of course that list is not complete without the original Mariner top prospect, Mr. Mariner himself, Al "Choo Choo" Chambers.