Virus Schmirus

[Coeurd’Alene J]

Note here how few cases are two weeks old or more. These recoveries aren't even making a dent in the total active cases because they are dwarfed but the new cases. But in about a week as 99% of those people recover and at the same time new cases begin to slow due to the social distancing and shelter in place mandates have an impact we will start to see a light at the end of the tunnel representing an actual decline of active cases.

Cases.JPG

That’s better news. Hunker down fellas, baseball this yr was gonna suck anyways

[D-train]

Here is my model. I do this for a living so you can assume its valid. It actually almost perfectly replicates what happened in Wuhan with new cases going to zero in about 100 days from 1st case.

Assumptions
After 15 days of testing positive patients are either recovered or dead and thus are deducted from total cases.
Active case=Total cases + new cases - recoveries/deaths
I trended growth rates in new cases through April 15th. Growth rates in new cases have actually been declining for about a week.
Source of total cases: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... in-us.html

[D-train]

Same chart with growth rates in new cases. Actuals through today. Trending through April. 100 days from 1st case on Jan 19th to last case on April 28th.

Capture1.JPG (55 KiB) Viewed 1366 times

[Coeurd’Alene J]

More tds raging

German drugmaker Bayer, which holds the original chloroquine patent, was the first to get involved when Chinese officials approached the company as that nation’s outbreak raged in early February. The experience provided lessons for how to use the drug, said Matthias Berninger, a Bayer public affairs executive, like that it works best when given to people soon after infection, rather than waiting until they’re hospitalized in an intensive care unit and forced to use a respirator.
"Now New York, with 60% of new U.S. corona virus infections, is the emerging front line of the pandemic. Bayer has donated three million pills to the federal government, confident from its experience in China that the drug could push down the number of people who need to go to the hospital — so long as it goes to the right patients."
Thus it isn't crazy old Orange Man with a hare-brained idea.

And Nevada’s governor outlawed the use of it this last week.

[Coeurd’Alene J]

Here’s a wtf moment


The John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts told musicians it will stop paying them Saturday, less than a day after the organization received a divisive $25 million arts bailout.

[D-train]

Here’s a wtf moment


The John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts told musicians it will stop paying them Saturday, less than a day after the organization received a divisive $25 million arts bailout.

Saw that. Beyond belief.

[D-train]

My model predicts 22,043 new cases today. There have been 16,883 so far today.

Coronavirus Cases:
120,204
Deaths:
1,997
Recovered:
3,229

My model has 2234 recovered.

[Double Mocha Man]

Don't ask me to help you reach 22,043.

[Sibelius Hindemith]

I don't understand. How do you know how many new cases there are? And for that matter how do we have any certainty as to the number of people that have had it and recovered without realizing what it was they had? Regarding China, they are liars about everything, including the Wuhan virus numbers. Some people are estimating they had 10x the number of deaths as reported by their governnent.

What we do know is that this particular corona virus is transmitted more easily and more rapidly than others. Makes you think it came out of a lab or something.

[D-train]

I don't understand. How do you know how many new cases there are? And for that matter how do we have any certainty as to the number of people that have had it and recovered without realizing what it was they had? Regarding China, they are liars about everything, including the Wuhan virus numbers. Some people are estimating they had 10x the number of deaths as reported by their governnent.

What we do know is that this particular corona virus is transmitted more easily and more rapidly than others. Makes you think it came out of a lab or something.

New cases are simply Total cases on current day minus Total cases on prior day. Simple math. I can only go on what is reported obviously. Yeah if China is lying then it won't match my model. But my model leads me to believe they aren't lying. They had armies of dudes spraying down the town after all. Maybe it worked.